Your Election Prediction

Catching up on this thread has been fun…

Hey CPA with a decade plus experience in public accounting, you’re wrong. I read this article that says so.

Hey business owners, you’re wrong, I read this article that says so.

Hey CMA with a BS in accounting (MS in accounting by years end) with a decades worth of experience in multiple areas including non-profit & governmental accounting and corporate finance, you’re wrong. I read this article that says so.

This place cracks me up some times.

Btw, I co-authored a research paper last year that is in the process of being published. It was around 20 pages and we had around 25 sources. The idea that this study should be taken seriously because of the number of sources is just laugahble…

Aero, my friend, you seem like a good guy, but you really need to break out of the ideological prison you’ve built for yourself. It’s abundantly clear that you don’t read and/or think about counter arguments to the narrative you’ve accepted as the truth.

This is a problem for a lot of people, but I think you can be better.

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When was the last time this wasn’t true in a presidential election?

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This undoubtedly will be ignored.

My entire lifetime it has been the case.

Same here. I’m not sure it was ever any different.

I really don’t know about any of that. It’s true that Dems tend to have a polling bias, but it’s also true that Trump as underperformed the majority of his primary polls in his wins or placements. Granted the general is a different animal, but I don’t think it’s near that clear cut.

Also I really don’t see this FBI indictment thing going anywhere. I’d love it if it does, but it seems to me it is dragging on too long at this point. It should, but I don’t know that it will.

In addition I think this has some interesting things to say about Trump’s trajectory thus far: Trump Isn’t Winning Enough White Voters | FiveThirtyEight

In addition the Democrat peace process is going to be much easier than the GoP’s. I said this elsewhere but if Bernie–who is leveraging for influence here even as he steps down gradually–comes out and supports Hillary a lot of the Bern supporters will hold their noses and vote for her. There will be hold-outs, but I don’t think as many as people believe provided Sanders comes out and endorses Hillary.

Agree with you 100%, but as always if you want successful marketing–in ANY field–you have to message properly in a way that resonate with the target market. The old saying goes that “perception is reality” and even though it is sad–much like a scab that is picked at so many times it gets red and irritated–anything said to the African American voting block will be irritating if it is not messaged very carefully at all times. This is a long game thing, certainly not about to swing in the next 2 election cycles…or probably 4.

It definitely does not help when Trump is shooting his mouth off either

I agree with you. But, as I have been saying it will be all about turnout. Will the Bernie supporters be excited to vote for Hillary? Will most Hillary supporters be excited to vote for Hillary? I think Trump wins, not because more people want him over Hillary. But, because his core supporters are very excited and will march through hell to cast their ballot. And in the end, like all elections at every level, it is all about turnout.

Now when is the last time we had three democrat administrations in a row? Franklin Roosevelt to Harry Truman…about 70 years ago. There’s a reason for that. Do people want a third Obama term without the charisma of Obama? I doubt it.

As I have said and will stand by…Trump can be down by 3 to 4 points going into the election and win it.

And that is what I would do should I suddenly be in charge of a national campaign. But for message board purposes I will stick to the less politically correct lingo…you will forgive me I hope.

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I wasn’t worried about message boards, I was just making the general point about the population at large

See, I am not sure she will. I would like her to…but then I believe a lot of the electorate is too far gone to respond rationally. We get what we deserve after all…

Truer words were never spoken. And that’s why we have the two candidates that we have. I am literally choosing the lesser of two evils.

Fair point. You’re not wrong either. We can only wait and see at this point. It depends on which side of bed I wake up on as to what I think happens…the cynic or the optimist

Why do you like Nate Silver? He’s been an absolute disaster predicting Trump

I think everyone has been a disaster predicting Trump. No one has been right, which means everyone has been wrong. I knew this contingent of voters was out there, I just wondered who it would take to stir the nest and wake them up.

The media is scared shitless because for the first time, they don’t control the narrative, making them and their jobs useless. We live in a world what is known as the Mushroom Theory (feed them shit and keep them in the dark).

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You are spot on with that. But, look for “The Media Strikes Back” after both conventions. If you think they are going to sit back and watch Hillary Clinton lose without absolutely going all the way in their attempts to tear Trump apart you are mistaken. Not that the public is going to buy it, but it will be a herculean effort on the mainstream liberal media’s part.

The media is already complicit in violence against Trump supporters, some have called it justified, but it will only help Trump.

The reason the media lost this war, is because they keep painting Trump as a dirtbag, something people already knew. That doesn’t make him incompetent, feckless, or dithering.

Let’s keep in mind, this same media suggested that Obama would be messianic in terms of what he could do, that is how far off their political barometer was. So when they say Trump will be a disaster, it makes you wonder, ya know ?

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Guess again

BTW it was just announced Mateen’s wife knew about the planned attack and is now being arrested possibly charged.

Trump - take out terrorist families, he said

Ha well said my friend.