John Roman wrote:
In 2008 I primarily played 2-5 no limit and made about 17,000 for the year. In 2009 I am playing slightly higher stakes. Between 2-5 and 5-10 (my main game at the moment) I am up $11,380, with 25 winning and 6 losing sessions.
Only 31 sessions, so you play once or twice a week I take it? Doesn’t that seem like too small of a sample set to really pull any conclusions from? Seems like it could all be attributed to variance …?
Not trying to attack, just trying to understand.[/quote]
Well it’s 31 sessions this year, the first of which was on Jan 16th. Took a few weeks off after the holidays. So 31 sessions in about 20 weeks, with the occasional week taken off or missed session. On average I play twice per week.
I had 87 sessions last year, playing mostly 2-5. Over those sessions I won 17,200.00 I think I had about a 73% winning ratio, or a total of 64 winning sessions.
So really I am looking at the lifetime of my play, not just this years.
My tournament stats are pretty good (placed in 90% of tourn I have played in) but I really play only one every 2 months, sometimes less frequently. So it’s hard to say it would even factor in.
Also the field at the event I am playing in is so much larger than the ones I play in (on averate about 3000-4000 entrants) that my numbers aren’t even really statistically relevant.
Basically I am going in knowing that from a purely mathematical perspective, the odds are bad for me. Nevertheless I feel confident enough in my skill to want to take a shot. Afterall, it’s only 1500 to potentially win 600-700K.