T Nation

What's Next? The After Time

Alright PWI, I think it is time to have some fun with wild speculation.

I think it is now safe to say that this pandemic is the most globally, nationally, and locally significant event I’ve lived through in my 40 years. We’re all living through history right now, and the stability most of us in the west have grown accustomed to is seemingly getting shaken up.

Who knows when it all ends and goes back to normal, or if it ever does? That’s what this thread is about. Let’s hear what you think.

I’ll lead with a prediction. Economic war with China will get hot at some point in the next 10 years.

What do you think is going to happen?

I have a feeling that in general we will see those in better positions going into this come out further ahead than they were going into it.

Many of those with high paying stable income are buying stock while it is low, and will continue for awhile. I’m fully confident we will recover, it’s just a matter of when. At this point wealth will be more concentrated.

I’m not sure if or when the many of those without wealth will become upset and demand change? I can see both outcomes (those without demanding change, or not) TBH.

I guess this isn’t wild speculation.

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I think we are still in a position where we like to give lip service about how mad we are about China and not actually do anything. China’s an easy boogeyman and will continue to be one for the foreseeable future. We are the same for them. But I think both countries are married to each other enough that they will stay together for the kids. And by kids I mean wealthy. Stock market taking a hit just not worth it. That’s my opinion on it. I fee like we don’t really have a serious push in the country to do something on China. Just like we don’t have a serious push to do anything on illegal immigrants. I mean the dude in charge had his shit made in China and still employs illegals. You have to have boogeymen so poor people blame someone else and don’t get mad at income inequality.

I think this ties in a bit with my post about growing wealth inequality. There will be a boogieman for sure. Wither people keep falling for it is the question I have.

Oh you’re spot on. Rich people will buy the shit of stocks why they are super cheap, and they will take advantage of big legislation in the recovery which they will have a huge hand in creating.

But the message will be immigrants, poor people, teachers, etc are the reasons for the problems. And if those things were fixed the nations working lower class would have it a million times better. That message is consistent and well funded and always will be. Because none of the elites want anyone looking up at them. Better to have the people look down. And hey if they have even more wealth then you can say hey look at how much they pay in taxes though. They need a cut! We should really be getting more from that mom who is barely scraping by. She needs more skin the game.

I think I will follow the general trend of this thread…but it is true…

After all of this, the richer will be richer…and the poorer will be poorer.

And most of the “new norms” that people talk about will mostly effect the poor and working scrubs (like the majority of us). We will all adjust and survive…and I firmly believe that Life will go on…

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I do think universal health care gains more support in the US through this but I think it will still be quite a while before you see it.

I think this will make people sympathetic to the idea of everyone should be able to have or afford it. But I don’t think that will come to fruition soon and maybe depending on how it’s defined at least in the general sense not what happens next in US healthcare.

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I think schools, specifically U.S. colleges will push even more for a greater number of students taking a greater number of online courses.

I don’t like that.

I feel as if some younger people will reconsider their career choices too…probably not a huge deal but some might look at the stress of being a healthcare worker right now and decide to not go into that field, others may find inspiration in it and join it. Some (myself included) may begin considering jobs that will always need to be done, even during rough times. Farming and the like.

I doubt this’ll happen again during my lifetime but who knows. I sure wasn’t expecting it now.

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I think a lot and I mean a LOT of countries are going to be looking to avoid the Chinese supply chain and doing business with the Chinese Communist Party.

They just unleashed a plague on the world and have lied about it every step of the way. That’s going to have real reprecussions, internally and externally.

We’ve seen how the world’s only totalitarian great power behaves when times are good. They steal our intellectual property, they mistreat their own workers, they run concentration camps and harvest organs.

How will the CCP react under real stress? What about 10 years of real stress. That’s my concern. That’s how you get to war. It can often start with a desperate gamble by a bad-actor regime.

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I dunno what is going to happen. The way people have reacted to this situation has had me scratching my head numerous times.

I think that we will probably see an earnings setback, again. I think we’ll see the federal government grow even larger (National Institute of Pandemics or something). States will adopt new crisis processes, ways to ramp up production of medical supplies more quickly, etc…
This probably brings M4A sooner, imo.

On a more positive note, I do think we will see a move away from Chinese production to some degree, but I’m not sure how much. Probably not a lot. We are also seeing at least some charity come out of this. Jack Dorsey (Twitter) is liquidate $1B of his net worth for Coronavirus research and then other things. I think that’s a pretty big deal.

Who know’s.

Going by what happened in 08, I think you are right. Many workers that started out of HS or college around that time have had depressed wages on average.

It will be interesting to see if the use of the socialism boogieman around M4A continues to be effective on enough on the population to keep policies like that unpopular, and out of the the realm of a real possibility.

I am interested to see how this plays out. I kinda see it like Amazon. People talk shit on Amazon all the time, but keep expanding the list of items they order from it. China is cheap. People are willing to forgive a lot of sins when it comes to their pocketbook.

IMO, the majority of people / businesses will only move away from China when another country can produce the goods for the same or lower cost.

I’m not sure if you’ve noticed, but the cost of doing business with China has just increased DRAMATICALLY. Nobody forecast it, but now that it has happened, people will go about figuring out what it cost.

The cost will be staggering.

We could see a shift away from an abundance of cheaper good in favor of locally produced higher costing products. Probably not likely, but it’s possible. I do think we might see a shift to a more minimalistic lifestyle after what will likely be the second major recession in roughly 10 years.

I know supply of some things is very inconvenient now. I have ordered some components made in China for a year supply, when normally we get them “just in time”.

I agree with you that if the cost goes up, and another country is capable of producing the item (and are already producing), people will move away.

I was arguing that most people will only move away due to things like cost, ability to supply the item. If China regresses in cost, and ability to supply, people will move away.

I guess put me in the camp of hoping you’re right but doubting it. I may not have conveyed that appropriately.

Unless evidence comes out that they did something in a lab which seem like conspiracy theories so far I don’t think they get much blame for this at the high levels.

I also think most countries lie and we’re certainly in no position given the words of our leaders to say others are misinformed and spreading half truths. People shouldn’t be remotely surprised that they lied. Do we think Russia or North Korea are being honest in regards to it? Do we think we have been all the time? Levels to it I know and we are probably on the low end of intentional deception. But maybe in the middle to high end of carelessness and arrogance in regards to it.

Please don’t get me twisted I have no love for China. But a LOT of doubt that a massive response weakens them in a significant way. This country has lip serviced that to death for the longest time.

We need to do something like this. And Amazon needs to add a sort by country of origin option.

I think you should consider applying the same level of scrutiny to the CCP that you do to Trump, at least for the time being. The story is still coming out, but big surprise, it looks like the CCP has lied about this every step of the way, all with the goal of cynically exploiting the opportunity they created in any way they possibly can.

You seem to keep falling into the “both sides do it” line of thinking that you apply to national politics. Sorry. No. They don’t. China does this shit. They just did this shit. The USA has not unleashed any terrifying new diseases upon the globe that put us at risk of global depression, nor has anyone except for China.

This was preventable, and sensible food safety policies in-line with what the rest of the developed world employs could probably have prevented it. Apparently stacking pangolins on top of chickens and ferrets in dense rows of cages rakes in billions, even though it seems to have played a part in producing the last few global pandemics.

The CCP is a uniquely bad actor on the world stage. We just learned that doing business with them is like building your house on a fault line. Things might seem fine for decades, sure you get some tremors here and there that you wouldn’t if you didn’t choose to live on the fault, but how about those views and boy, is that property increasing in value.

Then the big one hits…

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I’d like this. As you said, improbable, but we’ll see.

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Ya… I don’t love the idea of spending taxpayer dollars to bring manufacturing back to the States only to then pay higher prices on goods, but there’s the net impact on jobs and economic activity to consider. It’s interesting, though.

I think I am…I think the difference is most people on here don’t attempt to make the argument ever that the CCP won’t lie or be nefarious. Maybe I missed it but does anyone on here defend them ever?

Of course. We shouldn’t expect anything different.

Except it’s not like they are the only country that has had something horrible originate from them. I’m not making apologies, but simply because this is the worst of our time doesn’t change that fact. A huge difference between someone in China fucked up vs China intentionally had this happen. As far as I know we don’t have evidence of the latter.

Preventable vs intentional means everything. Our last financial crisis was preventable and pisses me off. But I don’t think it was intentional.

I think we’ve known this for a long time. But we have been addicted to the idea of what profits we can rake in with the marriage. When profit dominates everything in this country we can’t be surprised at these things. I think the difference in how we view this is you are confident this gets us to change and I’m not nearly there. Don’t get me twisted my disagreement is not in hoping I’m correct. I hope you’re right I’m just highly skeptical.