I’ve got Cain. I think he’s tightened up a lot since the Kongo fight. He knows how to setup and get takedowns in the cage, and his top control is pretty good. He also did very well against Nog on the feet, who though shot, has good head movement and timing for a HW.
Junior has fought a similar level of competition, but no good strikers. He also hasn’t fought anyone that can wrestle like Cain. The guys he’s beaten have been good matchups for him (except Carwin, but I think most would agree it wasn’t the same Carwin we were used to seeing).
Either way, tough fight to predict, like so many in the HW division. It’s an exciting matchup because, looking at both fighter’s past opponents and how they looked against them, Cain and JDS could be evenly matched, or one guy could dominate the other. Won’t know till they fight.
Bendo over Guida: Ben does everything Clay does, but better.
Clay is one of those guys that can get the takedown, but nothing else. He doesn’t have the ground skills to pass guard and do real damage/submit. His striking skills aren’t on par with the division. He wins by outworking his opponents.
Ben isn’t that different, but he’s a much better striker and athlete all round. Plus, there’s a certain aggression that Guida flat out lacks.
This is a really bad matchup for Clay. Bendo by decision.