UFC Live/117

Bigger Stronger Leaner
21

I think Silva can end the fight more ways then Sonnen can.
Sonnen is a beast, and his confidence is at a high point.
yet he lacks the KO power the Hendo could have threatened with

I have to admit- that Sonnen is very good at making people fight his fight,
but Im not sure if he can finish or last with Silva if Silva is focused.

Alves vs Fitch
Kind of an interesting rematch Alves has improved allot, has great TDD
and Scary leg kicks and striking.
but has been out of action for a year? or close to it.

I like Fitch- he in this one he is just too tenacious.

Guida has the abilities to beat dos anjos-
lest see if training with Jackson is helping him put it together

Hughes and Almeida, this should be fun.

Hughes looked good against Renzo but Renzo is kind of o.l.d
and had not been in a fight camp , a real one in years.

Knowing Ricardo a little bit- I like him ,

I know he is making big improvements with his training
via Martin Rooney - and Frankie Edgar’s camp and his striking is improving
this could go either way

I dont think either fighter has the striking advantage here- so its going to be a power grappling match.

Nelson vs Dos Santos.

I like everything Ive seen in Dos Santos.
Speed, accuracy, KO power, decent wrestling ok BJJ.
Nelson - is kind of weird- looks are deceiving.

I like Dos Santos in this one , but really anything can happen

Some of the prelim fights are kind of cool but where did they dig Dennis Hallman from??

22

Nelson - no real reason, just a hunch

Hughes - probably wishful thinking

Guida

Alves - i’ve always been impressed by Alves, the exception being when he was physically dominated by GSP. that said, i don’t see that happening here.

Sonnen - I have been told by people who have trained with Sonnen (including Chris Leben) that he can take anyone down. i see a few ways this fight can go:

  1. Silva goes in pissed off and is the aggressor. If Silva initiates I see Sonnen taking him down quickly without much issue.

  2. Silva dances. If this happens Sonnen will have to work a little more, but if he can get him against the cage he’ll get him down.

  3. Silva goes on like the real Anderson Silva. If Silva doesn’t pull any bs and fights like he can, Sonnen is in some trouble. I still think he has a chance to get a TD and some GnP, but this is the worst scenario for him and a good chance he gets KO’d.

23

i dunno zeb, the rest of the card seems much less cut and dry - for the most part anyways. smart money says almeida should beat hughes - he’s coming down from 185 so he shouldnt experience the strength deficit that some jj guys who fight hughes have struggled with. but please, please dont let this be a f-lvl kickboxing match between two a-lvl grapplers like renzo-hughes was. i know renzo isnt a standup guy, but almeida isnt really either. hughes might be able to find success on his feet (i know his striking is pretty bad, but it was effective against renzo so he might be able to pull if off.) i really think hughes has to consider getting himself somemore training partners who are jiu jitsu guys. he typically trains with wrestlers and strikers and jeremy horn (solid submission guy, but theyve been trianing together forever.)

fitch-alves…i gotta favor fitch, tho alves has shown some awesome takedown defense against hughes, fitch tends to be more of a grinder who can stand and avoid punishment while looking for the clinch. plus he’s hungry for a title shot and this is a definite contender fight. i think fitch takes it

ill take dos santos over nelson…nelson is a savy vet with a legit grappling background, but dos santos has more ways to win and a strength and reach advantage.

24

Junior has one way to win. Almeida is a better striker than Hughes.

25

Silva vs Sonnen- I’m gonna go with Silva. I’ve gotta agree though that someone who is big, strong and has world class takedown skills like Sonnen probably poses the greatest threat to Anderson’s belt in the MW division (as that’s probably his weakest skill set). However, as evidenced by the lack of damage that Sonnen was able to inflict on Marquardt (and the horrible, horrible game plan that Marquardt implemented in that fight), I really don’t see Sonnen being able to finish Anderson even if he does get it to the ground.

Anderson’s takedown defense has also greatly improved since his match with Lutter, so I don’t think he’ll be as easy to takedown (even for Sonnen) as some might think. It will probably happen eventually (if Silva doesn’t KO Sonnen early), but I don’t know how easily Sonnen will be able to keep him there or how well he will be able to control him if he can keep him there.

Sonnen also has to be able to set up his takedowns effectively with strikes (and not get KO’d in the process), which I don’t know that he’ll be able to do. If he just dives in for takedowns from half way across the Octagon, I see Silva stuffing the vast majority of his takedown attempts. And the more he stuffs, the greater his confidence, the more tired (and desperate) that Sonnen is gonna get (which will result in less effective set ups, more telegraphing, possibly more open he’ll leave himself while striking), and the more chance that Anderson is gonna KO him.

Fitch vs Alves- I think Fitch wins the rematch. Yeah, Alves has improved a lot since they fought last, but both have only lost fights to GSP, and Fitch did a much better job than Alves did against the champ. Fitch is just too tough, too aggressive, has too good of takedowns, too much cardio, and too good of a chin for Alves IMO. IMO Fitch is still the #2 WW in the world until somebody other than GSP beats him and I don’t think it’ll be Alves. Like someone said, not too exciting, but he wins.

Hughes vs Almeida- This is a tough one to call. Almeida is used to fighting at 185, so will probably be the bigger man and shouldn’t have too much trouble with Hughes’ strength. Hughes is probably the better wrestler, but Almeida is the better submission guy. Neither is really known for their striking. It could either be a great grappling match, or sub par striking match. I’m hoping for the former.

Guida vs Dos Anjos- Gonna go with Guida. I think he’ll probably just wear down Dos Anjos like he usually does to people and pull off the decision.

Dos Santos vs Nelson- I’m gonna go with Nelson in this one. Dos Santos is the younger more athletically gifted fighter, but Nelson has fought better competition, is a better grappler (and really knows how to use his weight from the top), can take a good shot (while Junior looked a little shaken up from the few shots that Cro Cop landed on him) and has KO power. Dos Santos has reach, speed, and maybe better cardio. But I think that Nelson will find a way to make Junior fight his fight.

26

the more i think about it, the more i think sonnen is going to get absolutely annihilated at some point in this fight

27

silva is going to be under so much pressure to perform and not act like a d!ck - sonnen’s going to have an interesting night

28

Wow, Sonnen will make a GREAT politician. He’s already got selective memory “Name one fight I’ve been in where I lost”. Hmm, let’s see, how bout the 10 losses on your record, 7 of those by way of submission, 4 in the UFC alone?.

Sorry, if he manages to beat Silva, it will be by a cunt hair.

29

[quote]slimjim wrote:
the more i think about it, the more i think sonnen is going to get absolutely annihilated at some point in this fight[/quote]

I feel like people always want to see the upset, are pissed at Silva’s behavior and have Fedor’s loss fresh on the brain so they’re almost expecting Sonnen to win. I see an angry, aggressive and focused Silva beating the absolute piss out of Sonnen on the way to another dominant victory. All that shit talkin’ Sonnen’s been doing is about to get him in serious trouble.

30

I think there’s too much disparity in the striking games. Anderson isn’t an awesome boxer or anything, but he’s a level above pretty much anyone in MW, and knows how to use his reach. I think Sonnen isn’t going to be able to close the distance, and (hopefully) get finished.
The only person Silva has fought healthy that had success with a takedown was Henderson, timing a low kick and hitting a body lock. Can Sonnen do it? Can he do it consistently? Will he be able to sustain an attack from Silva’s guard without getting caught in that triangle of his? We’ll see.

Btw, there’s an interview where Marquardt says Sonnen should be able to take Silva down whenever he gets his hands on him.

31

[quote]rundymc wrote:
I think there’s too much disparity in the striking games. Anderson isn’t an awesome boxer or anything, but he’s a level above pretty much anyone in MW, and knows how to use his reach. I think Sonnen isn’t going to be able to close the distance, and (hopefully) get finished.
The only person Silva has fought healthy that had success with a takedown was Henderson, timing a low kick and hitting a body lock. Can Sonnen do it? Can he do it consistently? Will he be able to sustain an attack from Silva’s guard without getting caught in that triangle of his? We’ll see.
[/quote]

The difference though is that Henderson has some serious KO power which Anderson had to be cautious of. Sonnen hasn’t shown that he can KO people up to this point and I don’t think is as good of a striker as Dan.

Also, you’ll notice from the Leitis and Maia fights that Anderson used a lot of low side kicks (to the knee) and kicks to the calves/shins in order to still be able to score, but not put himself at much risk of having his foot caught and being taken down as a result. I suspect he’ll do much of the same if Sonnen decides to try to be defensive and try to time a takedown during a low kick.

[quote]
Btw, there’s an interview where Marquardt says Sonnen should be able to take Silva down whenever he gets his hands on him.[/quote]

Well, with all due respect for Marquardt, I really don’t know how he’s going to go around proclaiming to know how easy/difficult it is to take down Silva, since he was completely unsuccessful in doing so in their fight. That is unless he’s trained with Silva since or before hand and was able to easily take him down, therefore having some sort of experience/perspective to make that statement.

32

So buck up, little soldier. If you fall off, just get right back on
even if it’s only a keyboard you are getting on

that is a Sonnen qoute- someone linked to me pretty funny stuff.

33

Yeah Anderson hit a switch took Nate down and pounded him out.

34

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:

The difference though is that Henderson has some serious KO power which Anderson had to be cautious of. Sonnen hasn’t shown that he can KO people up to this point and I don’t think is as good of a striker as Dan.

Also, you’ll notice from the Leitis and Maia fights that Anderson used a lot of low side kicks (to the knee) and kicks to the calves/shins in order to still be able to score, but not put himself at much risk of having his foot caught and being taken down as a result. I suspect he’ll do much of the same if Sonnen decides to try to be defensive and try to time a takedown during a low kick.

Well, with all due respect for Marquardt, I really don’t know how he’s going to go around proclaiming to know how easy/difficult it is to take down Silva, since he was completely unsuccessful in doing so in their fight. That is unless he’s trained with Silva since or before hand and was able to easily take him down, therefore having some sort of experience/perspective to make that statement.[/quote]

Watching the Henderson fight again, it looked more like a mistiming on Silva’s part (he threw it when Hendo was too close).
The more I think about it, the more I get the feeling this could either go like the Maia/Leites fights or the Henderson fight. Either Silva plays it conservative and baits Chael into a standup fight, or he tags him all the way to the mat and works his top control. At least we know Chael won’t be flopping to his back or try to score a De La Riva guard.

On Nate, I think his opinion arose out of being ragdolled on the feet vs Chael. He’s either complimenting him out of courtesy, or felt a large technical void in his wrestling and Sonnen’s.

35

The thing is Hendo thought he could stand up and KO anderson, I highly doubt Chael thinks he can.

36

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:

Btw, there’s an interview where Marquardt says Sonnen should be able to take Silva down whenever he gets his hands on him.

Well, with all due respect for Marquardt, I really don’t know how he’s going to go around proclaiming to know how easy/difficult it is to take down Silva, since he was completely unsuccessful in doing so in their fight. That is unless he’s trained with Silva since or before hand and was able to easily take him down, therefore having some sort of experience/perspective to make that statement.[/quote]

That comment has nothing to do with Marquardt’s ability to take down Silva and everything to do with Sonnens ability to take him (Marquardt) down. Obviously, when a guy takes you down at will you start to develop a healthy respect for that guys takedown ability. Hence, you start to think that the guy can take anyone down. Of course we’ll have to wait and see if Marquardt is correct. And since he did fight them both, and lost to them both, he is eminently more qualified to make that guess than two faceless, nameless guys on the Internet, like you or I for example.

37

[quote]sardines12 wrote:
The thing is Hendo thought he could stand up and KO anderson, I highly doubt Chael thinks he can. [/quote]

Right, Chael is pretty one dimensional (albeit very, very skilled at that one dimension), while Hendo at least had proven that he could win both on the feet and on the ground. That should make it pretty easy for Anderson to come up with a gameplan to beat him.

That doesn’t mean that he still couldn’t pull off an upset or overpower Anderson with his wrestling, but I highly doubt he’ll surprise us with how he wins, if he does.

38

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:

Btw, there’s an interview where Marquardt says Sonnen should be able to take Silva down whenever he gets his hands on him.

Well, with all due respect for Marquardt, I really don’t know how he’s going to go around proclaiming to know how easy/difficult it is to take down Silva, since he was completely unsuccessful in doing so in their fight. That is unless he’s trained with Silva since or before hand and was able to easily take him down, therefore having some sort of experience/perspective to make that statement.[/quote]

That comment has nothing to do with Marquardt’s ability to take down Silva and everything to do with Sonnens ability to take him (Marquardt) down. Obviously, when a guy takes you down at will you start to develop a healthy respect for that guys takedown ability. Hence, you start to think that the guy can take anyone down. Of course we’ll have to wait and see if Marquardt is correct. And since he did fight them both, and lost to them both, he is eminently more qualified to make that guess than two faceless, nameless guys on the Internet, like you or I for example.
[/quote]

Perhaps, but it’s still an apples to oranges comparison. The fact that Sonnen could take Marquardt down has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not he can take Anderson down.

39

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:

Btw, there’s an interview where Marquardt says Sonnen should be able to take Silva down whenever he gets his hands on him.

Well, with all due respect for Marquardt, I really don’t know how he’s going to go around proclaiming to know how easy/difficult it is to take down Silva, since he was completely unsuccessful in doing so in their fight. That is unless he’s trained with Silva since or before hand and was able to easily take him down, therefore having some sort of experience/perspective to make that statement.[/quote]

That comment has nothing to do with Marquardt’s ability to take down Silva and everything to do with Sonnens ability to take him (Marquardt) down. Obviously, when a guy takes you down at will you start to develop a healthy respect for that guys takedown ability. Hence, you start to think that the guy can take anyone down. Of course we’ll have to wait and see if Marquardt is correct. And since he did fight them both, and lost to them both, he is eminently more qualified to make that guess than two faceless, nameless guys on the Internet, like you or I for example.
[/quote]

Perhaps, but it’s still an apples to oranges comparison. The fact that Sonnen could take Marquardt down has absolutely nothing to do with whether or not he can take Anderson down.
[/quote]

I’m with you man. I’m just trying to explain how people think. Marquardt thinks that he’s a great fighter, not a good one, a great one. In his mind, “If he can take me down he can take anyone down.” We all give ourselves more credit than we deserve when it comes to what we do for a living, or even spend a lot of time at. As men we become what we do we self identify with our careers especially, more so than women, but women can be guilty of this as well. The electrician down the street thinks he’s the best, the plumber the same thing. And neither perform their jobs in front of say one million people. We can only imagine the ego that it takes to get into a cage in front of all those people and do what they do. Not very far off from being actors really.

That’s why people like Frank Mir who get their head handed to them by a Brock Lesnar have one of three ways to think. The frist is, “I hate that guy and next time I’ll kill him.” Anger and rage take the place of reality as the facts are so bitter to swallow the person chokes up with rage. Or, "Lesnar is a great fighter (after all he beat me he must be great because I am great). This is the most healthy, even though it may not be completely accurate as Mir (or whomever) may, or may not be great, but the human (male) ego once again takes over. Of course the third one is "he got lucky, or he was greased up and I couldn’t hold him (see BJ Penn). I was sick for 5 days before the fight. I was injured 3 weeks ago it never healed. Now that isn’t to say that none of these are true, but probably not. What probably happened was the other guy beat you that night because he was better.

That’s why people like Ken Shamrock, Mark Coleman and several others, whether you like them or not, have a difficult time going into retirement. The very thing that made them at one point either great, or at least very competitive keeps them from doing the smart thing and stopping when they should. Stopping would be an admission that they can no longer do what they once did at the same level. Hence, they keep fooling themselves and unfortunately for them occasionally still win which keeps the self-denial merrygoround moving along nicely.

By the way I don’t care who agrees with me, I know I’m right. I’m the best poster on T Nation!

Okay, that was a joke, but how many times have posters clashed because they can’t admit to being wrong (me for one), or really think that they are right. And they think this because how could they possibly be wrong? After all they are much smarter than the average T Nation member (yea…). And so very well schooled in mma. Uh huh.

And by writing all of the above I am somehow trying to prove to you and everyone else that I am smarter than you. When in fact I am probably a lot less smarter than any of you, especially when it comes to mma analysis, but of course I will never admit it, at least not during a heated exchange as that would challenge my fragile ego.

Okay. that’s my analysis for the day.

40

or the guy was actually greased up and he couldnt hold him in his guard