T Nation

Winner Of The Presidential Election is....

I’d like people to post their predictions with 24 days and two more debates to go.

Whom do you feel will win and by what margin will he win by?

Romney in a squeaker. Originally I thought he would win by a fair margin, but the ebb and flow of this campaign has led me to revise to the very scientific term ‘squeaker’.

Barring a knockout by Obama on Tuesday night, I am–for the first time in months–expecting a slight Romney win. I’m not good enough at this kind of thing to give margins, but I don’t believe it will be a strong margin no matter who takes the cake.

I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes

I have to say, I’m thinking Romney will take this. I believe he’s dialed in now. Can Obama do better in the next debate? Well yeah, he set such a low bar in the last one it would actually be difficult to achieve that level of bad again. Any improvement is going to look good for him. He might even pull off a good performance. But I don’t think Romney can actually lose any of the last two debates. That is, Obama might turn around and do well himself, but Romney isn’t going to ‘lose.’ His team has found the sweet spot, and he’s wearing it a like an old favorite shirt now… For instance, he came across as strong and confident, yet not even the libs were talking about him giving a ‘rude’ performance. Add that to the hint of scandal, or at least fumbling, when it comes to the recent Sept 11th attacks, and I don’t see Obama winning.

Also, I was just reading the Romney and allies are prepared to launch an ad blitz in the last couple weeks. I imagine they’ll be hitting the Obama promises vs. Obama reality very, very hard. On the other hand, I think Obama’s response will be a bit more personal and nasty. Rich, cruel, grandma hating, potentially tax cheating, orphan-kicking, Romney-bot? Never! Thing is, I think that stuff has run it’s course now.

I stand by what I said. The earlier Romney wasn’t going to win. However his team has done a hell of job getting him relaxed, confident, and willing to open up to the public. You could sort of see it it starting with the last two primary debates. But that first Presidential debate…It really doesn’t get much better than that.

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.

For some time now…even before the GOP Primaries…I’ve not wavered that this will be a “Not Obama” win for Romney.

The Right’s hate for the President and their almost obsessive desire to get him out of office is much greater than The Left’s desire to keep the President in office.

I think that we will see historic turnouts.

Win…Romney/Ryan.

Mufasa

Margins.

This is trickier.

Sometimes I see “Bush/Gore”.

Sometimes I see the 2010 Mid-Terms.

So I’ll say that a more realistic win for Romney is between the two extremes.

Mufasa

Obama.

Romney gets the popular vote, Obama keeps the office.

[quote]doogie wrote:
Romney gets the popular vote, Obama keeps the office.[/quote]

The Electoral College is tricky…

Mufasa

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

Agreed. Romney, by a good healthy margin.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
For some time now…even before the GOP Primaries…I’ve not wavered that this will be a “Not Obama” win for Romney.

The Right’s hate for the President and their almost obsessive desire to get him out of office is much greater than The Left’s desire to keep the President in office.

I think that we will see historic turnouts.

Win…Romney/Ryan.

Mufasa[/quote]

Yes, Obama has done absolutely nothing to quell or reverse the anti-Obama vote and I think he’s even fanned the flames of the feeling in the ‘independent’ voters in recent weeks.

[quote]Neuromancer wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
For some time now…even before the GOP Primaries…I’ve not wavered that this will be a “Not Obama” win for Romney.

The Right’s hate for the President and their almost obsessive desire to get him out of office is much greater than The Left’s desire to keep the President in office.

I think that we will see historic turnouts.

Win…Romney/Ryan.

Mufasa[/quote]

Yes, Obama has done absolutely nothing to quell or reverse the anti-Obama vote and I think he’s even fanned the flames of the feeling in the ‘independent’ voters in recent weeks.[/quote]

Neuro:

I honestly don’t think that there was anything that could have been done to quell or reverse it.

Anti-Obama sentiment was strong even before he won the Democratic Nomination.

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
For some time now…even before the GOP Primaries…I’ve not wavered that this will be a “Not Obama” win for Romney.

The Right’s hate for the President and their almost obsessive desire to get him out of office is much greater than The Left’s desire to keep the President in office.

I think that we will see historic turnouts.

Win…Romney/Ryan.

Mufasa[/quote]

That’s a good word Mufasa, “obsessive”.

You nailed that just exactly what it is!

But that is what happens when you pit people against each other. one side loves the heck out of you and the other side becomes obsessive about voting you out of office.

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…”

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

[quote]doogie wrote:
Romney gets the popular vote, Obama keeps the office.[/quote]

The Electoral College is tricky…

Mufasa[/quote]

There was a good article in the WSJ today about how Romney is out spending Obama in the key swing states by two to one or better. While Obama spent plenty of money early damaging Romney’s reputation with lies, Romney has kept his powder dry and now he’s spending it all in the final few weeks.

But doogie is correct this could very well go obama’s way elecorially and Romney gets the popular vote. That’s why both he and Ryan are spending so much time and money in Ohio. If Romney wins Ohio he’ll win the White House for certain. But he can do it without Ohio, it’s just going to be very difficult.

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
The Right’s hate for the President and their almost obsessive desire to get him out of office is much greater than The Left’s desire to keep the President in office.
Mufasa[/quote]

Doesn’t look like he’s doing too well with independents lately, either. Poor guy. I will for one will be crowing and strutting around here for days if he loses. You don’t come up with novel ideas, like all of sudden being able to force religious organizations to provide insurance which covers contraception, and remain on people’s good side. Especially when your VP shamefully lies about it in a debate.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]kevinm1 wrote:
I’m thinking a Reaganesqe win by Romney ala Reagan Mondale the polls are biased and the indepndents know the emporer has no clothes[/quote]

I won’t say a wide margin. I’ll just say a surprising margin. Honestly, I think Romney might win this more comfortably than the tight race the polls suggest.
[/quote]

I just don’t think people like Obama as much as the media is trying to make it, he’s short of like my high school dating record women would say “well I like you but I don’t like you like you, or you’re a really nice guy but…” [/quote]

Obama’s likability remains at or around 50%, I’d say that’s pretty darn good for a guy with such a poor record over the past four years. And that’s what Romney has to watch going into these final two debates. Let the first debate serve as a measure of what he should do. Be direct, but respectful. Assertive, but not overly aggressive ala crazy Joe Biden.

But of course he knows that…[/quote]

Obama would have to be the Yoda of debating to turn the next two debates around to counter the mauling he got in the first one… I just don’t see it. Romney just has to go with more of the same that he has already showed first time out, and even if Obama ups his game significantly (which I expect), it will still be two stalemates.