T Nation

Your Election Prediction


#1

Creating this thread for people to post who they predict will win in November.

I'm curious what the split is on people who believe Trump will become president vs Hillary on PWI.

This thread is not about which candidate you like or dislike but specifically for predictions of who will win.

So let's hear it

Edit: I'd prefer that people start off their posts with " I predict X candidate here's why"

Just makes seeing how predictions are lining up a lot easier


#2

I'll start by predicting Trump wins handily in November.


#3

It is being reported that Trump has officially reached the threshold for the nomination. I think he beats Hillary, but not handily.


#4

I'm saying Clinton wins in a landslide.

Not Nixon/McGovern landslide, but more like Johnson/Goldwater landslide.

Her win will push FDR out of the top five in blowouts.


#5

I will vote for Trump and I think most of the "anybody but Trump" Republicans will hold their nose and vote for him in the end. However, if the Democrats are able to get everyone to put down their Obama phones, turn off their big screen TVs and leave their government housing long enough to go vote, he has no chance. It could be the landslide that Beans predicts above.


#6

Republican turnout has been notably higher, while Democratic turnout has been lower. We also haven't begun to see the campaign against the pant suit, nor the outcome of the pending indictment. I don't believe she will be indicted for shit, but the fallout from that plus the FBI leaking the indictment will take a toll with Independents.


#7

It's not the 70's and she doesn't have the integrity of Nixon.

People don't care that their POTUS is a shitbag anymore. Elections are, 100% about StarPower now and identity politics. Issues are used as a smoke screen to cover up bias.

Clinton and Trump could literally switch parties tomorrow and 90% of people would just start defending the person they called hitler the day before. (I don't think this has changed one ounce in the last 240 years but maybe.)

She isn't getting indicted and short of actually going to prison, she won't loss vote share for any of the email stuff. It's 2016.


#8

Yeah Trump has gotten the most votes in history for a Republican nominee.

There are also polls showing 20% of registered Democrats want to vote for Trump


#9

There were polls showing Romney winning this far out too.

as for turnout: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/primary-turnout-means-nothing-for-the-general-election/

The left destroyed Romney, and the social media meme game helped. Trump is better there than Romney, but much worse when it comes to actual experience and tact.

Is it possible the world has changed enough for a populous candidate with negatives comparable to David Duke to win? Sure. Do I think it has? Nah.


Wealth Inequality in America
#10

It all hinges on two people.

Teh Bern and Gary Johnson.

Of Bernie can convince all his loony followers to vote for Hillary, she wipes everybody. If not it is all up for grabs.

If Bern goes rogue, and Johnson gets funding....it's gonna be the wild west up in this motherfucker.


#11

I absolutely hate that you are right about this, but I think you are.


#12

Yeah... It's sad in a way, but also expected.

I think the pendulum will swing back eventually, but we'll be right fucked as a nation by that point.


#13
  1. First off we don't know who the democrats will end up with as their nominee. Should Hillary get indicted and Bernie take the helm Trump will wipe him out. Polls showing Bernie beating Trump are meaningless as there has been very few negative ads run against Bernie to date. When people are educated as to what Socialism is and they start paying attention to a hunched over old man, Trump beats him in a landslide.

  2. Assuming Hillary is not indicted but recommended for indictment by the FBI after she grabs the nomination she will be able to march on as an indictment is only an accusation which she can say is not justified. Naturally under these conditions Trump wins big.

  3. Assuming that Hillary is not indicted and there is no recommendation for indictment it will be a much closer race. But, I will call Trump for a few reasons:

A. He will gain more democrat votes than any candidate since Ronald Reagan as Therajraj has already stated probably in the 20% range. This means he possibly wins in states that republicans have not won in years, PA, Michigan, Wisconsin, Virginia could all go to Trump. If you add the traditional red states and throw in Ohio which he will win and Florida which if he wins a few blue states he won't need and you have a Trump victory by a reasonable margin.

B. Hillary's negatives are currently at 61% Trump's are at 56%. Both incredibly high per historical levels for Presidential candidates. But nonetheless Trump has already lowered his incredibly high 67% negative rate by 11 pts. in only 30 days or so. As I have been saying people are fickle.

C. It has already been said on this thread that Trump has received more primary votes than any other republican in history. And he did it mostly running against a multitude of candidates. That momentum will continue whereas Hillary has no momentum and no excitement attached to her campaign. That could change but for some reason I doubt it that happens.

Finally, if Hillary is indicted before the convention and they toss her to the sidelines along with Bernie and parachute in someone like Joe Biden there will be hell to pay with the Bernie sanders followers along with many feminists who would prefer Warren. In that case I still see Trump winning.

So, I'm thinking Trump wins almost regardless. But the democrats could pull off some sort of genius move to beat him as he is easily beatable. However, I will stick to my long held prediction that Hillary Clinton will never become President. Not because I don't like her but because she is the single worst candidate in every category that the democrats have put up (if they do) in modern times.


#14

And what if they throw in one more candidate who is a real conservative?

already I've never seen anything like this and it could get even crazier as you suggest.


#15

There's going to be a Trump vs Bernie debate on June 7 so I think the socialist vs the capitalist theme will come out then


#16

Are you sure about the date of June 7 for a debate ? The California primary is June 7, I can't see ol' Bern debating Grump on the same day.


#17

Yeah I think it will probably happen before


#18

Trump is smart on this one actually....treating Bern as a legit candidate. That will empower his followers and make them even more bitter when Hillary gets the inevitable nomination.


#19

That debate would be dumb for Trump.

Bernout has nothing to lose at this point, and will go full on "go to the gulag" which his dipshit supporters will eat up, and we'll have to read how American is DS already because muh roads for another 6 weeks.

trump on the other hand has nothing to gain here. Bernout won't trash Clinton, and instead just pimp his gibmedats for the masses. Trump needs to focus on Hillary, not arguing with an angry old commie.


#20

I agree with Beans, the way things currently stand Hillary will win huge. Take a look at the electoral map.

Key factors are (as Lama mentioned) if Bernie runs third party, if anybody else runs third/fourth party, and if Hillary gets indicted. I don't think they will happen, but they are the only chance Trump has.