T Nation

Will the Bailout Work?

The Dow was up 310 points. Details of the bailout xtarted appearing and the Dow finished down 158, a 468 point drop. What does this portend for Monday?

On top of this, we have the prospect of an Obama victory. He will have majorities in the House and Senate, which means some version of his grandiose spending plans will make it. Not good from an investor’s POV.

No, not a chance. Everything the gov touches turns to poop. Expect a lot more poop to appear.

No, the “bailout” will not work.

No, Obama will not win.

Mufasa

If we were “bailed out” months ago we might see a year or 2 of artificial relief… but unemployment is going up and production numbers and sales are way down so I think it was way too late to get any relief from it.

I train a real estate lawyer and he said there are NO mortgages going out to people… even his borrowers with great history.

I’m thinking about buying gold for the first time ever just because the handshake that is the dollar doesn’t mean a whole lot to people right now.

Should you stop paying on your mortgage? That’s a good question now, because you might get a better deal from the government.

Another problem I see is if the feds pay face value for these debts. Would anyone pay full price on an asset that is now worth maybe 35 cents on the dollar? If they pay full value, the cost is actually in the trillions. If they don’t pay full value, the banks go bankrupt.

We will have to come up with a lot more than 700 billion.

Does the well EVER run dry?

[quote]AynRandLuvr wrote:
Does the well EVER run dry?[/quote]

No, it becomes polluted and unpotable.

Grandiose spending plans? Have you been paying any attention at all to Bush’s spending the last 8 years???

[quote]Inner Hulk wrote:
Grandiose spending plans? Have you been paying any attention at all to Bush’s spending the last 8 years???[/quote]

Yes, and I even know Bill Mahers argument that you could have “free” healthcare, fix all bridges and schools and have money left for several projects to end the oil age for the money this war has and will cost you.

If you must have socialism, at least get something in return.

Seen that way, voting for Obama starts to make sense.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
No, Obama will not win.
[/quote]

Mufasa, are you expecting one hell of an October surprise or do you just not believe the current polls? Not calling you out, just curious why you are so confident of McCain’s victory given the current state of his campaign.

It seems he’s let many significant opportunities pass recently that could have helped him immensely.

this is like asking if you can fix monstrous constantly accumulating debt by spending more money

[quote]AynRandLuvr wrote:
Should you stop paying on your mortgage? That’s a good question now, because you might get a better deal from the government >>>[/quote]

With the IRS doing the collecting?

Anybody who thinks this will do anything except set us up for the next DC power grab is hopeless.

Tyler23:

Good question, and one that I’ve been asked a LOT over the last few weeks.

So we’re cool…

I have a LOT of thoughts; but I want to save them for the “after-election” discussions, of which I am sure there will be many. (I am ready to start a few myself!)

About the Polls;

I don’t trust where and how they collect the information, so do not put a lot of stock in them. There is also a lot of “counter-intelligence” going on with people who respond to Polls (e.g. Conservatives responding that they will Vote for Obama) in order to throw the Polls off.

Two little thoughts I will throw out:

  1. Palin is more of a game-changer than people either realize or will accept.

  2. People whom have underestimated Lt. Commander McCain in his Life have more then once had their asses handed to them.

(More after the election).

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

  1. Palin is more of a game-changer than people either realize or will accept.

  2. People whom have underestimated Lt. Commander McCain in his Life have more then once had their asses handed to them.
    [/quote]

I can’t disagree with either of these points. There are more than four weeks left in this election, a lifetime in politics, so I don’t discount that things could turn on a dime at any point (perhaps repeatedly).

With 30 days until Nov. 4, Karl Rove projects that Sen. Barack Obama (D-Ill.) would get at least 273 electoral votes - three more than are needed to win - if the presidential election were held today.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081005/pl_politico/14294

Karl Rove???

THE Karl Rove; the “Ringmaster of Modern American Politics” Karl Rove???

Saying FOR THE RECORD that Obama will win?

Then I am SURE of a Palin/McCain victory.

Mufasa

Oooops…

Sorry; there was a typical “Rovarian Disclosure” that I missed…

“… Rove warns that this race is “susceptible to rapid changes,” so no definite prediction is possible…”

Right.

Mufasa

Then they better have some SERIOUS, SERIOUS, SERIOUS dirt on Obama. This is a guy who’s associated with marxist/racist loons, yet his reputation is untarnished to any real degree. Nor, is he a moderate Democrat himself.

In fact, I believe he’s uber-liberal in the US Senate. And he’s running against the moderate, bi-partisan, “Maverick!” None of this has stopped the Obamamessiah from conquering McCain/Palin’s convention boost.

It would take dirt of epic proportions to suppress Obamania.

The way the month has started, it looks like October will be the month of “Character Assassination” with very little talk about issues.

It looks like “Sarah Barracuda” has been officially unleashed.

Mufasa

[quote]Mufasa wrote:

About the Polls;

There is also a lot of “counter-intelligence” going on with people who respond to Polls (e.g. Conservatives responding that they will Vote for Obama) in order to throw the Polls off.

Mufasa

[/quote]

Mufasa, good post - wondering, though, where you got this bit of intelligence from???