My Problem With Billionaires

Off Topic
41

[quote]slotan wrote:
On the topic of Gates, I read somewhere that the guy in the IBM who gave Microsoft (then an obscure company) their first contract, was in fact Gates’ mother school friend. That contract enabled Microsoft to get $$$ from every PC IBM shipped, as it had to be shipped with MS-DOS.

That particular contract, in my opinion, is what “created” Microsoft, and I think those kinds of situations are what Mufasa is talking about.
[/quote]

Another example of poor man’s thinking. The rich guy’s got all the right circumstances handed to him. It had nothing to do with the rich guy’s abilities, vision, will power, focus, commitment, guts, etc. It happend only becuase he was lucky.

The level of poor man’s thinking on this board is making me queasy.

42

[quote]slotan wrote:
ZEB,

How was he prepared to succeed? He had access to a computer when most of the people didn’t have a clue what that was. He had a head start. Furthermore, how often does a multi-bilion dollar company like IBM offers that kind of contract to a small software manufacture? Bear in mind that there was nothing truly spectacular about MS-DOS as more advanced operating systems like VMS and Unix had alredy been working back in 1970s.

The thing is, Bill Gates never claimed otherwise. I read all of that in his biography titled “Hard Drive” (I think, it was a while ago).

I’m not trying to take away anything from Mr Gates’ accomplishments. But I’m trying to illustrate that sometimes you have to be at the right place in the right time. I still think that particular contract is the reason Microsoft is THE BIGGEST software company in the whole world. Without it, the competition would’ve catched up sooner and maybe we would have 2 or 3 or more big companies figthing for market with their own operating systems.

But, that’s just my opinion…[/quote]

I appreciate what you are stating. My point however is that had he not been motivated to go forward he would not have been a success regardless of any “luck” that may have come his way.

How many others had access to a computer at that time, but did not become billionaires?

43

The level of arrogance and pride inherent in one not recognizing their blessings and all that they have to be grateful for makes me queasy…

Mufasa

44

Luck plays a lot bigger role than most people want to admit.

However, I prefer to call it “randomness.” The world is more random than most people generally want to believe.

Looking solely at the examples of people who have worked hard and become successful gives you a survivorship bias – kind of like looking at mutual funds that have been successful for 5 years in a row. To get a true picture, you need to look at how many people have also worked hard and failed.

I think I have in mind some of the same things Mufasa probably has in mind – I’m particularly thinking of “The Millionaire Next Door” model of analysis. That book looks only at successful people and tries to figure out what they have in common, and comes to the conclusion that risk-taking behavior is one of the main factors.

However, this analysis completely disregards the fact that risk-taking necessarily means taking on a risk of failure. Someone should cross reference the “Millionaires Next Door” with bankruptcy filings or tax returns that show large losses – that would be an interesting analysis.

To take an extreme example of the “Millionaire Next Door” sort of analysis, if I looked at all lottery winners, I will find that all of them had to play the lottery. If I take from this that playing the lottery will lead you to be a lottery winner, that would be pretty silly. In other words, it’s a necessary condition, but not a sufficient condition – that’s how I view hard work.

Now, none of this is to downplay hard work. It’s just that it has to be combined with talent, the ability to judge risks and take the right ones, and the availability of good opportunities – which I think this country provides pretty well. It’s the “taking the right risks” part that introduces a lot of randomness, especially when by definition you’re taking those risks in a position of large uncertainty. (Of course, this is one reason why diversifying your risks is so important, but that’s another post).

45

I think you could compare this type of success to poker. Yes, luck is a big part of the game… but there’s also a reason you see the same group of guys being successful in every major tournament.

No one accomplishes anything without some degree of luck. But successful, harworking people put themselves in the position to be lucky. A great investment may look like blind luck, but only the person who made it knows how much thought went into it before that investment was made.

Everyone here is lucky enough to have the wealth to be able to afford a computer to rant on forums, dietary suppliments and a few hours a week at the gym… the question is who will take the BIG risks? Who will put their livelyhood on the line to better their financial situation?

46

If the word luck is defined as the random occurrence of success given a level of risk, then sure, luck is part of the equation.

If, however, luck is defined as just being in the right place at the right time, or that anybody could be successful had they been in the same circumstance, then I think the word takes away from the hard work, sacrifices and risks people have made to achieve their success.

Without a doubt there is an unknown variable that determines success vs failure that appears to be random, or at least there doesn’t seem to be a way to predict it. In which case, luck or randomness or any other word can be used to describe it. However, much of what I’m reading about in this thread is about people sitting on the sideline, never taking the risk, and complaining they aren’t lucky. You can’t be lucky (if we want to define luck as the random variable of success given an action of risk) if you never do anything to put yourself in a position to get lucky. If you never risk anything, you’ll never have the opportunity to get lucky or random or whatever it is that determines the probability of success (which only happens if you play the game…which requires hard work, sacrifice and risk).

47

Mufasa,

Using the word dumb was ignorant and incorrect. “Business savvy” would be a far better phrase. Getting in line for promotions and more responsibilty isn’t very hard. Many people do it successfully every year. Do good work, arrive early, stay late, ask for more work, don’t be a cocksucker. Do things like that and you will end up getting promoted. Catching breaks is a lot easier when you put yourself in the position to catch em’. I will admit there is luck in the world, but I feel you and others overplay its importance. There will be luck when two guys with the exact same LSAT scores and grades from similar schools apply to Law School, but it is not luck when someone studies hard and gets a good score to get in. I’m starting to see instances where your point makes sense, but at the same time I don’t feel like there is a great murkiness out there that randomly selects people to be great or rich.

48

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
The level of arrogance and pride inherent in one not recognizing their blessings and all that they have to be grateful for makes me queasy…

Mufasa[/quote]

In my case it’s not arrogance or pride. No more so than when I look in the mirror and think about how that skinny kid started out trying to build muscle so many years ago. It wasn’t luck that built my body to the point that it is now. And it wasn’t luck that built my business to the point it is now.

When you accomplish something worthwhile in any area of your life do you honestly think you did it because of luck?

49

Thanks for the clarification, Garrett!

Okay…

I’m begging…please, PLEASE (with sugar on Top!)…[u] PLEASE READ THE THREAD CAREFULLY[/u] before jumping to the conclusion that at any point I was suggesting that luck/random occurances/blessings…whatever you wish to call them…are more important than risk-taking, hard work and motivation…

But to ignore them completely (in my opinion) is somewhat arrogant and disenginuous…and causes people to look at those who are not successful as being whining, lazy, non-risk-takers who are afflicted with “poor man’s thinking” and envy for what others have…

Some most certainly are lazy, envious non-risk takers…but for many, nothing could be furthur from the truth…

Mufasa

50

[quote]ZEB wrote:
In my case it’s not arrogance or pride. No more so than when I look in the mirror and think about how that skinny kid started out trying to build muscle so many years ago. It wasn’t luck that built my body to the point that it is now. And it wasn’t luck that built my business to the point it is now.

When you accomplish something worthwhile in any area of your life do you honestly think you did it because of luck?
[/quote]

No. But do you think it honestly played none?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m on your side for most of this thread, but some ‘chance’ ‘luck’ randomness’ is involved in most every part of our life.

P.S. Rest in peace JP2

51

Mufasa:

I don’t think any of those things. If someone is happy with their current job and has no desire to be financially independent than they are already satisfied! No problem.

However, to those who pine away each day wishing they were financially independent, thinking that it’s impossible, and secretly cursing those who are, that’s when I have a problem.

52

I agree with a lot of what BB said on this issue. But let me put some additional info on the table.

I work 8-10 hours every weekday on my primary job. After work, I work a second job for a few hours. I work weekends on a third job. Luckily for me, I have friends who have helped me out with buying a house, and learning how to do some of the home repair that I never learned growing up. I’m strapped right now, because of the house.

Now, I’m sure I’ll be just fine as I get older. I’ll probably never be a billionaire, but I’ll be able to have a decent retirement and afford to do a lot of the things that I want to do.

I am sick of people making the argument that you can’t “get by” in America. That’s just not true.

However, I also get annoyed at people who like to spout off how “easy” it is to get rich. No, it isn’t. I work long hours, and I don’t have time to research stocks all day. When I have, it hasn’t really seemed to help the probability that they do well. I do what I can, investing in mutual funds and diversifying my risk. But it frustrates me when (and especially when) kids in business school act like I’m a moron because I don’t have ten million dollars, yet. And it pisses me off when people imply that I’m not working “hard enough.”

Yes, being incredibly wealthy requires talent, skill, timing and hard work. And more than a little luck… having the right ideas at the right time, and having the means to implement those ideas while they’re still fresh.

53

[quote]randman wrote:
Another example of poor man’s thinking. The rich guy’s got all the right circumstances handed to him. It had nothing to do with the rich guy’s abilities, vision, will power, focus, commitment, guts, etc. It happend only becuase he was lucky.

The level of poor man’s thinking on this board is making me queasy.[/quote]

You’re reading way too much into my post. Never have I said that luck is the most deciding factor in one’s success. But, it is certainly one of the factors. And it Gates’ case, I believe, it’s the difference between a multi-bilion and a multi-milion dollar company. I hope this makes it clear for you.

I don’t have any problem as to how a person got to be rich… well, as long as it is legal. What bothers me is when people talk how easy it is to get rich, that you just need focus, that you just need to believe in yourself etc.

Like with weightlifting/bodybuilding, in order to succeed you need have the knowledge about the issue (think T-Mag), need to work hard (squatting 10x3 in the gym) and have discipline. When you get all these, you can make some great progress. But, to reach world class you also need to start early (before the competition), have a good coach (initial resources) and great genetics (“luck” or randomness). Same with business…

54

Mufasa, you are right on. Luck is at least as big a factor as all the other traits required to make a $ billion.

Lots of people have all the other characteristics noted, but not too many people are billionaires.

I had the misfortune of working for a billionaire that would have made the Forbes list if all his money wasn’t private. He didn’t earn a dime of it. He was born to the right father.

Just remember a camel has a better chance passing though the eye of a needle than a rich man getting into heaven.

55

[quote]sasquatch wrote:
ZEB wrote:
In my case it’s not arrogance or pride. No more so than when I look in the mirror and think about how that skinny kid started out trying to build muscle so many years ago. It wasn’t luck that built my body to the point that it is now. And it wasn’t luck that built my business to the point it is now.

When you accomplish something worthwhile in any area of your life do you honestly think you did it because of luck?

No. But do you think it honestly played none?
Don’t get me wrong, I’m on your side for most of this thread, but some ‘chance’ ‘luck’ randomness’ is involved in most every part of our life.

P.S. Rest in peace JP2[/quote]

Actually as I think I have stated (perhaps not clearly enough) “luck,” as in something positive happening through no act of your own, happens to everyone, to some degree. It’s the person who is prepared, ready and willing to take a risk and has their eye out for the opportunity is the one who gets ahead. Some will claim that it was luck all along, not being privy to the mans hidden desires, talents or plans.

56

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
The level of arrogance and pride inherent in one not recognizing their blessings and all that they have to be grateful for makes me queasy…

Mufasa[/quote]

I didn’t address any of your posts yet because it just sounded like a bunch of whining about how the rich get all the breaks and I didn’t want to waste my time. But now I will since you so graciously decided to address mine.

First, a lot of this motivational stuff you’re putting down has helped me tremendously. I’ve learned a lot of life skills through personal growth books, courses and events and honestly believe I would not be in the position I’m in or earning the income I’m earning without my 5 years of soaking up everything I could and applying it.

It’s easy to write off all people’s accomplishments as luck when you don’t believe you can succeed in life yourself.

It sounds like your position is that you have to be fed a silver spoon to be successful. This couldn’t be further from the truth.

I could give you thousands of examples of rags to riches stories but I’ll give you one to start. If you try to explain this one away, I’ll give you another example. And then another.

Take for instance, Dhirubhai Ambani, the founder and chairman of India’s largest private sector company Reliance Industries who began his working life as a gas station attendant.

He started as a gas station attendant in India and died a billionaire. So what say you?

57

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Thanks for the clarification, Garrett!

Okay…

I’m begging…please, PLEASE (with sugar on Top!)…[u] PLEASE READ THE THREAD CAREFULLY[/u] before jumping to the conclusion that at any point I was suggesting that luck/random occurances/blessings…whatever you wish to call them…are more important than risk-taking, hard work and motivation…

But to ignore them completely (in my opinion) is somewhat arrogant and disenginuous…and causes people to look at those who are not successful as being whining, lazy, non-risk-takers who are afflicted with “poor man’s thinking” and envy for what others have…

Some most certainly are lazy, envious non-risk takers…but for many, nothing could be furthur from the truth…

Mufasa[/quote]

Everyone experiences luck to some degree. So what is your point to this post? It just seems like your focusing on any negative point you can against successful people because it makes you feel better.

While you’re sitting here bitching about how people are just lucky and they’ve been fed silver spoons, they’re busy becoming more and more successful. I guess if it makes you feel better, continue to explain way others accomplishments. I hear it can be therapeutic.

58

http://images.t-nation.com/forum_images/./1/.1112576838150.Straw_Man.jpg

randman:

Not ONE thing that you argued was the point of my post…

Mufasa

59

First of all, I think that hard work is the cornerstone for obtaining wealth. I also think that luck always plays some role in the crux of human success. That being said, it is certainly possible to obtain great wealth with only mediocre luck. However, when you speak of billionaires (as does this thread), you are referring to the uber-elite among financial giants. At this point of economic success, there has to be something playing a role rather than good ol’ hard work.

Consider this… You are born into a middle class family. You attend public school from 1st to 12th grades. You attend a state school for undergrad, as that is where the scholarship money is. You work your your mind to its limits in undergrad, graduating summa cum laude and getting accepted into Harvard med school. You go on to do residency at Johns Hopkins in orthopedic surgery. You enter into a practice where you make $180K out-the-door and $300K after ten years of practice. You worked your dick into the ground, and you are a millionaire. However, if you wanted to crack into billionaire status, you would need to work for about 300 years, not deducting for taxes, living expenses, and student loans! Even if you could double your income with investments (someone please tell me how to do this), you still are looking at over a century of work!

Billionaires are not made with hard work alone. Something has to be done that is original, effective, marketable, and most importantly… appreciated by the right person, at the right time, with the right authority. Hard work can certainly make a person wealthy; however, if a person wants to step into the highest echelon of economic success, something has to be accomplished that is truly monumental, and that something has to be seen by the a significant number of people with a significant amount of power. Billionaires are not made with work ethic alone, although that is certainly a key ingredient. Similarly, professional bodybuilders are not made with hard work alone. In this case, genetics are a key factor–not the sole factor, but essential. I can train, diet, and juice as much as I want, and I’ll never set foot on an Olympia stage.

One last thing…

Randman:

Mufasa is too nice of a guy to say this, so I will. I rarely call out anyone on these forums, but your responses to his posts on this thread are downright asshole-ish. Consider employing some tact next time you wish to disagree with someone.

~Terumo

60

Terumo, You’re right. I’ve got to refrain from posting until after the VD. I’ve definitely been moody. On the other hand, I do admit to reacting badly to anything that remotely whiffs of whining.

Regardless, I guess I’m just trying to understand what rich people are saying getting rich is easy that Mufasa is referring to. The only ones I can think of are the real estate guys that do the informercials on late night tv. And those guys are getting rich by the poor souls who by their crap.

But who are all these other rich people touting the ease of riches? I’ve read quite a number of biographies of very rich people and they had to go through bankruptcies, heartache, pain, divorces, etc during their path to becoming a finanical success. And they didn’t tout anywhere that getting rich was easy. Maybe you’re not reading the right success stories.

Have I successfully gotten back to the original statement now instead of throwing up straw man arguments?