T Nation

US Presidential Election Predictions

Election is a week away (and the result 3 months away har-har), nobody really knows WTF is happening, so let’s find out who can pluck from their ass the best:

2016 went 304 - 227 to Trump, here’s the map:
images

Tell us your end result and the flips - then we all tell you why you’re wrong.

Here’s me:

274 - 264 Biden wins.

Flips: AZ WI PA

I can’t work out how to do the fancy maps

538 and RCP both allow you to manipulate states and then I imagine copy the pic as I’ve seen other people do it. But I can’t play around enough with it at this second.

I think Biden wins a bit bigger than that and has the potential to have a massive landslide. I’ll have to look a bit though before making an official prediction.

Biden wins. The silent Trump voter is not enough to save him from himself this time around, and more people are tired of his excuses and BS.

I have to think about state flips though. I’ll come back with something

Biden in a landslide.

Biden 334
Trump 198

I think it’s important that this election ends in a landslide because, of course, Trump is going to cry his usual refrain: Fake, cheat, etc… Well, you can say the refs cost you the game when you lose by a couple points, but not when you are blown out. Trump will get blown out.

I have to meet one of these. Trump voters tend to be pretty loud and non-subtle, in my experience.

I still think Covid makes the totals really hard to predict because doesn’t take a lot of shit to really flip some close states. But assuming the polls aren’t massively wrong (insert what about 2016 here) Biden could win relatively easily or threaten 400 EV.

Trump has paths but his margin for error seems to be zero.

Trump finishing stronger but who knows what that means at the poll.

Could be a close win either way, could be a landslide either way IMO.

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By silent I’m not thinking of the diehards. I’m referring to those who won’t tell pollsters who they’re voting for or who are embarrassed but resolved to hold their nose for Trump. By all accounts there were a lot of these in 2016.

I think you may be right but I don’t that’s true this time. We’ll see.

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Ok, here are my flips:

Wisconsin, Michigan, Arizona, Pennsylvania.

I also think either Florida or N. Carolina flip. Definitely not both.

So, right now I think final tally is Biden 320 - Trump 218

Neither do I. That portion of voters played a big spoiler role last time but I don’t think it will happen this time.

You are probably right with one exception. I dont see trump winning Michigan. Biden also has a great shot at winning Florida . I live in Texas and will start watching the returns as the polls close on the east coast. If Biden wins Florida, i can go to bed early.

A lot more undecideds last time around at this point. And we know what the comey letter did. HRC was cratering coming in with the last few polls. A lot of those states were super thin margins. That’s why Covid concerns me from an accuracy standpoint with polls. We have to expect some mail in ballots are forfeited by people fucking up filling them out. In places as close as Florida (and others) it could be enough to change the election.

Biden could crush it, Biden could win close, and Trump could win close. I don’t see a scenario where Trump wins in a landslide unless all current polling is just pure shit.

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Don’t discount this guys.

Write in Jeb Bush carried the whole fucking thing.

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Agreed about covid. I think if anything the “stay home” effect will disproportionately affect areas with high population density, which tend to be blue leaning.

There’s no way Trump wins handily. He can squeak by but as you say there’s no more room for error, and he’s made a bunch.

I think the reason they keep pushing the “Biden is a tool of the progressive faction” narrative is that Trump really wants to be running against Sanders or Warren… But he’s not.

Edit-- spelling

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Yeah he’s hard a time getting anything to stick. It’s why they have pushed the whole Kamala is taking over the moment he’s elected and she’s a socialist. Biden is the worst candidate for Trump to run against. He’s tied to a popular President and essentially has a career as a largely “boring” moderate Dem. But for some reason down the stretch Trump is talking Clinton and Sanders. None of the silly nicknames matter this time either. It’s hard to call Biden sleepy or talk about his dementia when he pretty well owned the debates and the town hall that happened at the same time.

District level polling seems to be really bad for Trump. If Election Day is as bad for Trump as that appears right now you may see some really unexpected places go blue. Biden is within striking distance in both Georgia and Texas. I have a hard time thinking either of those go blue though (I’d buy Georgia before Texas)

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I didn’t have the balls to bet this year despite the odds so I’m thinking Biden will win this.

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I’m trying to find out how I bet on Pelosi being prez.

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Trump 537
Biden 0
Kanye 1

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I think you guys well underplay how much of a consideration this is for regular people:

  • Joe is waaaay older than anyone I or anyone I know has encountered in the workforce.
  • Most of the males I know are dead or close to death at that age.
  • He goes missing for days at a time
  • He calls it a day early pretty often
  • The home stretch of his campaign is not exactly break neck

Or to put it another way, if this was a 55 year old Biden, we’d be having a very different conversation. People notice that shit, despite so many democrats turning a blind eye.

Some of this applies to Trump as well BTW and that is the only reason it isn’t a bigger deal

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Exactly, and those are the people Aragorn and antiquity think don’t exist this time around. I actually think there are MORE of them than 2016.