T Nation

Winner Of The Presidential Election is....

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
The Right’s hate for the President and their almost obsessive desire to get him out of office is much greater than The Left’s desire to keep the President in office.
Mufasa[/quote]

Doesn’t look like he’s doing too well with independents lately, either. Poor guy. I will for one will be crowing and strutting around here for days if he loses. You don’t come up with novel ideas, like all of sudden being able to force religious organizations to provide insurance which covers contraception, and remain on people’s good side. Especially when your VP shamefully lies about it in a debate.[/quote]

He has done some absolutely horrible things Sloth. Those who wonder why some of us dislike what he’s done only need look at his record. From health care and all the many problems that it has brought with it (forced contraception for the Catholic Church etc.) to his handling of the economy to the Middle East mess. He has just been an awful, awful President. He deserves to lose in a landslide but of course that won’t happen. The MSLM will keep this one very close!

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]

Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]

Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game. [/quote]

Don’t you think if Obama doesn’t go after Romney and just flashes ivories all night and tries to look ‘presidential’ he will just be coasting to defeat? Not only in the debates , but the election?

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]

Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game. [/quote]

Don’t you think if Obama doesn’t go after Romney and just flashes ivories all night and tries to look ‘presidential’ he will just be coasting to defeat? Not only in the debates , but the election?[/quote]

You will certainly see Obama be more on the offensive than in the first debate. But that’s not saying much as my grandmother could have been more aggressive than Obama in the first debate and she’s 93! My point is Obama must look Presidential, he can’t pull a crazy Joe Biden and try to knock Romney off his game…not that it would work with a seasoned pro like Romney anyway. So his best choice I think is to look Presidential while trying to up his likability numbers. Even if Romney wins the debate on facts he can easily lose in the viewers eye’s if he is too hard on Obama. So we’re going to see a very well prepared Obama who is ready to not only do battle but look Presidential and also flash that million dollar smile whenever he gets the chance. They’ve had a few weeks to remind him of how he got there to begin with and I think he’ll use those talents to the best of his ability this time around.

But, as I’ve said repeatedly, if both men are even on debate skills Obama has a record to defend when it comes to foreign policy and it’s a truly wretched one. Therefore, Romney has that as an advantage and that is something he’s going to have to capitalize on in the second debate. As everything else lines up nicely for Obama. Especially low expectations. He also has a stacked deck with CNN lefty Candy Crowley as the moderator. And a format where the audience can be stacked with Obama supporters. You’ll know just how loaded the audience is with Obama people if the questions start coming in early about Romney responding too early relative to Libyagate, instead of why did Obama lie to the American public for two weeks.

I don’t see how it can get any better for Obama. If he is going to do well in any of the three debates it will be this one.

Neuro:

To me it’s like the guy who clips the first hurdle in the 100 meter hurdles.

I just don’t see how the President can “overcome” what was an awful first debate performance.

All Romney has to do is remain moderate; maybe press a little on Foreign Policy; and keep his cool.

Mufasa

Obama significantly

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]

Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game. [/quote]

Don’t you think if Obama doesn’t go after Romney and just flashes ivories all night and tries to look ‘presidential’ he will just be coasting to defeat? Not only in the debates , but the election?[/quote]

You will certainly see Obama be more on the offensive than in the first debate. But that’s not saying much as my grandmother could have been more aggressive than Obama in the first debate and she’s 93! My point is Obama must look Presidential, he can’t pull a crazy Joe Biden and try to knock Romney off his game…not that it would work with a seasoned pro like Romney anyway. So his best choice I think is to look Presidential while trying to up his likability numbers. Even if Romney wins the debate on facts he can easily lose in the viewers eye’s if he is too hard on Obama. So we’re going to see a very well prepared Obama who is ready to not only do battle but look Presidential and also flash that million dollar smile whenever he gets the chance. They’ve had a few weeks to remind him of how he got there to begin with and I think he’ll use those talents to the best of his ability this time around.

But, as I’ve said repeatedly, if both men are even on debate skills Obama has a record to defend when it comes to foreign policy and it’s a truly wretched one. Therefore, Romney has that as an advantage and that is something he’s going to have to capitalize on in the second debate. As everything else lines up nicely for Obama. Especially low expectations. He also has a stacked deck with CNN lefty Candy Crowley as the moderator. And a format where the audience can be stacked with Obama supporters. You’ll know just how loaded the audience is with Obama people if the questions start coming in early about Romney responding too early relative to Libyagate, instead of why did Obama lie to the American public for two weeks.

I don’t see how it can get any better for Obama. If he is going to do well in any of the three debates it will be this one. [/quote]

I must say, I didn’t give the format much thought, how is it different from the first one?

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Neuro:

To me it’s like the guy who clips the first hurdle in the 100 meter hurdles.

I just don’t see how the President can “overcome” what was an awful first debate performance.

All Romney has to do is remain moderate; maybe press a little on Foreign Policy; and keep his cool.

Mufasa
[/quote]

I agree with you. Plus I think Romney is coming on song personally. And his campaign is peaking at the right time ,generally.

The Format is one in which questions come from the audience and online.

Mufasa

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]

Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game. [/quote]

Don’t you think if Obama doesn’t go after Romney and just flashes ivories all night and tries to look ‘presidential’ he will just be coasting to defeat? Not only in the debates , but the election?[/quote]

You will certainly see Obama be more on the offensive than in the first debate. But that’s not saying much as my grandmother could have been more aggressive than Obama in the first debate and she’s 93! My point is Obama must look Presidential, he can’t pull a crazy Joe Biden and try to knock Romney off his game…not that it would work with a seasoned pro like Romney anyway. So his best choice I think is to look Presidential while trying to up his likability numbers. Even if Romney wins the debate on facts he can easily lose in the viewers eye’s if he is too hard on Obama. So we’re going to see a very well prepared Obama who is ready to not only do battle but look Presidential and also flash that million dollar smile whenever he gets the chance. They’ve had a few weeks to remind him of how he got there to begin with and I think he’ll use those talents to the best of his ability this time around.

But, as I’ve said repeatedly, if both men are even on debate skills Obama has a record to defend when it comes to foreign policy and it’s a truly wretched one. Therefore, Romney has that as an advantage and that is something he’s going to have to capitalize on in the second debate. As everything else lines up nicely for Obama. Especially low expectations. He also has a stacked deck with CNN lefty Candy Crowley as the moderator. And a format where the audience can be stacked with Obama supporters. You’ll know just how loaded the audience is with Obama people if the questions start coming in early about Romney responding too early relative to Libyagate, instead of why did Obama lie to the American public for two weeks.

I don’t see how it can get any better for Obama. If he is going to do well in any of the three debates it will be this one. [/quote]

I must say, I didn’t give the format much thought, how is it different from the first one?[/quote]

If they hold the event the way they did four years ago you will see two candidates sitting in high riser chairs with a moderator in between and all three face the audience. This format does not usually lend itself to being quite as confrontational as two men at podiums. The audience interacts with their questions. And here is where it can be stacked for Obama as the questions are obviously screened prior to the event.

I think in this format it is much harder to land a knockout blow. But you can look bad over a period of time if more pressure is put on you from the various questions coming in.

[quote]doogie wrote:
Romney gets the popular vote, Obama keeps the office.[/quote]

Agree, and the best part of this is dumbass lefty’s will still bitch that we should get rid of the electoral college.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]doogie wrote:
Romney gets the popular vote, Obama keeps the office.[/quote]

Agree, and the best part of this is dumbass lefty’s will still bitch that we should get rid of the electoral college.
[/quote]

I didn’t know that this was exclusive to the Left.

Haven’t BOTH ends of the Political Spectrum hated the Electoral College?

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]doogie wrote:
Romney gets the popular vote, Obama keeps the office.[/quote]

Agree, and the best part of this is dumbass lefty’s will still bitch that we should get rid of the electoral college.
[/quote]

I didn’t know that this was exclusive to the Left.

Haven’t BOTH ends of the Political Spectrum hated the Electoral College?

Mufasa[/quote]

I pretty much only see it from college age “liberals”. I put that in quotes because these people sound like fascists and don’t even know it because they label their ideas with words like “progressive” and borrow obama’s “forward”. I’m at the point where I’m giving liberals a bad name including some of their drones under that label.

Just general jackassery.

Maybe I haven’t paid attention, but I’ve never had a conservative argue to end it. At least not in my personal life, I certainly could have missed a big news cycle though.

I get why people would want to end it, but then again the reason it is there is why they want to end it on some levels, lol.

Obama will be taking the chair for another 6 years

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates. [/quote]

Yes, but remember the TV debate game is one of expectations. All Obama has to do is show up smile and look like he wants to be there and he’s beaten his first performance. And I have a feeling that this is going to be his strategy. Be there be happy, engaged and try not to get hurt. Therefore, Romney has to draw him out so that Obama makes mistakes. Obama cannot be allowed to appear charming and informed. I’d like to see Romney pressure him on a number of things such as Libya. Make him sweat…throw him off his game. [/quote]

Don’t you think if Obama doesn’t go after Romney and just flashes ivories all night and tries to look ‘presidential’ he will just be coasting to defeat? Not only in the debates , but the election?[/quote]

You will certainly see Obama be more on the offensive than in the first debate. But that’s not saying much as my grandmother could have been more aggressive than Obama in the first debate and she’s 93! My point is Obama must look Presidential, he can’t pull a crazy Joe Biden and try to knock Romney off his game…not that it would work with a seasoned pro like Romney anyway. So his best choice I think is to look Presidential while trying to up his likability numbers. Even if Romney wins the debate on facts he can easily lose in the viewers eye’s if he is too hard on Obama. So we’re going to see a very well prepared Obama who is ready to not only do battle but look Presidential and also flash that million dollar smile whenever he gets the chance. They’ve had a few weeks to remind him of how he got there to begin with and I think he’ll use those talents to the best of his ability this time around.

But, as I’ve said repeatedly, if both men are even on debate skills Obama has a record to defend when it comes to foreign policy and it’s a truly wretched one. Therefore, Romney has that as an advantage and that is something he’s going to have to capitalize on in the second debate. As everything else lines up nicely for Obama. Especially low expectations. He also has a stacked deck with CNN lefty Candy Crowley as the moderator. And a format where the audience can be stacked with Obama supporters. You’ll know just how loaded the audience is with Obama people if the questions start coming in early about Romney responding too early relative to Libyagate, instead of why did Obama lie to the American public for two weeks.

I don’t see how it can get any better for Obama. If he is going to do well in any of the three debates it will be this one. [/quote]

I must say, I didn’t give the format much thought, how is it different from the first one?[/quote]

If they hold the event the way they did four years ago you will see two candidates sitting in high riser chairs with a moderator in between and all three face the audience. This format does not usually lend itself to being quite as confrontational as two men at podiums. The audience interacts with their questions. And here is where it can be stacked for Obama as the questions are obviously screened prior to the event.

I think in this format it is much harder to land a knockout blow. But you can look bad over a period of time if more pressure is put on you from the various questions coming in. [/quote]

Do they alternate questions or both answer the same ones within a prescribed time period? While you may be right in the ‘looking bad over time’ ,unless Romney really cocks many questions over time, I don’t see it being decisive enough to sway anyone. And I really don’t see him doing that in the least, he’s peaking in a big way. Really showing the ‘CEO’ attitude that I thought was missing earlier in his campaign. Obama NEEDS a head to head big win, and if the format doesn’t allow that, while I agree with what you say is possible, it just looks highly unlikely to me. I think the format may even favour Romney as it removes the mano a mano debate element.

Romney wins.

Most Democratic polls are based on the prediction that this year’s turnout will be equal to 2008, it won’t. Not even close.

I also think 2 major things happened in the first Prezzy debate. Not only did Romney present himself as a guy who is not Darth Vader and enjoys clubbing baby seals in his spare time, but Obama did not look like the bold dynamic leader painted by the press. For SO long, the media portrayed Romney as a guy who you could NEVER imagine as a President, but in the debate he slammed that door closed. Obama looked tired, like the boring college professor, who only NOW has been challenged. Let’s face it, McCain was no challenge for him in 2008. The President’s ego is his weakness, he thinks he is always right, and Romney would do well to provoke him into showing that.

People should keep in mind, Romney won as a Republican governor in a very Liberal Massachusetts, and passing Romney-care as a GOP guy. Do not underestimate him. I am not saying he is perfect, nor do I have much hope for the guy, as I do not believe that government solves fiscal shit, it can sure make it worse.

Also, not that this matters, but Romney gained 8 points in California, no big deal, but if he can do that in this Liberal mecca, it shows me that the sentiment is changing. Even here, Conservatism is winning, we could not even pass a cigarette tax to fund cancer research, that is how bad the public trust for government has turned.

[quote]waelkd wrote:
Obama will be taking the chair for another 6 years[/quote]

He can take the chair, a memento as he leaves the White House.

[quote]therajraj wrote:
Obama significantly[/quote]

While I think he will win, I think it will be close.

What leads you to believe “significantly”?

Good points re: the electoral college. Obama is still registering a very slight average lead in Iowa and a stronger one in Ohio in the only election forecast that I follow closely.

I still believe that the election has suddenly become Romney’s to lose. I don’t usually put much stock in talk about things like momentum, but the past week has been remarkable for the Republican ticket–it’s almost as if this is a different race altogether.

I don’t think “winning” or “losing” debates from this point forward will have much of an effect. The first debate provided Romney with a massive debate victory, but it also provided him with a national introduction, which he benefited from just as much as “winning”. I don’t think voters who are impressed with Romney after the first debate performance are likely to change their minds.

I’m thinking Romney by a decently comfortable margin - I don’t think it will be a squeaker. The base will turn out against him, and independents - long unhappy with Obama - appear to be pretty happy with Romney.

Personal anecdote? A friend of mine - a 70 year old retiree (a very active one) - not only voted for Obama in 2008, she was a campaign volunteer. Made phone calls. Worked at the local campaign office. Total foot soldier. She told me last night she was on the fence, and leaning Romney, for a number of reasons, one them being Biden’s embarrasing performance.

Also, in my neck of the woods, I know quite a few moderate Democrats who will pull the lever for Romney, including some that are pretty involved in the state party. No idea what that translates into nationally or state-by-state, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a number of moderate Democrats quietly vote for Romney in 2012.