I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]
I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]
Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.
But of course he knows that…[/quote]
Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]
Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game. [/quote]
Don’t you think if Obama doesn’t go after Romney and just flashes ivories all night and tries to look ‘presidential’ he will just be coasting to defeat? Not only in the debates , but the election?[/quote]
You will certainly see Obama be more on the offensive than in the first debate. But that’s not saying much as my grandmother could have been more aggressive than Obama in the first debate and she’s 93! My point is Obama must look Presidential, he can’t pull a crazy Joe Biden and try to knock Romney off his game…not that it would work with a seasoned pro like Romney anyway. So his best choice I think is to look Presidential while trying to up his likability numbers. Even if Romney wins the debate on facts he can easily lose in the viewers eye’s if he is too hard on Obama. So we’re going to see a very well prepared Obama who is ready to not only do battle but look Presidential and also flash that million dollar smile whenever he gets the chance. They’ve had a few weeks to remind him of how he got there to begin with and I think he’ll use those talents to the best of his ability this time around.
But, as I’ve said repeatedly, if both men are even on debate skills Obama has a record to defend when it comes to foreign policy and it’s a truly wretched one. Therefore, Romney has that as an advantage and that is something he’s going to have to capitalize on in the second debate. As everything else lines up nicely for Obama. Especially low expectations. He also has a stacked deck with CNN lefty Candy Crowley as the moderator. And a format where the audience can be stacked with Obama supporters. You’ll know just how loaded the audience is with Obama people if the questions start coming in early about Romney responding too early relative to Libyagate, instead of why did Obama lie to the American public for two weeks.
I don’t see how it can get any better for Obama. If he is going to do well in any of the three debates it will be this one. [/quote]
I must say, I didn’t give the format much thought, how is it different from the first one?[/quote]
If they hold the event the way they did four years ago you will see two candidates sitting in high riser chairs with a moderator in between and all three face the audience. This format does not usually lend itself to being quite as confrontational as two men at podiums. The audience interacts with their questions. And here is where it can be stacked for Obama as the questions are obviously screened prior to the event.
I think in this format it is much harder to land a knockout blow. But you can look bad over a period of time if more pressure is put on you from the various questions coming in. [/quote]
Do they alternate questions or both answer the same ones within a prescribed time period? While you may be right in the ‘looking bad over time’ ,unless Romney really cocks many questions over time, I don’t see it being decisive enough to sway anyone. And I really don’t see him doing that in the least, he’s peaking in a big way. Really showing the ‘CEO’ attitude that I thought was missing earlier in his campaign. Obama NEEDS a head to head big win, and if the format doesn’t allow that, while I agree with what you say is possible, it just looks highly unlikely to me. I think the format may even favour Romney as it removes the mano a mano debate element.