A lot of friends think I’m nuts to bet $500 or two weeks pay (STUDENT that works part time see below)on Rampage. The following are reasons I did.
- Odds on Sports Interaction has Jackson as a 3.25 to 1 underdog (Bet $100, get $325). As well you get a 10% deposit bonus for it. So if I were to win, I would win $1787.50. (Note: They changed the numbers to 2.75 to 1 underdog, now @ 2.37 to 1)
Most sport bookies have Jackson a 2 to 1 underdog, so I’m getting the best reward per dollar of risk that I’ve seen.
(Note: I can’t say I know much about Sports Interaction as this is my first time betting, but it is onshore for me, (Canadian Indian Reserve) and has been around for 10 years, and at one time was endorsed by Buffalo Bills QB Jim Kelly at one point).
- Liddell has been hyped to the max by the UFC. If you look at his last 7 fights, there isn’t anybody there that is anywhere near the caliber of Jackson. You could make the argument that Couture is. But if you look at who Courture has beaten in the 205 division the past 3 years, you get Victor Belfort and Mike Van Arsdale (Ortiz about 3 and half years ago).
On top of that, you could also state that in the last two fights between Liddell and Couture, they were “iffy” KO’s. In their first rematch, Couture was KO’d 30 seconds after an eye poke. In their second rematch, KO’d right after Couture slips and drops his hands to balance himself out.
Just because Liddell knocks out B grade fighters in a weak UFC 205 lbs division doesn’t make him a great fighter. It does make him very marketable though.
- Liddell may not be physically ready. One due not enough time to rehabilitate his torn MCL and two, he’s been on a roller coaster few months promoting 300 and doing media events.
On Dec 30, 2006, after Liddell destroyed Ortiz, it was revealed that he had a torn MCL. No apparent surgery was required but from my research it takes about 4 full weeks to heal. If surgery was done and nobody knows about it, it takes 3 months. He was medically suspended until June 30 2007. He also suffered tendon damage to a finger.
He was extremely sick late February to at least early March. This was seen when he showed up on Good Morning Texas http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xwYOFIWlg8" wasted on Nyquil and sleep medication wanting to fight Tommy Morrison for his next fight.
The fight between Jackson and Liddel was rumored on March 12 and official by March 19. So your looking at best two and a half months available prep time for this fight.
He is also quoted as saying that he was out for 9 weeks after the Ortiz/Liddell II fight that took place 12/30/06 (http://boxingtalk.com/pag/article11683.html)
- Liddell may not be mentally ready. During an interview with Dana White by Sherdog [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dw4FsSDEg4&mode=related&search=], Dana reiterates that Liddell is extremely sick at the time and wasn’t too please with who Liddell has been hanging out with.
It seemed like he was pushed to go on Good Morning Texas (if your wasted like Liddell was, you do need some pushing to go on live T.V. looking like that).
As well, in the past few months, he’s got on Entourage (not sure when it was taped, but at the very least he did some promos for it). Was in Sports Illustrated and ESPN.
He also contacted NBC Sports [http://www.nbcsports.com/ufc/1492887/detail.html] on the failed sparring bout between Dana and Ortiz on his take on the situation. Why would you get into somebody else’s business like that?
It looks like Liddell (or his promoter) is trying to promote and market Liddell as much as possible which would lead me to believe that he’s not completely focused on the task at hand.
- Liddell hasn’t shown improvement since first Jackson fight. Jackson dominated Liddell[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxHZjr8n0Aw] standing up and on the ground in their first fight.
He does seem to circle more and wait for the open shot now. But like in Jackson/Liddell I, Jackson punch defense blocked most of Liddell’s shots. I just don’t see much of a change here unless Liddell employs a new game plan which hasn’t been seen in the past.
He’s knocked out a bunch of guys lately, but he also knocked out a bunch of guys before (4 out of 8 fights from 2000-2002).
Those are my reasons why I will win $1787.50 on May 26. WAR RAMPAGE!!!
Note: I work as a Preloader at UPS. 20 hrs a week. Weekends off. If you know of a better job for a student, let me know. Will be getting some of my tuition paid off ($2000 per semester) and benefits down the road (even as a part timer).