T Nation

Why I Bet $500 on Rampage

A lot of friends think I’m nuts to bet $500 or two weeks pay (STUDENT that works part time see below)on Rampage. The following are reasons I did.

  1. Odds on Sports Interaction has Jackson as a 3.25 to 1 underdog (Bet $100, get $325). As well you get a 10% deposit bonus for it. So if I were to win, I would win $1787.50. (Note: They changed the numbers to 2.75 to 1 underdog, now @ 2.37 to 1)

Most sport bookies have Jackson a 2 to 1 underdog, so I’m getting the best reward per dollar of risk that I’ve seen.

(Note: I can’t say I know much about Sports Interaction as this is my first time betting, but it is onshore for me, (Canadian Indian Reserve) and has been around for 10 years, and at one time was endorsed by Buffalo Bills QB Jim Kelly at one point).

  1. Liddell has been hyped to the max by the UFC. If you look at his last 7 fights, there isn’t anybody there that is anywhere near the caliber of Jackson. You could make the argument that Couture is. But if you look at who Courture has beaten in the 205 division the past 3 years, you get Victor Belfort and Mike Van Arsdale (Ortiz about 3 and half years ago).

On top of that, you could also state that in the last two fights between Liddell and Couture, they were “iffy” KO’s. In their first rematch, Couture was KO’d 30 seconds after an eye poke. In their second rematch, KO’d right after Couture slips and drops his hands to balance himself out.

Just because Liddell knocks out B grade fighters in a weak UFC 205 lbs division doesn’t make him a great fighter. It does make him very marketable though.

  1. Liddell may not be physically ready. One due not enough time to rehabilitate his torn MCL and two, he’s been on a roller coaster few months promoting 300 and doing media events.

On Dec 30, 2006, after Liddell destroyed Ortiz, it was revealed that he had a torn MCL. No apparent surgery was required but from my research it takes about 4 full weeks to heal. If surgery was done and nobody knows about it, it takes 3 months. He was medically suspended until June 30 2007. He also suffered tendon damage to a finger.

He was extremely sick late February to at least early March. This was seen when he showed up on Good Morning Texas http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xwYOFIWlg8" wasted on Nyquil and sleep medication wanting to fight Tommy Morrison for his next fight.

The fight between Jackson and Liddel was rumored on March 12 and official by March 19. So your looking at best two and a half months available prep time for this fight.

He is also quoted as saying that he was out for 9 weeks after the Ortiz/Liddell II fight that took place 12/30/06 (http://boxingtalk.com/pag/article11683.html)

  1. Liddell may not be mentally ready. During an interview with Dana White by Sherdog [http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-dw4FsSDEg4&mode=related&search=], Dana reiterates that Liddell is extremely sick at the time and wasn’t too please with who Liddell has been hanging out with.

It seemed like he was pushed to go on Good Morning Texas (if your wasted like Liddell was, you do need some pushing to go on live T.V. looking like that).

As well, in the past few months, he’s got on Entourage (not sure when it was taped, but at the very least he did some promos for it). Was in Sports Illustrated and ESPN.

He also contacted NBC Sports [http://www.nbcsports.com/ufc/1492887/detail.html] on the failed sparring bout between Dana and Ortiz on his take on the situation. Why would you get into somebody else’s business like that?

It looks like Liddell (or his promoter) is trying to promote and market Liddell as much as possible which would lead me to believe that he’s not completely focused on the task at hand.

  1. Liddell hasn’t shown improvement since first Jackson fight. Jackson dominated Liddell[http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SxHZjr8n0Aw] standing up and on the ground in their first fight.

He does seem to circle more and wait for the open shot now. But like in Jackson/Liddell I, Jackson punch defense blocked most of Liddell’s shots. I just don’t see much of a change here unless Liddell employs a new game plan which hasn’t been seen in the past.

He’s knocked out a bunch of guys lately, but he also knocked out a bunch of guys before (4 out of 8 fights from 2000-2002).

Those are my reasons why I will win $1787.50 on May 26. WAR RAMPAGE!!!

Note: I work as a Preloader at UPS. 20 hrs a week. Weekends off. If you know of a better job for a student, let me know. Will be getting some of my tuition paid off ($2000 per semester) and benefits down the road (even as a part timer).

haha I love when people make threads like these, they ALWAYS lose.

good luck on the bet. as far as jobs go, look into the air force reserve, you can get 500 buck per month from the reserve gi bill + 200 drill pay, and they have Tuition Assistance.

Obviously you didn’t see Slimjim’s phenomenal predictions of all the upsets at PRIDE 33 :). I know who’s bets I’m copying next time.

you can be super scientific about analyzing fights, but in reality all it takes is a solid hit to the jaw to really fuck everything up. or one mistake capitalized in to a choke hold.

maybe rampage will block consistently for most of the fight, but one missed block and a hard hit to the jaw from lidell would soften him up enough for lidell to move in and fuck him up pretty bad like he always does.

or lidell might fight defensively and kick the crap out of rampages legs until he is pretty much useless and then beat him up.

basically, the way lidell fights, there are too many wild cards that could happen to make a safe bet against him.

as far as his head not being in it, isn’t he avenging his last loss? that is a heck of a motivation. he will have his head in the game in a way most people never do.

it sounds to me like a bookie suckered you on the promise of doubling your money with whimsical bullshit.

The way favorites and champions have been losing lately it may not be a bad bet.

You’ve been watching too much Rocky 3. I’ll worry about Chuck losing when he decides to have an exhibition bout with John Cena.

same post as on sherdog

My theory is you are attempting a pump and dump campaign where you post this on every message board swaying people to dump big money on Rampage. Then when odds drop to 1:1 you drop 500 on Liddell and double your profit.

Then again, you wouldn’t be foolish enough to bet Liddell…

War Rampage!!!

[quote]texasguy wrote:
you can be super scientific about analyzing fights, but in reality all it takes is a solid hit to the jaw to really fuck everything up. or one mistake capitalized in to a choke hold.

maybe rampage will block consistently for most of the fight, but one missed block and a hard hit to the jaw from lidell would soften him up enough for lidell to move in and fuck him up pretty bad like he always does.

or lidell might fight defensively and kick the crap out of rampages legs until he is pretty much useless and then beat him up.

basically, the way lidell fights, there are too many wild cards that could happen to make a safe bet against him.

as far as his head not being in it, isn’t he avenging his last loss? that is a heck of a motivation. he will have his head in the game in a way most people never do.

it sounds to me like a bookie suckered you on the promise of doubling your money with whimsical bullshit. [/quote]

Rampage has one of the best chins in MMA (see the 234923 knees he took to the head before finally going down in Wandy 2 or the soccer kick/knees in the Shogun fight).

Chuck wont kick for fear of it opening him up for the takedown.

Also, Page’s cardio is light years ahead of Chuck’s and this will likely be the difference maker in the fight.

I see Rampage winning as he is a horrible matchup for Chuck.

[quote]RickyBobby wrote:
texasguy wrote:
you can be super scientific about analyzing fights, but in reality all it takes is a solid hit to the jaw to really fuck everything up. or one mistake capitalized in to a choke hold.

maybe rampage will block consistently for most of the fight, but one missed block and a hard hit to the jaw from lidell would soften him up enough for lidell to move in and fuck him up pretty bad like he always does.

or lidell might fight defensively and kick the crap out of rampages legs until he is pretty much useless and then beat him up.

basically, the way lidell fights, there are too many wild cards that could happen to make a safe bet against him.

as far as his head not being in it, isn’t he avenging his last loss? that is a heck of a motivation. he will have his head in the game in a way most people never do.

it sounds to me like a bookie suckered you on the promise of doubling your money with whimsical bullshit.

Rampage has one of the best chins in MMA (see the 234923 knees he took to the head before finally going down in Wandy 2 or the soccer kick/knees in the Shogun fight).

Chuck wont kick for fear of it opening him up for the takedown.

Also, Page’s cardio is light years ahead of Chuck’s and this will likely be the difference maker in the fight.

I see Rampage winning as he is a horrible matchup for Chuck.

[/quote]

rampage may have a tough chin, but chuck knocks out practically anybody.

on the otherside of that coin, chuck is a hard guy to take down.

and you don’t really know whose cardio is better at all. i wouldn’t doubt chuck has been training pretty hard. it isn’t exactly his first rodeo.

Quit skirting the real issue here, and that is Kimbo vs Ray Mercer.

[quote]texasguy wrote:
RickyBobby wrote:
texasguy wrote:
you can be super scientific about analyzing fights, but in reality all it takes is a solid hit to the jaw to really fuck everything up. or one mistake capitalized in to a choke hold.

maybe rampage will block consistently for most of the fight, but one missed block and a hard hit to the jaw from lidell would soften him up enough for lidell to move in and fuck him up pretty bad like he always does.

or lidell might fight defensively and kick the crap out of rampages legs until he is pretty much useless and then beat him up.

basically, the way lidell fights, there are too many wild cards that could happen to make a safe bet against him.

as far as his head not being in it, isn’t he avenging his last loss? that is a heck of a motivation. he will have his head in the game in a way most people never do.

it sounds to me like a bookie suckered you on the promise of doubling your money with whimsical bullshit.

Rampage has one of the best chins in MMA (see the 234923 knees he took to the head before finally going down in Wandy 2 or the soccer kick/knees in the Shogun fight).

Chuck wont kick for fear of it opening him up for the takedown.

Also, Page’s cardio is light years ahead of Chuck’s and this will likely be the difference maker in the fight.

I see Rampage winning as he is a horrible matchup for Chuck.

rampage may have a tough chin, but chuck knocks out practically anybody.

on the otherside of that coin, chuck is a hard guy to take down.

and you don’t really know whose cardio is better at all. i wouldn’t doubt chuck has been training pretty hard. it isn’t exactly his first rodeo. [/quote]

Chuck admitted in a recent interview that he hit Rampage really hard in their first fight. Guess what, he didn’t knock him out.

[quote]texasguy wrote:

rampage may have a tough chin, but chuck knocks out practically anybody.

on the otherside of that coin, chuck is a hard guy to take down.

and you don’t really know whose cardio is better at all. i wouldn’t doubt chuck has been training pretty hard. it isn’t exactly his first rodeo. [/quote]

Good points. I think their strengths match up pretty well, which should lead to a very entertaining fight. Also, don’t forget that Chuck has the revenge factor on his side. I can’t see him coming into this fight unprepared at all.

[quote]DaMadMonk wrote:

(Note: I can’t say I know much about Sports Interaction … at one time was endorsed by Buffalo Bills QB Jim Kelly at one point).

[/quote]

Best part of this thread. Hell, if Jim Kelly says it’s ok, it has to be good.

DB

I don’t like to put my foot in my mouth, but I’m gonna go out on a limb here.

Go watch the Wandi Silva vs Rampage fight(Think it was Critical Countdown '05?). Silva won after the ref stopped the fight because Rampage was EATING knee after knee to the face. He took numerous clean blows to the head and just kept going. Rampage has a head like granite.

It’s going to take a good half dozen connecting Liddell monkey punches(borrowed that from Donut)to get Rampage ko’d. I just don’t see that happening given how quick Rampage it. Now, granted I just jinxed it so Rampage will probably get fold up like a lawn chair but if it were a science, I don’t think Chuck would have a chance.

[quote]dollarbill44 wrote:
DaMadMonk wrote:

(Note: I can’t say I know much about Sports Interaction … at one time was endorsed by Buffalo Bills QB Jim Kelly at one point).

Best part of this thread. Hell, if Jim Kelly says it’s ok, it has to be good.

DB[/quote]

word

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
The way favorites and champions have been losing lately it may not be a bad bet.[/quote]

there it is. I dont even speculate with myself anymore. Just sit back and watch the show. The past few upsets and shit are the best thing that could happen to the sport.

You cant question the integrity of the fights when you have heavily hyped superstars getting decapitated with their own signature move by unmarketable gorillas. Heres hoping that Chuck actually gets tested, maybe even see him on his back…

[quote]dollarbill44 wrote:
DaMadMonk wrote:

(Note: I can’t say I know much about Sports Interaction … at one time was endorsed by Buffalo Bills QB Jim Kelly at one point).

Best part of this thread. Hell, if Jim Kelly says it’s ok, it has to be good.

DB[/quote]

Taking a Buffalo Bill or Viking req on a championship of any sort seems dicey

Good luck brother.
The last time Chuck fought Bobaloo, I really thought Bobaloo had a chance.
I was wrong, Chuck…is… the… man.
Cheers,
Mepacho

[quote]analog_kid wrote:
I don’t like to put my foot in my mouth, but I’m gonna go out on a limb here.

Go watch the Wandi Silva vs Rampage fight(Think it was Critical Countdown '05?). Silva won after the ref stopped the fight because Rampage was EATING knee after knee to the face. He took numerous clean blows to the head and just kept going. Rampage has a head like granite.

It’s going to take a good half dozen connecting Liddell monkey punches(borrowed that from Donut)to get Rampage ko’d. I just don’t see that happening given how quick Rampage it. Now, granted I just jinxed it so Rampage will probably get fold up like a lawn chair but if it were a science, I don’t think Chuck would have a chance. [/quote]

but it isn’t a science. and the reality is that anything can happen. a simple mistake on either side can wind up in a submission hold, a dropped gaurd or misread punch could result in a knock out, even with a granite head, and points are always a factor too.