T Nation

Why Bush Won

Right around 1:00am (as I predicted on another thread) Ohio slipped into the Bush column and the election was over. Let’s look at the reasons President Bush was in fact reelected.

  1. The youth vote simply did not materialize for the democrats, as they predicted. 18-23 year olds, 17%. 18 to 29 group, 33%. Both figures exactly what they were four years ago! I admit I was surprised as I thought this group would increase a bit more, but fall far short of what the Kerry camp (and certain people on this forum) thought. Kids just don’t vote!

  2. The Evangelical Christian vote turned out in record numbers for the President. I think when all the facts are sorted out this one group will be shown as most responsible for the Presidents victory.

  3. A larger percentage of African Americans than expected, not happy with Kerry’s stance on certain social issues voted for President Bush or stayed at home. Kerry still won the black vote by large margins, but not as large as expected, or needed.

  4. Karl Rove put together the finest get out the vote effort that has ever occurred within the republican party. 1.2 million volunteers! Yikes!

  5. Hollywood liberals, rock stars and some whackos like Michael Moore may have had a negative effect on the Kerry candidacy with middle America. They sure didn’t help get the youth vote out as predicted. All Moore did was drive the hate factor up within that group who already were not very fond of President Bush.

  6. I honestly feel that Arnold helped President Bush in Ohio, as did the 44 stops that President Bush made to Ohio since becoming President four years ago. Rove new that Ohio was key and they treated it as such.

  7. I picked President Bush to win and I have not yet been wrong on a Presidential prediction. Okay…that was not a reason that Bush won, but it looked like a good place to brag just a little…sorry :).

Perhaps you disagree with some of my reasons for President Bush’s victory (please don’t count #7). Give some reasons that you feel President Bush won reelection.

Oh…one more reason: President Bush narrowed the gender gap. All the numbers are not in, but when it is all said and done I think we will find that women split about even between the two candidates.

oO US voting isn’t anonymous?

Zeb:

I’m sort of in a sleep-deprived stupor!

Is it true that the President reached a few historical landmarks:

  1. Greatest number of votes in history?

  2. First of a “father-son” duo to win re-election? (Nice trivia I think!)

3)We debated AT LENGTH on this forum the religious conservative/Evangelical vote…many of us felt that when all is said and done, THEY GET OUT AND VOTE!

There were one or two more…but I forget!

Mufasa

from CNN:

Bush(Incumbent) 2,794,346 51%
Kerry 2,658,125 49%
Badnarik 14,125 0%
Peroutka 11,606 0%

And there are still all the provisional (approx 175000) and absentee ballots to count.

Although I doubt Kerry will get it, its a bit too soon to start jumping for joy…

[quote]AKA wrote:
oO US voting isn’t anonymous?
[/quote]

How we vote is kept secret. I don?t think there was anything on my ballot that connected it to me.

But the voter rolls are public record. Also the exit polls (which were off) does give an idea of how people were voting, and who. Most people will tell others how they voted at the polls, but they don?t have to.

What about the Bin Laden tape that was just released? There was America?s number one enemy and the world?s most despised terrorist campaigning against Bush. I think that tape helped Bush.

I think you were completely right about the evangelical Christian vote. Not a wise group to ignore in my opinion. They are numerous, organized, motivated and not easily intimidated.

Still, you have to acknowledge the fact that this race was so unbelievably close. It is encouraging that Bush won the popular vote and the most number of states in addition to the most college votes.

So what do you make of all this talk of provisional ballots? Statistically, what is the chance that Bush did not actually win? I don?t want to go around acting all victorious only to look sheepish later on. You Americans and your elections are no fun for impatient people like me.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Zeb:

I’m sort of in a sleep-deprived stupor!

Is it true that the President reached a few historical landmarks:

  1. Greatest number of votes in history?

  2. First of a “father-son” duo to win re-election? (Nice trivia I think!)

3)We debated AT LENGTH on this forum the religious conservative/Evangelical vote…many of us felt that when all is said and done, THEY GET OUT AND VOTE!
[/quote]

  • First majority victory since 1988.

  • First time in a long, long time an incumbant won re-election and had a gain in congress.

  • most votes ever received by a president.

  • First time a senate leader has lost re-election in 52 years (Daschle).

Carl Rove said that, in 2000, over 4 million christian conservatives stayed home - it looks like they all voted this time.

[quote]De Molay wrote:
from CNN:

Bush(Incumbent) 2,794,346 51%
Kerry 2,658,125 49%
Badnarik 14,125 0%
Peroutka 11,606 0%

And there are still all the provisional (approx 175000) and absentee ballots to count.

Although I doubt Kerry will get it, its a bit too soon to start jumping for joy…
[/quote]

no its not…this is over since 8 or 9 eastern time…everyone is too leary of last year but its pretty obvious that this is a solid W for Dubya

Your votes are anonymous? Another reason you guys are lucky. Here in Canada we use mostly paper ballots. Each ballot has a number and each number corresponds to a name on a list. A couple of years ago a veteran wrote a letter to his Member of Parliament asking for help dealing with a government agency. The MP?s written response was ?why should I help you when you supported my opponent during the last election.? The claim was that this info was based this on a yard sign the veteran had. As I recall the MP (a Liberal) apologized but was not disciplined. Pretty sick huh?

[quote]De Molay wrote:
from CNN:

Bush(Incumbent) 2,794,346 51%
Kerry 2,658,125 49%
Badnarik 14,125 0%
Peroutka 11,606 0%

And there are still all the provisional (approx 175000) and absentee ballots to count.

Although I doubt Kerry will get it, its a bit too soon to start jumping for joy…
[/quote]

from Ohio:

Bush has a 136,483 lead with 100% precincts reporting and there were only 135,149 provisional ballots issued. Even if every single provisional ballot went to Kerry, he still could not win.

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/results/SingleRaceSummary.aspx?race=PP

http://election.sos.state.oh.us/ProvBallots.htm

[quote]JPBear wrote:

So what do you make of all this talk of provisional ballots? Statistically, what is the chance that Bush did not actually win? I don?t want to go around acting all victorious only to look sheepish later on. You Americans and your elections are no fun for impatient people like me.
[/quote]

This is mentioned on other threads also, but here is the math.

If you include absentee ballots, I believe there are as many as 250,000 ( the highest estimate I have heard, most are 170,000 or less,) ballots still to be counted. Most are provisional, which are very likely to be thrown out.

Assuming none are thrown out, and the 250,000 number is right, Bush is 136,221 ahead. For Kerry to win by one, he would have to win that 136,221 plus half of the remaining votes, (56,890) which totals 193111. Or 77.244% of all of those ballots, and that is the best case scenario.

Bring that down to 200,000 and he would now have to win 84% of all those ballots. And this is still a lot more then people think there are.

Does anybody think this is possible? Especially when many absentee ballots are military?

Zeb:

I think another factor – particularly in OH – was the presence on the ballot of an initiative to ban gay marriage. They were on the ballot in 11 states, and won in all of them – including OR, a blue state – by double-digits.

Sadly, it is as I predicted as well. Actually it was a little closer than I predicted. I thought Bush would be closer to the 60% mark on the popular vote.

You all know my views on Bush, so I won’t re-hash them here. Despite my resignation that Bush would win, it doesn’t make me any less depressed about what is happening in America right now. Especially considering the sweep of Republicans in Congress and Senate races. My main concern is the balance of powers… Conservatives will now be able to place the one or two seats on the Supreme Court, and with a republican congress and president there won’t be any resistance to advancing some of their more draconian agenda.

I am also concerned about the effect on our economy in the world market. A study I heard about on NPR recently indicates that many countries that have previously eagerly bought American goods are stopping, and we just haven’t felt the impact on this country yet. Many of you loudly exclaim “fuck the rest of the world”, claiming that you don’t care about our reputation with our former allies and everyone else. That attitude will come back to bite us in the ass in the next four years.

The fact that evangelical Christians turned out in such high numbers is a scary thing to me. So many in America want to govern this country according to Biblical Law. I don’t think people realize what they are bringing on to themselves by advancing this agenda. There is a reason that the constitution had such a large wedge between the powers of the church and the state. Our strength in the last century has been our diversity. If we actually become a “Christian nation” as so many fundamentalists hope for, we will lose that and become stagnant. New technology will suffer, and so will individuals’ rights as private citizens. I hope I am just overreacting and that this doesn’t come about. Maybe I am just being paranoid, but with no more resistance from congress we will soon find out if I am right or wrong. To be totally ironic, I pray that I’m wrong!

[quote]De Molay wrote:
from CNN:

Bush(Incumbent) 2,794,346 51%
Kerry 2,658,125 49%
Badnarik 14,125 0%
Peroutka 11,606 0%

And there are still all the provisional (approx 175000) and absentee ballots to count.

Although I doubt Kerry will get it, its a bit too soon to start jumping for joy…
[/quote]

Basically, the probability of Kerry winning OH is nil.

Courtesty of Jim Geraghty:

The way to figure it out is:

(A) Take the number of valid provisional ballots (i.e., not the total number but the total number reduced by the number of those determined to be invalid) and add it to the number of valid absentee ballots [including a lot of military ballots, a majority of which will go to Bush].

(B) Subtract 136,000 from (A).

© Divide (B) by 2.

(D) Subtract © from (A). This is the number of votes Kerry needs to win.

(E) Divide (D) by (A) and multiply by 100. This is the percentage of votes Kerry needs to win.

So if these are the numbers of valid provisional and absentee ballots, the numbers in parentheses following them are the percentages of the vote Kerry needs to win Ohio:

150,000 (95.3%)
175,000 (88.9%)
200,000 (83.0%)
225,000 (79.8%)
250,000 (77.2%)

D’oh! Didn’t see Mage’s calculation, which already explains it very well.

Ah well, as you can see, Kerry ain’t takin’ Ohio…

[quote]Roy Batty wrote:
Sadly, it is as I predicted as well. Actually it was a little closer than I predicted. I thought Bush would be closer to the 60% mark on the popular vote.

You all know my views on Bush, so I won’t re-hash them here. Despite my resignation that Bush would win, it doesn’t make me any less depressed about what is happening in America right now. Especially considering the sweep of Republicans in Congress and Senate races. My main concern is the balance of powers… Conservatives will now be able to place the one or two seats on the Supreme Court, and with a republican congress and president there won’t be any resistance to advancing some of their more draconian agenda.

I am also concerned about the effect on our economy in the world market. A study I heard about on NPR recently indicates that many countries that have previously eagerly bought American goods are stopping, and we just haven’t felt the impact on this country yet. Many of you loudly exclaim “fuck the rest of the world”, claiming that you don’t care about our reputation with our former allies and everyone else. That attitude will come back to bite us in the ass in the next four years.

The fact that evangelical Christians turned out in such high numbers is a scary thing to me. So many in America want to govern this country according to Biblical Law. I don’t think people realize what they are bringing on to themselves by advancing this agenda. There is a reason that the constitution had such a large wedge between the powers of the church and the state. Our strength in the last century has been our diversity. If we actually become a “Christian nation” as so many fundamentalists hope for, we will lose that and become stagnant. New technology will suffer, and so will individuals’ rights as private citizens. I hope I am just overreacting and that this doesn’t come about. Maybe I am just being paranoid, but with no more resistance from congress we will soon find out if I am right or wrong. To be totally ironic, I pray that I’m wrong![/quote]

I pretty much agree with everything you just wrote. We now have a government that, while saying it is against “big government”, will grant more power to the government than we have probably ever seen in history. Using the church as its front, I hate to say it, but it seems we are entering more into a “holy war” than a “war on terror”. The 21st Century’s version of the crusades?

Kerry has officially conceded…

Mufasa

The reason Bush won is that no president in our history has been voted out of office while we are at war.

The unfortunate thing is that this will have other major consequences that I think negatively affect our security and social liberties.

[quote]Professor X wrote:
Roy Batty wrote:
Sadly, it is as I predicted as well. Actually it was a little closer than I predicted. I thought Bush would be closer to the 60% mark on the popular vote.

You all know my views on Bush, so I won’t re-hash them here. Despite my resignation that Bush would win, it doesn’t make me any less depressed about what is happening in America right now. Especially considering the sweep of Republicans in Congress and Senate races. My main concern is the balance of powers… Conservatives will now be able to place the one or two seats on the Supreme Court, and with a republican congress and president there won’t be any resistance to advancing some of their more draconian agenda.

I am also concerned about the effect on our economy in the world market. A study I heard about on NPR recently indicates that many countries that have previously eagerly bought American goods are stopping, and we just haven’t felt the impact on this country yet. Many of you loudly exclaim “fuck the rest of the world”, claiming that you don’t care about our reputation with our former allies and everyone else. That attitude will come back to bite us in the ass in the next four years.

The fact that evangelical Christians turned out in such high numbers is a scary thing to me. So many in America want to govern this country according to Biblical Law. I don’t think people realize what they are bringing on to themselves by advancing this agenda. There is a reason that the constitution had such a large wedge between the powers of the church and the state. Our strength in the last century has been our diversity. If we actually become a “Christian nation” as so many fundamentalists hope for, we will lose that and become stagnant. New technology will suffer, and so will individuals’ rights as private citizens. I hope I am just overreacting and that this doesn’t come about. Maybe I am just being paranoid, but with no more resistance from congress we will soon find out if I am right or wrong. To be totally ironic, I pray that I’m wrong!

I pretty much agree with everything you just wrote. We now have a government that, while saying it is against “big government”, will grant more power to the government than we have probably ever seen in history. Using the church as its front, I hate to say it, but it seems we are entering more into a “holy war” than a “war on terror”. The 21st Century’s version of the crusades?[/quote]

I agree as well. It is a sad day in the U.S. I’m disappointed.

Maybe this holy war will become what those who follow the bible refer to as “Revelations.” Bush could very well be the anti-Christ.