T Nation

Who Will REALLY Swing The Vote?

Okay, Nation…

I THINK that many of us agree that this Presidential election,(barring some major catastrophe or “faux paux” on someones part), is a dead heat that swings almost on a daily basis.

So I’m asking for you guys opinion…who will REALLY take the President or Kerry “over the top”?

1)The religious right? (In favor of Bush)

2)Black Americans (Not as clear as many of you may think…many Black Voters are Religious Conservatives).

3)The “Nader” Voter (that if they VOTE for Nader, favors Bush).

4)The Voters within one or two precints within one or two states. (e.g. certain precincts in Florida…don’t forget the LAST election!)

5)"NASCAR DADS? (Is this really a valid voting “block”? If it is, it seems to favor Bush due to the consevative lean).

  1. Women???

  2. Gay Voters? (Favoring Kerry)

  3. Other?

This is a tough one, guys. I say that the Religious Right is becoming galvanized because of the beating Bush has been taking from the Dems…but I have to say that I don’t think that they will NECCESSARILY swing the vote in Bush’s favor…

What do you guys think?

Mufasa

I posted this in another thread, but it applies to this subject.

Missouri is putting a gay marraige amendment on the ballot in November. If this happens, then you will see record numbers of conservatives coming out to vote against gay marrainge. While their behind the magic curtain, they might pull a lever for George Bush.

I’ve also heard that there is a godd chance that Ohio will do the same thing.

This might make the much sought after swing voter less of an issue than it is shaping up to be.

rainjack:

That is a VERY interesting development…thanks for the insight…

Conservatives (ESPECIALLY the Religious Right), are easily mobilized (via close-nit networks, e-mail, mailings, etc,) AND once mobilized don’t just put up signs and march…THEY VOTE!

On the surface, this sounds like VERY good news for Bush in that this represents 2 states within that elusive block known as “Key Battleground States” or states that could go either way.

Very interesting!

Mufasa

Is there anyone who thinks that the race is not really that close…in other words, that it WILL NOT be won by a block of “swing” voters?

Just curious…

Mufasa

Howard Stern listeners.

He is encouraging all of his listeners to vote Bush out of office.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Is there anyone who thinks that the race is not really that close…in other words, that it WILL NOT be won by a block of “swing” voters?

Just curious…

Mufasa[/quote]

I do. I think there are millions of disaffected voters out there who didn’t want Gore last time, so they went with the “compassionate conservative” who was “a uniter not a divider”. They’ve been let down and betrayed by one of the most divisive, strictly conservative presidents ever. The invasion of Iraq was a bad idea from the beginning, and once it became obvious that it was undertaken on false pretenses it was game over for the Bush crew.

They have tried for two years to link Iraq and the war on terror, but by now it has become very obvious to all but the most loyal sycophants that bush dropped the ball on “the war on terror” in order to settle a personal score in Iraq, and instead has spawned even more terrorists.

The military is almost unanimous in favor of Bush. It’s a huge block.

The religous right is also heavy in favor of Bush. Unions almost always go for Kerry but I do not think the rank and file votes with the union in all cases.

I’m from NYC and it’s a heavily democratic state but my guess is the city will go for Bush. He earned his bones after 9/11 and New Yorkers are loyal.

hedo:

The Vet vote is interesting…

Kerry just doesn’t seem to be winning them over (most likely due to the fact that AS A GROUP they tend to be conservative?)

Anyway…why isn’t his Vietnam Service gaining him more support? Was he too “brutal” in his Anti-War rhetoric?

Again…the Vet vote is also turning out to be interesting…

Mufasa

There have been many good points raised on this thread. However, I think that one major point is being overlooked!

There is a seething hatred for President Bush by many who oppose him. However, I find it hard to believe that Kerry’s groups will be as eager to go out and vote for him as much as Bush’s followers will be in voting for the President.

There have been many articles regarding how little the black vote is motivated. When you hate the other guy and are not all that excited about your guy you tend not to rush out to the polls.

I also think the media is making this out to be closer than it really is. Let’s see, now why would they do that? Oh yea they hate Bush!

If you break the country down into electoral votes Bush has a decent lead. Not huge, but decent. I don’t see anything changing that. I do see some things that will expand his lead. Not the least of which is total voter turnout in!

I think women voting Republican because of security issues will push the President over the top.

Actually, I think that is the issue that will push Bush over the top irrespective of the particular group.

BB,

Excellent point! The huge female turnout for Clinton and even Gore will not be there for Kerry.

Don’t remember where I read it, but there was an article pointing out that Gore got the jewish vote because of Lieberman. This time out, Kerry will probably not since Bush has treated Israel better then Kerry likely will (one can discuss what is the correct way, but that is another discussion).