T Nation

Who is Going to Win?

Looking at the news and paper headlines over the last few days the overwhelming message is that Obama is on his way to the biggeset land slide election victory in history… Every poll I have seen gives Obama between a 10 and 5 point lead. We all know that polls can be wrong and that most news outlets are skewed however I cannot find anyone calling it even remotely close everything seems to be pointing the same way.

I guess my question is what is really going on out there? Are the polls/media calling this remotely correctly? What is the sentiment on the street and of course this forum?

First ask yourself who are the sources of the headlines of which you speak, and whom those source are supporting to win this election.

Once you’ve answered that, you should be well on your way to answering your other questions.

[quote]JamFly wrote:
Looking at the news and paper headlines over the last few days the overwhelming message is that Obama is on his way to the biggeset land slide election victory in history… Every poll I have seen gives Obama between a 10 and 5 point lead. We all know that polls can be wrong and that most news outlets are skewed however I cannot find anyone calling it even remotely close everything seems to be pointing the same way.

I guess my question is what is really going on out there? Are the polls/media calling this remotely correctly? What is the sentiment on the street and of course this forum?[/quote]

Biggest landslide my ass. 5-10 points is nothing. Look at elections in the past 50 years…LBJ-Goldwater(1964), Nixon-McGovern(1972), Reagan-Mondale(1984), even Bush-Dukakis(1988).

This is the 1984 electoral map.

Investors Business Daily has the the race dead even.

They have called the races more accurately than any other polling service over the last several years.

The closer gasoline gets to $2/gallon by election day, the better McCain will do.

Regardless, I don’t think this is media Bias. If they were that Manipulative, they would have done it last time for kerry and the time before that for gore. I believe every MSM station has a media Bias, but that doesn’t change the fact that Obama is going to Kill McCain, unless the election is stolen. Hell there are a LOT of republicans who have endorsed Obama, when shit like that happens, it’s not good for the other guy.

McCain lost a chunk of his conservative base when he snubbed Ron Paul at the Convention, There are very few of the couple million Ron Paul Supporters who will vote for McCain. They aren’t voting for Obama Either, but could have helped McCain Especially since they were 5X as energized as the rest of his base. The Republican Party is going to have to sleep in this bed they have made. I hope they toss and turn and stay up all night thinking about how to change it for the better, and maybe actually listen to some of the people they recently alienated.

I’d also like to point out Ron Paul has been dead on on his economic predictions for some time now and saw this big mess coming down the road a long time ago. I don’t care if McCain thought he was a kook on foreign policy, McCain is retarded for not embracing Pauls economic ideas.

V

I don’t know who will win, but I’ve got a good guess who will lose, and that’s the American people.

[quote]Vegita wrote:
Regardless, I don’t think this is media Bias. If they were that Manipulative, they would have done it last time for kerry and the time before that for gore. I believe every MSM station has a media Bias, but that doesn’t change the fact that Obama is going to Kill McCain, unless the election is stolen. Hell there are a LOT of republicans who have endorsed Obama, when shit like that happens, it’s not good for the other guy. [/quote]

You can only guess at what will happen. The closer gasoline gets to $2/gallon - the better McCain will do. This is an election about the economy. Unless it just flat sucks, people will not opt for big change regardless of who is endorsing what.

No he didn’t. Snubbing Ron Paul pissed off a bunch of already pissed college kids. Had Paul changed his stance on the War and the gold standard, he would likely by the presidential nominee right now. But his support was rabid college kids, and the results in the primaries proved it.

[quote]I’d also like to point out Ron Paul has been dead on on his economic predictions for some time now and saw this big mess coming down the road a long time ago. I don’t care if McCain thought he was a kook on foreign policy, McCain is retarded for not embracing Pauls economic ideas.

V[/quote]

Like I said - if he would come off his bullshit about the gold standard, things would be much different.

He is to 2008 what Buchanan has been in the past. And really - neither of them are that big of a deal. They say just enough good stuff to make them interesting. Then you realize that some of their ideas will never work, and they become a little wacky.

I can’t see how Obama can lose…He has more money, he has the media on his side, he is running on opposite party platform of an unpopular sitting president, he advertises constantly, people actually believe him, etc. If he does lose, then perhaps, maybe the dumocrats may have to rethink their party platform, finally.

I think it will be the dem’s fault really. I think they nominated one of the few people that could lose it for them.

[quote]pat wrote:
I can’t see how Obama can lose…He has more money, he has the media on his side, he is running on opposite party platform of an unpopular sitting president, he advertises constantly, people actually believe him, etc. If he does lose, then perhaps, maybe the dumocrats may have to rethink their party platform, finally.[/quote]

Agreed. At this stage it would be shocking if he lost. Not because he has run a great campaign; he hasn’t. But McCain gambled and lost with his VP pick, has looked old and tired in the debates, and, most importantly, has been crushed by the financial crisis and his lack of economic knowledge. Only question left is how bad it’s going to be.

This post was flagged by the community and is temporarily hidden.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Vegita wrote:
Regardless, I don’t think this is media Bias. If they were that Manipulative, they would have done it last time for kerry and the time before that for gore. I believe every MSM station has a media Bias, but that doesn’t change the fact that Obama is going to Kill McCain, unless the election is stolen. Hell there are a LOT of republicans who have endorsed Obama, when shit like that happens, it’s not good for the other guy.

You can only guess at what will happen. The closer gasoline gets to $2/gallon - the better McCain will do. This is an election about the economy. Unless it just flat sucks, people will not opt for big change regardless of who is endorsing what.

McCain lost a chunk of his conservative base when he snubbed Ron Paul at the Convention, There are very few of the couple million Ron Paul Supporters who will vote for McCain. They aren’t voting for Obama Either, but could have helped McCain Especially since they were 5X as energized as the rest of his base. The Republican Party is going to have to sleep in this bed they have made. I hope they toss and turn and stay up all night thinking about how to change it for the better, and maybe actually listen to some of the people they recently alienated.

No he didn’t. Snubbing Ron Paul pissed off a bunch of already pissed college kids. Had Paul changed his stance on the War and the gold standard, he would likely by the presidential nominee right now. But his support was rabid college kids, and the results in the primaries proved it.

I’d also like to point out Ron Paul has been dead on on his economic predictions for some time now and saw this big mess coming down the road a long time ago. I don’t care if McCain thought he was a kook on foreign policy, McCain is retarded for not embracing Pauls economic ideas.

V

Like I said - if he would come off his bullshit about the gold standard, things would be much different.

He is to 2008 what Buchanan has been in the past. And really - neither of them are that big of a deal. They say just enough good stuff to make them interesting. Then you realize that some of their ideas will never work, and they become a little wacky.

[/quote]

You can keep clinging to hope all you want, but the fact of the matter is, McCain is gonna get his ass handed to him.

.

[quote]rainjack wrote:
Vegita wrote:
Regardless, I don’t think this is media Bias. If they were that Manipulative, they would have done it last time for kerry and the time before that for gore. I believe every MSM station has a media Bias, but that doesn’t change the fact that Obama is going to Kill McCain, unless the election is stolen. Hell there are a LOT of republicans who have endorsed Obama, when shit like that happens, it’s not good for the other guy.

You can only guess at what will happen. The closer gasoline gets to $2/gallon - the better McCain will do. This is an election about the economy. Unless it just flat sucks, people will not opt for big change regardless of who is endorsing what.

McCain lost a chunk of his conservative base when he snubbed Ron Paul at the Convention, There are very few of the couple million Ron Paul Supporters who will vote for McCain. They aren’t voting for Obama Either, but could have helped McCain Especially since they were 5X as energized as the rest of his base. The Republican Party is going to have to sleep in this bed they have made. I hope they toss and turn and stay up all night thinking about how to change it for the better, and maybe actually listen to some of the people they recently alienated.

No he didn’t. Snubbing Ron Paul pissed off a bunch of already pissed college kids. Had Paul changed his stance on the War and the gold standard, he would likely by the presidential nominee right now. But his support was rabid college kids, and the results in the primaries proved it.

I’d also like to point out Ron Paul has been dead on on his economic predictions for some time now and saw this big mess coming down the road a long time ago. I don’t care if McCain thought he was a kook on foreign policy, McCain is retarded for not embracing Pauls economic ideas.

V

Like I said - if he would come off his bullshit about the gold standard, things would be much different.

He is to 2008 what Buchanan has been in the past. And really - neither of them are that big of a deal. They say just enough good stuff to make them interesting. Then you realize that some of their ideas will never work, and they become a little wacky.

[/quote]

Ahh the typical RJ attack, nothing of substance but a whole lot of flash. You do make some good points though, I can see how over a million pissed off college kids had all the extra money to donate 12 million dollars in one quarter. Cause you know, colledge kids all over the country are loaded. You actually think anyone including myself, will be swayed by your tactic of insulting the movement by labeling it as college kids? I’m 29 an insurance agent and I supported and gave money to the paul campaign. In fact I have yet to meet a college kid who supported him, but could give you 50 people I personally know who did who are 25-60 years old. All employed taxpayers.

The problem with people like you is that you hear what you want to hear. If you actually did any research, you would have found out that while paul idelistically favors the gold standar, his actual policy position, would have been to allow a gold backed competing currency that would be more resistant to inflation. People could use this currency as a sort of security blanket for long term savings, instead of throwing thier money into the stock market and having the potential for what we are going through now happen. Anyone who was planning on retiring within the next 5 years, just cancelled those plans.

V

[quote]Vegita wrote:
McCain lost a chunk of his conservative base when he snubbed Ron Paul at the Convention, There are very few of the couple million Ron Paul Supporters who will vote for McCain. They aren’t voting for Obama Either, but could have helped McCain Especially since they were 5X as energized as the rest of his base.
V[/quote]

You are highly underestimating the stupidity of college students.

I’ve met tons of post-Paul supporters who are now pro-Obama. When I tell them they’re complete opposites, they do there best to explain to me that it is in fact McCain who is Paul’s opposite, and that Obama is going to be a fiscal President.

Its incredibly aggravating.

[quote]Vegita wrote:
… his actual policy position, would have been to allow a gold backed competing currency that would be more resistant to inflation. People could use this currency as a sort of security blanket for long term savings, instead of throwing thier money into the stock market and having the potential for what we are going through now happen. Anyone who was planning on retiring within the next 5 years, just cancelled those plans.

V[/quote]

This is an absolute joke. As soon as a government expresses this level of insecurity about it’s currency the game is over.

[quote]Zap Branigan wrote:
Vegita wrote:
… his actual policy position, would have been to allow a gold backed competing currency that would be more resistant to inflation. People could use this currency as a sort of security blanket for long term savings, instead of throwing thier money into the stock market and having the potential for what we are going through now happen. Anyone who was planning on retiring within the next 5 years, just cancelled those plans.

V

This is an absolute joke. As soon as a government expresses this level of insecurity about it’s currency the game is over. [/quote]

As opposed to pretending everything is ok? McCain 3 months ago, the fundamentals of the economy are strong? Why is it so wrong to tell people the truth even if it is bad news? And the scariest part is that it’s going to be even worse now that the bailouts are here. There will be many more bailouts and each time our dollar is going to continue to lose it’s value. Basically, it already is game over, we probably couldn’t have stopped it anyways, but some americans still wanted to give it the “college” try, pun intended. Why don’t we stop playing with things like “confidence” and start actually talking straight and addressing real problems?

V

[quote]Vegita wrote:
Ahh the typical RJ attack, nothing of substance but a whole lot of flash. You do make some good points though, I can see how over a million pissed off college kids had all the extra money to donate 12 million dollars in one quarter. Cause you know, colledge kids all over the country are loaded. You actually think anyone including myself, will be swayed by your tactic of insulting the movement by labeling it as college kids? I’m 29 an insurance agent and I supported and gave money to the paul campaign. In fact I have yet to meet a college kid who supported him, but could give you 50 people I personally know who did who are 25-60 years old. All employed taxpayers.[/quote]

Sorry kiddo - but I didn’t “attack” anything. All a million pissed off college kids needed to do was donate $12 a piece to hit $12 million in one quarter. Jut in case you slept through math class, that is about $4 per month.

They spend more than that on a cup of coffee from Starbucks.

If you think I insulted some sort of “movement”, I am sorry. I never saw a “movement”. I saw a bunch of anti-war college kids, some tin-foil hat wearing Gold Standard idiots, and a few people who actually understood his views on adhering strictly to the powers enumerated to the government in the constitution.

Just in case you skipped over some of my post, I did say that I would have voted for him if he had different stances on foreign policy (the war), and the gold standard.

I just don’t think Ron Paul’s followers represented any type of “movement”.

[quote]The problem with people like you is that you hear what you want to hear. If you actually did any research, you would have found out that while paul idelistically favors the gold standar, his actual policy position, would have been to allow a gold backed competing currency that would be more resistant to inflation. People could use this currency as a sort of security blanket for long term savings, instead of throwing thier money into the stock market and having the potential for what we are going through now happen. Anyone who was planning on retiring within the next 5 years, just cancelled those plans.
[/quote]

Exactly what is “people like me”?

You are telling me nothing I didn’t know about Paul. To think that I don’t know what I am talking about is laughable. You may not like the way I turn a phrase, or the caustic way I deliver my opinions, but to assume I only hear what I want to hear is utter ignorance on your part.

People can invest in gold if they want to hedge against a recession, or a crash in the market. The magical currency Paul wants to create would be just as volatile as the gold market is right now. As I write this, gold is under $725/oz. which is down about $200 from just a couple of weeks ago.

There is no way to factor out risk. To think Paul’s dual currency plan would eliminate risk is to admit to wearing your own brand of rose-colored glasses.

Who is going to win? Depends on which is the better dancer.

http://www.break.com/index/unbelievable-mccain-vs-obama-dance-off.html