T Nation

UFC Live/117

No thread up yet on the next few UFC events here in the next week or so, thoughts, predictions?
start with the ufc live on versus

Gomi vs Griffin- Griffin stepping in for injured Joe Stevenson, even on short notice take Griffin dec.

Ellenberger vs Howard- going with Doomsday via KO

Munoz vs Okami- pretty good step up in comp for Munoz, go with Okami dec.

Jones vs Matyshanko(sp)- Jones KO, probably some crazy flying knee/elbow combo

oh and wiki says “big” john mccarthy is back in ufc after being out almost 3 years will be good to see him back

117 Silva vs Sonnen

Nelson vs Dos Santos- winner gets title shot, Nelson’s crafty but think JDS will be too much and take it by TKO

Hughes vs Almeida- pulling for Hughes but prob be almeida by sub

Guida vs. Dos Anjos- Guida’s fights are usually always close, Carpenter by split dec

Fitch vs Alves- Alves first fight in over year, Fitch grinds out another snoozer dec

Sonnen vs Silva- Sonnen has had some good smack talk leading up to fight probably to try and sell a lackluster fight, kinda hope Silva wins via boring dec just to see what dana will do with his champ that no one really gets hyped to watch anymore.

lol, yeah,i dont know how to feel about silva’s fight…i hope we get to see some action…i really dont think sonnen can take anderson down and grind out a decision even though silva’s obviously shown some disinterest in some of his fights.

but the guy is an absolute machine when it comes to training - he gave a seminar here a couple years ago where i basically paid 25 bucks to do 3 hours of cardio, that fool did all the drills with us and didnt stop moving the entire time. he was talking the whole time we were working out too, i dont think i ever saw him get out of breath. ridiculous.

GOMI GOMI GOMI!!!

that is one of the best ufc offerings ive watched in awhile…i dont like how ambiguous strikes to the back of the head are…we’ve seen guys lose points and get stand ups-lesnar v mir, marquardt v leites…and we’ve seen guys get stoppages - florian over lauzon, jones v matyushenko…where is the consistency on this rule? eitherlet it go, or dont penalize - stop going both ways on it

[quote]slimjim wrote:
that is one of the best ufc offerings ive watched in awhile…i dont like how ambiguous strikes to the back of the head are…we’ve seen guys lose points and get stand ups-lesnar v mir, marquardt v leites…and we’ve seen guys get stoppages - florian over lauzon, jones v matyushenko…where is the consistency on this rule? eitherlet it go, or dont penalize - stop going both ways on it[/quote]

Jones vs. Matyushenko?? I must of missed those back of the head shots.

[quote]Big_Boss wrote:

[quote]slimjim wrote:
that is one of the best ufc offerings ive watched in awhile…i dont like how ambiguous strikes to the back of the head are…we’ve seen guys lose points and get stand ups-lesnar v mir, marquardt v leites…and we’ve seen guys get stoppages - florian over lauzon, jones v matyushenko…where is the consistency on this rule? eitherlet it go, or dont penalize - stop going both ways on it[/quote]

Jones vs. Matyushenko?? I must of missed those back of the head shots.[/quote]

the last 3 elbows before the fight was called clearly landed behind matyushenko’s ear, matyushenko’s hand is clearly up and covering the side of his head, the only place jones’s elbows could’ve landed is behind the ear.

The bad- Howard fight was pretty stale. John had some interesting stuff off his back, but Ellenberger stifled everything. On the feet, both guys were less than stellar.

Okami/Munoz was a case of Mark getting outclassed, how he managed a split is beyond me. I had troubled giving him the second.

The good- Gomi drew Tyson in, and landed one hell of a shot. He’s not going to be a world-beater in this reincarnation of the LW division, but he could pull off some serious victories against the Sherks, and Edgars, ie wrestlers with decent to excellent striking that need to close the distance.

Jones, obviously, showed more of the same. His dynamism is awesome to watch, but he needs to go against the upper echelon of the division. He’s ready. In fact I think he’d beat Rampage, Evans, and Shogun.

brian stann said he’s not even close to being able to beat suga.

I’m looking forward to Silva vs. Sonnen. I think Sonnen is trying to knock Silva off his game with the trash talking. Will it backfire, or will the highly emotional Anderson get caught in the trap? Either way, this promises to be a very good fight. Unlike Demian Maia, who is lethal on the ground, but didn’t have the skills to get Silva to the ground, Sonnen brings ample takedown experience in to the fight. Ironically however he has shown himself vulnerable to a variety of submissions. He’s been choked out a few times and has tapped from armbars as well.

This fight will most assuredly go to the ground. Sonnen is a well accomplished wrestler in both Greco Roman, two time national champion, and Olympic alternate. And well accomplished in freestyle as well, where he was a College All American. Will Silva’s ground game be up to the task of tapping out Sonnen? If he cannot do that he will most surely take a Nate Marquardt style beating which would please many a disgruntled fan who didn’t like his antics against Maia.

Since Sonnen is an intelligent fighter I don’t see him trying to exchange punches with Silva, as Silva’s stand-up game is surely his strongest suit. I see this fight going to the ground early on as Silva will not be able to prevent the takedown. When he fought Dan Henderson who is also a strong Greco Roman wrestler he could not prevent the takedown. Will he choke out Sonnen as he did Henderson back in 2008?

My prediction:

If you recall the Henderson fight Dan Henderson had Silva in trouble in the 1st round but was obviously not able to end it. Then Silva being the fighter he was took advantage of Henderson on the ground and choked him out in the 2nd round. I Think the same possiblility exists for Chael Sonnen if he’s not careful, however I view Sonnen as being light years smarter than Dan Henderson for a variety of reasons.

Therefore, I will go out on a limb and predict a Chael Sonnen upset. I also like the odds against Sonnen and feel that a bet for him will reap great rewards. However, while I don’t think Sonnen will get tagged shooting in, he may very well end up in trouble on the ground if not extremely careful. He needs to stay tight while on the ground and not give Silva any room as he will most assuredly take advantage of it and tap out Sonnen

Final analysis: Sonnen by ground and pound.

I’ll also take a shot at predicting the rest of the action, but some of these fights are extremely difficult to call:

Fitch over Alves, strictly on intelligence. I like Fitch on the ground. He can be cautious and boring which does not make for excitement, just victories.

Guida over Rafaei Dos Anjos, this is an emotional bet who doesn’t love Guida? Seriously, over all I do think Guida will wear him down in his relentless pursuit of trying to keep his hair out of his eyes. No really Guida will win this one.

Almeida over Hughes, This is a direct bet over my heart and with my head. I’ve always been a big Hughes fan, but his time has past. His wins over Serra and Gracie, while impressive are not enough to show that he still has what it takes to beat a very big and exceptional BJJ guy like Almeida, who has defeated guys like Nate Marquardt. It’s not that Hughes is too old, it’s that he has not grown as an mma fighter.

Junior Dos Santos over Roy Nelson, but this could be closer than many think. The reason of course is that Nelson looks like the blob that ate Kansas City. But, in reality the guy has a skilled ground game and actually beat Frank Mir in a grappling match. He’s also got some seriously heavy hands. I’ll take Dos Santos however as I think he will be able to handle Nelson on his feet and that’s as far as it will go.

There you have it, I’m interested in reading other posters predictions and look forward to a really great UFC card on the 7th.

i dont know zeb…while i think the fight will go to the ground a few times during this fight, i dont think sonnen can finish anderson there. he couldnt finish dan miller, nate marquardt, or yushin okami when he had them on their back - all wrestlers - meanwhile he was subbed by the jiu jitsu guys - maia and filho. holding silva on the ground for 5 rounds isnt going to happen, if sonnen cant finish silva before the final bell, silva will definitely find a way to finish sonnen.

[quote]slimjim wrote:
i dont know zeb…while i think the fight will go to the ground a few times during this fight, i dont think sonnen can finish anderson there. he couldnt finish dan miller, nate marquardt, or yushin okami when he had them on their back - all wrestlers - meanwhile he was subbed by the jiu jitsu guys - maia and filho. holding silva on the ground for 5 rounds isnt going to happen, if sonnen cant finish silva before the final bell, silva will definitely find a way to finish sonnen.[/quote]

That is very good reasoning on your part. On top of that I think it’s difficult for Sonnen to win a decision as the judging will certainly favor “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST WHO HAS EVER LIVED OVER THE PAST 5000 YEARS.” Well, at least that’s what some walk around thinking. Funny how the greatest martial artist was afraid to go to the ground with Maia and instead chose to play the clown. Okay, I admit it, I want him to lose and I’m betting with my heart, but I wouldn’t if the odds were closer.

I like the odds and can win a bundle if Sonnen pulls it off. And I think that if he does enough damage with his ground and pound he may be able to have the fight stopped. If not maybe even a biased judge watching “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST EVER” will have to actually give a fair assessment and award Sonnen the victory.

Yes the odds are against it happening I know, but I see how it can happen, and I’m primarily betting it because of those odds.

Yeah he sucks for not wanting to go to the ground with the best bjj specialist mma has ever seen, pussy. And Randy Couture better not be a bitch an not stand with James Toney because Zeb will think he sucks.

Some of the shit I read here just blows my mind.

[quote]sardines12 wrote:
Yeah he sucks for not wanting to go to the ground with the best bjj specialist mma has ever seen, pussy. And Randy Couture better not be a bitch an not stand with James Toney because Zeb will think he sucks.

Some of the shit I read here just blows my mind. [/quote]

I know how you feel because what you just wrote blows my mind.

Maybe if you correctly comprehended what I wrote you would be able to understand it more fully, and then magically your mind would not be blown, at least not from this.

First of all your example of Couture has no basis. Who has said in recent times, or ever for that matter, that Randy Couture was the greatest martial artist? Right, no one. I am not saying that an average fighter with a winning record should not play to his strengths. However, as “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST” more is expected of Silva and in fact less was delivered in the Maia fight.

Some in the UFC and others have said that Anderson Silva is the greatest pound for pound martial artist. In fact, many have said he could go to HW and beat some top contenders. Pretty stupid, you can understand that right? Most who have seen Silva know that he would get crushed by any of the top HW. However, this is the hype that not only surrounds Silva, but the hype that he has indeed bought into. Wasn’t that obvious in his last outing?

When “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST” back peddles for 3 or 4 rounds and acts like a High School kid, (no wait they are not aloud to act that immature in a sporting event, or they’re ejected) against anyone, even a great BJJ practitioner I think that should call in to question his real skills, at least on the ground.

Yea, he’s a great mma fighter, no question. But the hype, his childish antics, and the fact that he ran from Maia would cause anyone to question his “greatness.” Well, almost anyone. You are too busy making pointless Randy Couture comparisons to fully comprehend the meaning of my post.

I hope this clears things up for you.

Zeb

Yeah it clears things up, now I know 100 percent your an idiot.

[quote]sardines12 wrote:
Yeah it clears things up, now I know 100 percent your an idiot. [/quote]

i know grammar and spelling arent always the clearest examples of intelligence, god knows i never capitalize and hardly ever throw in an apostrophe and my spelling can be off, but, and this is for everyone, if you want to say someone is an idiot, it is always you’RE (as in you are) rather than your (as in the possessive)

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]slimjim wrote:
i dont know zeb…while i think the fight will go to the ground a few times during this fight, i dont think sonnen can finish anderson there. he couldnt finish dan miller, nate marquardt, or yushin okami when he had them on their back - all wrestlers - meanwhile he was subbed by the jiu jitsu guys - maia and filho. holding silva on the ground for 5 rounds isnt going to happen, if sonnen cant finish silva before the final bell, silva will definitely find a way to finish sonnen.[/quote]

That is very good reasoning on your part. On top of that I think it’s difficult for Sonnen to win a decision as the judging will certainly favor “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST WHO HAS EVER LIVED OVER THE PAST 5000 YEARS.” Well, at least that’s what some walk around thinking. Funny how the greatest martial artist was afraid to go to the ground with Maia and instead chose to play the clown. Okay, I admit it, I want him to lose and I’m betting with my heart, but I wouldn’t if the odds were closer.

I like the odds and can win a bundle if Sonnen pulls it off. And I think that if he does enough damage with his ground and pound he may be able to have the fight stopped. If not maybe even a biased judge watching “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST EVER” will have to actually give a fair assessment and award Sonnen the victory.

Yes the odds are against it happening I know, but I see how it can happen, and I’m primarily betting it because of those odds.
[/quote]

i hear ya zeb, i was pretty disappointed with what anderson did with maia. maia is not a dickhead and is actually a pretty humble and respectful dude, acting like an ass in the ring against him when he was actually there to fight - maia was willing to go out on his shield and try to strike with anderson despite being at a severe disadvantage - was pretty despicable in my opinion. ive often thought that a strong wrestler who would be able to close the distance, take anderson down and rough him up a bit would be the best challenge to anderson. i think it could happen, honestly sonnen’s skillset should translate a little better to this fight than maia’s, but i just dont know how chael’s going to have the stamina to continue to take anderson down while avoiding punishment

[quote]slimjim wrote:

[quote]sardines12 wrote:
Yeah it clears things up, now I know 100 percent your an idiot. [/quote]

i know grammar and spelling arent always the clearest examples of intelligence, god knows i never capitalize and hardly ever throw in an apostrophe and my spelling can be off, but, and this is for everyone, if you want to say someone is an idiot, it is always you’RE (as in you are) rather than your (as in the possessive)[/quote]
Ahh the your grammar sucks defense, really unoriginal bruh, and I’m sorry I don’t take the time to make sure my grammar is perfect I have better things to do.

[quote]sardines12 wrote:

[quote]slimjim wrote:

[quote]sardines12 wrote:
Yeah it clears things up, now I know 100 percent your an idiot. [/quote]

i know grammar and spelling arent always the clearest examples of intelligence, god knows i never capitalize and hardly ever throw in an apostrophe and my spelling can be off, but, and this is for everyone, if you want to say someone is an idiot, it is always you’RE (as in you are) rather than your (as in the possessive)[/quote]
Ahh the your grammar sucks defense, really unoriginal bruh, and I’m sorry I don’t take the time to make sure my grammar is perfect I have better things to do. [/quote]

dude, it’s just ironic when people call other people idiots, but fuck up on their usage of ‘your’ and ‘you’re’

[quote]slimjim wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]slimjim wrote:
i dont know zeb…while i think the fight will go to the ground a few times during this fight, i dont think sonnen can finish anderson there. he couldnt finish dan miller, nate marquardt, or yushin okami when he had them on their back - all wrestlers - meanwhile he was subbed by the jiu jitsu guys - maia and filho. holding silva on the ground for 5 rounds isnt going to happen, if sonnen cant finish silva before the final bell, silva will definitely find a way to finish sonnen.[/quote]

That is very good reasoning on your part. On top of that I think it’s difficult for Sonnen to win a decision as the judging will certainly favor “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST WHO HAS EVER LIVED OVER THE PAST 5000 YEARS.” Well, at least that’s what some walk around thinking. Funny how the greatest martial artist was afraid to go to the ground with Maia and instead chose to play the clown. Okay, I admit it, I want him to lose and I’m betting with my heart, but I wouldn’t if the odds were closer.

I like the odds and can win a bundle if Sonnen pulls it off. And I think that if he does enough damage with his ground and pound he may be able to have the fight stopped. If not maybe even a biased judge watching “THE GREATEST MARTIAL ARTIST EVER” will have to actually give a fair assessment and award Sonnen the victory.

Yes the odds are against it happening I know, but I see how it can happen, and I’m primarily betting it because of those odds.
[/quote]

i hear ya zeb, i was pretty disappointed with what anderson did with maia. maia is not a dickhead and is actually a pretty humble and respectful dude, acting like an ass in the ring against him when he was actually there to fight - maia was willing to go out on his shield and try to strike with anderson despite being at a severe disadvantage - was pretty despicable in my opinion. ive often thought that a strong wrestler who would be able to close the distance, take anderson down and rough him up a bit would be the best challenge to anderson. i think it could happen, honestly sonnen’s skillset should translate a little better to this fight than maia’s, but i just dont know how chael’s going to have the stamina to continue to take anderson down while avoiding punishment[/quote]

Good analysis once again. If you look at the Henderson fight you will see that Hendo had Silva in trouble early in the fight, but could not finish it. If memory serves he may have had his back. Travis Lutter also had the great Anderson Silva mounted at one point. I take nothing away from Silva, but as you say if a really good wrestler can take him down and rough him up that will go a long way in throwing him off his game.

What’s your take on the rest of the fight card?

[quote]sardines12 wrote:
Yeah it clears things up, now I know 100 percent your an idiot. [/quote]

Nice retort. I especially liked the way you developed your primary thesis. I’m not surprised, I remember some of your previous comments in other mma threads. Why don’t we stop the back and forth from this point forward? Just skip over my posts, and I’ll do the same with yours.