[quote]The Mage wrote:
Ok, now that peak oil is again the topic, and now that I actually have time to respond, I will point out some of the flaws in talking about peak oil.
First, I will admit that there is a maximum production, or peak, and that oil reserves are not finite. But we have not yet hit that peak, so until that peak is hit, prices will be completely unrelated to peak oil. The current prices are related to the market forces, and overzealous investors. Not peak oil.
Now alarmists have predicted peak oil as early as 1995, and now 2007 is the popular time, or 2005 - 2010. On the opposite side is the US Geological Survey estimates that current production can continue for 50 - 100 years.
Now I will admit that there may be flaws in the Geological Survey estimate, but at the worst, I would cut their estimate in half to 25 - 50 years. Makes it important, but not the dire problem we are told it is.
But both of these estimates only include the easy to get oil. It does not include heavy oil, which may be 2 to 3 times as abundant as the light stuff. Nor does it include oil shale. Oil shale may need a little more technology, but heavy oil is here now.
There is also some argument as to how much of a peak the peak really will be, and if there really will be a big drop off, or a slower decline.
Something else not taken into account is how people react. Looking around, I have paid attention to the number of SUV’s and vans on the street, and there used to be about 50% car, 50% SUV. Interestingly it is now about 2 our of 3 are cars. Not scientific I know, but I believe it is accurate. I also have seen a large increase in motorcycles.
On the production side, did anyone here know that solar pumps are starting to be used to extract oil? They used to burn oil to run the pumps, but using solar is like getting free oil, because it would have otherwise gone up in smoke.
Ultimately I am not worried, and the biggest reason is technology. As the saying goes, necessity is the mother of invention. And a good example is in the early 80’s when a couple of billionaire brothers decided to corner the silver market. Their buying pushed up the price of silver, and investors jumped on the bandwagon to push it up even higher, until it was discovered there was no real reason for the high prices.
Now during this time the biggest user of silver was Kodak. They used it to develop pictures. But when prices rose, they did a little research and came up with a silver free development process.
Now in the late 80’s, I heard an interesting fact, that at that time, the least efficient car put out by ford got better gas mileage then the most efficient model they had 15 years prior.
It is a mistake to look at what is going on now, and assuming nothing will change. Oil will become easier to find, and easier to extract, flattening out the “peak”. Also the higher the price of oil, the more people change their habits, and the more receptive the market becomes to fuel efficient cars, and alternate fuel sources.
The alarmists only talk about instantaneous replacement, not taking into account the possibility of alternate energy used as a supplement, at least at first, again weakening the “peak”. Also when you only look at one idea in a vacuum, you end up with a distorted view. But taking everything into account, people responding to higher fuel costs, more efficient vehicles, alternate sources of energy, and coming future technology, combined this may not stop the drop in available oil production, but it might just slow it down enough that it is manageable, and less harmful to the market, and delays it even further to the point that technology has time to catch up.
Did you know that Fed-Ex and UPS are planning on phasing in fuel cell trucks over the next few years? Chrysler, Ford, and GM have spent a combined $2 billion developing fuel cells. Do you think they would do that if there were no future in it?
I am not worried at all. [/quote]
And in essence i agree 100%.