T Nation

Unemployment

[center]Now It’s Jobs

by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.[/center]
[i]
The downturn is following a path so predictable, day by day, that people who comprehend the business cycle don’t even need to read the news. You can intuit what will happen next because it’s happening like a textbook case – even as it is reported with a continued sense of surprise.

Press reporting on the downturn has been like reports from a committee that knows nothing about gravity, but which has nonetheless been assigned to watch what happens when you drop objects from high places.

They keep filing surprised reports about how the objects fall – what a bizarre and unwelcome turn of events – and then they conjure up ways to keep this from happening through some outside intervention. They recommend bailouts, spending, programs, controls, and inflation. [/i]


Not sure how many of you posters are affected by the loss of your job or know someone who is but I hope there isn't too much suffering.  Hopefully, prices will fall a bit more before inflation sets in so that it will make it easier on those who have.  

My wife recently lost her job in nonprofit and has decided that she'd rather be a Hausfrau anyway.  I am just thankful that we are in a position that we can make that decision.

I have noticed that a lot of the job losses have occured in industries and firms that weren’t doing so well before the economic shit-storm hit the fan. This downturn is good for the economy in weeding out some bad firms.

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:
[center]Now It?s Jobs

by Llewellyn H. Rockwell, Jr.[/center]
[i]
The downturn is following a path so predictable, day by day, that people who comprehend the business cycle don’t even need to read the news. You can intuit what will happen next because it’s happening like a textbook case – even as it is reported with a continued sense of surprise.

Press reporting on the downturn has been like reports from a committee that knows nothing about gravity, but which has nonetheless been assigned to watch what happens when you drop objects from high places.

They keep filing surprised reports about how the objects fall – what a bizarre and unwelcome turn of events – and then they conjure up ways to keep this from happening through some outside intervention. They recommend bailouts, spending, programs, controls, and inflation. [/i]


Not sure how many of you posters are affected by the loss of your job or know someone who is but I hope there isn't too much suffering.  Hopefully, prices will fall a bit more before inflation sets in so that it will make it easier on those who have.  

My wife recently lost her job in nonprofit and has decided that she'd rather be a Hausfrau anyway.  I am just thankful that we are in a position that we can make that decision.[/quote]

I have a few friends that have lost their jobs, been laid off, but thankfully my company is still growing. I got my wife a position here also at the beginning of the year. 

I am working at getting some of my friends that were laid off in here too.

My wife and both work for the same company and we are both on temporary layoff. By the way we work in automotive textiles.

One of the disturbing trends I see is premptive layoffs by profitable companies.

It’s one thing to layoff people when it gets slow. It’s another to lay them off because you think it might get bad next year.

In my business if I have to cut back it has always been a lagging thing for me not someting I do in anticipation.

[quote]hedo wrote:
One of the disturbing trends I see is premptive layoffs by profitable companies.
[/quote]

You can call it speculation.

Deciding how many people should be on staff is a constant entrepreneurial decision in that the business owner must weigh trends against expectations. It would do no good for him to wait until he has taken a full loss and then file for a bailout.

…I mean bankruptcy.

There will be a temporary halt in the collapse due to governments printing money and going into debt like crazy. This’ll last a couple of years. Sadly, its also the last Ace in their hand.

Then inflation will go into the 20 to 30% range and unemployment will really soar, with the recession bottoming in 2014.

If one considers the year 2000 as the peak, the collapse was delayed by inflating the housing bubble, and now made worse by that popping. Now we’re getting a debt bubble, which will provide a reprieve, but then its the outright collapse.

Unemployment will probably top out ‘officially’ at around 18% (which means its really 30% or so).

See my thread about this.

[quote]skaz05 wrote:
I have noticed that a lot of the job losses have occured in industries and firms that weren’t doing so well before the economic shit-storm hit the fan. This downturn is good for the economy in weeding out some bad firms.[/quote]

But the bailouts are only going to make things worse.

I’m glad to be in military right now. I still worry about possible budget cuts though.