T Nation

Yoohoo Dr. Pangloss


#1

Here's a competition that just might be right up your alley:

http://www.teslamotorsclub.com/showthread.php/28183-Short-term-vs-Long-term-investing/page5

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.


#2

Very interesting, but I’m no trader. Barely a good guesser.

Looks like you guys are having a lot of fun with all of that nice growth though.


#3

That website just made me realize how stupid I am :frowning:


#4

[quote]Phoenix44e wrote:
That website just made me realize how stupid I am :([/quote]

Don’t feel dumb too soon. TSLA is doing great right now, but the exchanges are filled with rags to riches to can’t even afford rags stories.


#5

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:

[quote]Phoenix44e wrote:
That website just made me realize how stupid I am :([/quote]

Don’t feel dumb too soon. TSLA is doing great right now, but the exchanges are filled with rags to riches to can’t even afford rags stories.
[/quote]

I was refering more towards the fact that I spend a couple minutes on that website and realized I don’t know shit about the stock market.


#6

Do these people even know what they are doing? Sounds like they were just early tesla fans who got lucky on that stock. Now that its already up that strategy no longer works.


#7

[quote]sufiandy wrote:
Do these people even know what they are doing? Sounds like they were just early tesla fans who got lucky on that stock. Now that its already up that strategy no longer works.[/quote]

Some of them do some of them don’t. Everyone who might give that contest a go is not so much an investor as they are a trader. They don’t need Tesla to work their magic they just need to have a good idea when a stock is likely to make a big move in one direction or another.

Make no mistake though, no one is going to turn 5,500 in one million in just 5 years.


#8

Thanks OE!

I just got back from a week out of town, I’ll look at more of the website later but it looks like an entertaining read.

I was on the floor of an exchange for a long time and have seen some incredible trades. I saw the same guy make $1MM in less than a day on 2 separate occasions. [Note: lots of jargon ahead] The first was a huge fuck up by a bank. They offered a couple hundred FX call options for only their intrinsic value, no time value attached. The trader bought the first 200, and then as is custom, asked the bank to check their price. Banks HATE being lifted by individual traders, so the bank offered another 200 and the trader bought them. The trader in the pit asked the bank broker if he had any more, and then the bank brokers face went white when he realized what he (actually his client on the phone) had done. $1MM winner, instantly.

The next trade was the single greatest trade I ever witnessed. The same trader as above walks into an emerging markets FX pit and asks what the bid and offer are. Bank makes him a market for $20MM a few pips wide, and this guy offers the same amount in the middle. The market doesn’t move for 10 or 15 minutes, then the bank lifts the trader on $20MM. The trader is short the currency and over the next 4 hours, apropos of nothing, it completely falls apart and this guy nets $1MM by the end of the day.

There are tons of stories like that.


#9

Reading over the thread, I don’t think you’re allowed to trade on margin out of an IRA account. In fact, I’m nearly certain of it. If you want to trade futures or options, you need to have the full notional value of the contract in the account. That would greatly adjust returns downwards.


#10

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.


#11

Who was the financier who said that he sold all of his stock holdings when his shoe-shine boy started giving him stock tips?


#12

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.[/quote]

I think you were the one who started the pot thread, did you ever buy PHOT? I guess that and others are having issues recently.


#13

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.[/quote]

My other ones have been a little goofy too. Some of the stuff I’ve read said that this type of behavior is pretty typical of the end of the first/beginning of the second quarter. I used it to adjust by dumping one that has been a bummer for while and re-allocate that to another one while it was in a dip. Increased my position a little and it perked back up nicely.

Sometimes it’s hard to tell when to move and when to not flinch.


#14

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
Who was the financier who said that he sold all of his stock holdings when his shoe-shine boy started giving him stock tips?

[/quote]

I don’t know but that’s basically the same idea.


#15

[quote]sufiandy wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.[/quote]

I think you were the one who started the pot thread, did you ever buy PHOT? I guess that and others are having issues recently.[/quote]

Last I checked PHOT would have been the one to buy. Unfortunately I bought MDBX. I have the bad habit of doing most my research after I buy a stock. This one turns out to be run by a complete shyster. I should have sold it the moment I figured out this guys bad character but I’ve held out in hopes of the pot hype making it spike up so I can at least make a profit. I should really sell in Monday morning 1st thing. That would be the smart thing to do.


#16

[quote]SkyzykS wrote:
Sometimes it’s hard to tell when to move and when to not flinch.
[/quote]

Absolutely. A couple months ago when the market was taking a dip I wasn’t worried at all. This time, even though it hasn’t gone down as much, it feels different to me. I think it might be best to be taking profits right now. I’m not sure if I will act on that thought though.


#17

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]sufiandy wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.[/quote]

I think you were the one who started the pot thread, did you ever buy PHOT? I guess that and others are having issues recently.[/quote]

Last I checked PHOT would have been the one to buy. Unfortunately I bought MDBX. I have the bad habit of doing most my research after I buy a stock. This one turns out to be run by a complete shyster. I should have sold it the moment I figured out this guys bad character but I’ve held out in hopes of the pot hype making it spike up so I can at least make a profit. I should really sell in Monday morning 1st thing. That would be the smart thing to do.[/quote]

Check the news for it, suspended trading. I had bought it before you started the thread, luckily not that much so even at 100% loss it wouldn’t be my worst of the year.


#18

[quote]sufiandy wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.[/quote]

I think you were the one who started the pot thread, did you ever buy PHOT? I guess that and others are having issues recently.[/quote]

I wish that I would have seen that thread, I have done a lot of research on these companies when these medical marijuana companies started going public and came to the conclusion that none of them are worth buying. I remember a lot of threads on the subject had people getting all excited about the stocks. The biggest reason I heard was something along the lines of “people love smoking pot so let’s get in on this while the stocks are cheap.”

The major problem with this line of thinking is that when considering stocks one must look not just at the product, but more importantly the people running the business and their business model. Unfortunately these medical marijuana businesses almost always fail to have a good, and in some cases any, product and are run by shady and/or unexperienced people. Really think about the client base for medical marijuana: cancer patients, and other sick people. Even taking into account all the people getting prescriptions illegally there are not that many people buying medical marijuana and the growth is pretty limited. If you want to invest in drugs, go for ones that are available to the general population like tobacco and alcohol or legitimate pharmaceutical companies. There are some great tobacco stocks that consistently pay high dividends. The bottom line here is that until pot becomes legal to sell to the general population, pot stocks are going to remain a bad investment.


#19

[quote]Dr. Pangloss wrote:
Who was the financier who said that he sold all of his stock holdings when his shoe-shine boy started giving him stock tips?

[/quote]

Joseph Kennedy. Though I first thought it was Jesse Livermore until I looked it up.


#20

[quote]Dr.Matt581 wrote:

[quote]sufiandy wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:

[quote]on edge wrote:
Here’s a competition that just might be right up your alley:

Anyone who considers themselves a trading ace might also be interested. I will not be participating but following along for interest and education.[/quote]

The way the market is behaving lately, I’m starting to think this “competition” could have been a glaring sell signal. When people start getting so bold and confident in their ability to make money in the stock market that they come up with games like this, its got to be a sign the markets topping.[/quote]

I think you were the one who started the pot thread, did you ever buy PHOT? I guess that and others are having issues recently.[/quote]

I wish that I would have seen that thread, I have done a lot of research on these companies when these medical marijuana companies started going public and came to the conclusion that none of them are worth buying. I remember a lot of threads on the subject had people getting all excited about the stocks. The biggest reason I heard was something along the lines of “people love smoking pot so let’s get in on this while the stocks are cheap.”

The major problem with this line of thinking is that when considering stocks one must look not just at the product, but more importantly the people running the business and their business model. Unfortunately these medical marijuana businesses almost always fail to have a good, and in some cases any, product and are run by shady and/or unexperienced people. Really think about the client base for medical marijuana: cancer patients, and other sick people. Even taking into account all the people getting prescriptions illegally there are not that many people buying medical marijuana and the growth is pretty limited. If you want to invest in drugs, go for ones that are available to the general population like tobacco and alcohol or legitimate pharmaceutical companies. There are some great tobacco stocks that consistently pay high dividends. The bottom line here is that until pot becomes legal to sell to the general population, pot stocks are going to remain a bad investment.[/quote]

Matt, you’ve already been out of the country for too long. Washington and Colorado have legalized pot for all. More states to come. Soon bong shops will be just like liquor stores.