UFC 73: Stacked

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This Saturday, July 7, we are given what is being called a “Stacked” card by the UFC. While I think UFC 74 is shaping up to be a better card, two title fights and a brilliant co-main event do enough to give the moniker some cred:

-Anderson Silva vs. Nathan Marquardt (MW Title)

An interesting match up. Marquardt seems to do everything well, but nothing great. I, like a lot of fans, really haven’t seen enough of Nate (save for the hilarious Youtube clip of Renzo Gracie soccer kicking him in the face after he tried to hit Alameida after the bell). Anderson will want to stay up and Nate will want to take it down, it’s that simple.

I think Anderson can use his length and speed to land strikes on Nate and keep him at bay to pull out a 3rd round TKO. Toughest fight to call in my book, with odds of 2.25 to 1 I would put money on Nate.

-Antonio Rodrigo Nogueira vs. Heath Herring

Nog’s debut makes this interesting. The fact that he has beat Herring twice already doesn’t. Herring has failed to live up to his potential and the UFC looks to be using the last fight on his contract to put over the veteran Brazilian. Hopefully he pulls off a sweet submission and Herring just doesn’t lay down so he can show some of the heart that had made him legendary. Nog, sub round 2. Next stop for Nog: UFC title.

-Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans

The most compelling fight on this card, and not even a title fight (the UFC 74 match up of Koschek-GSP will probably do the same to that card). The Rashad band wagon has gained a lot of momentum, and the way a lot of people are talking he should be the easy favorite. For good reason, too.

Rashad has a much better pedigree than Tito in Tito’s own bread and butter, wrestling. The fact the fight is only three rounds definetely hurts Tito’s other main strength, which is his fantastic conditioning. Rashad is also quicker, and seems to have developed superior stand up almost overnight. Tito has experience on his side, and the added motivation of knowing that a loss could forever put him out of another title run in the UFC.

His defense is top notch, and Rashad will have one hell of time putting him away. I don’t see this fight ending, and I really think Rashad can eek out a decision over Tito. Look for Tito to start strong, and Rashad to rally late.

-Sean Sherk vs. Hermes Franca (LW Title)

Sherk will lay on Hermes to a decision. Hermes won’t stop the takedown, and he won’t submit Sherk from his back. Sherk UD. Whoever wins will face BJ Penn, which will be the fight to really light a fire under the UFC LW title.

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Nice write-up. I see The Sherk-Franca fight being exciting. Franca has been very entertaining in the past.

I agree with you about Evans eeking out a decision, however.

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I though Rashad’s conditioning has never been quite where it should be, so i’ll give the third round to Tito and the fight to him, as well. I think it will be one of those fights that could go either way, though, so who knows.

Also, I thought Penn wanted to go up to Middleweight?

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Donut, good analysis. I’ll offer my opinions:

Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt for MW Title:

I see this one going the distance, with Silva unable to drop Marquardt (who has a good chin) and unable to secure a submission. Marquardt has a definitive edge in strength, and I think he’ll use that to his advantage, taking down the smaller Silva at will. He’ll land some ground and pound but won’t do enough to put Silva away. Marquardt’s style may not be the most exciting, but it’s very effective.

Prediction: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

Tito Ortiz vs. Rashad Evans:

UFC has been trying to stir up “bad blood” between the two, but I’m not sure if anyone’s buying into it. The main reason this fight is happening is because UFC needs to see if A) Ortiz can still fight at a top level and B) if Evans is ready for prime time.

Evans is a bit overrated if you ask me. He’s an outstanding wrestler, but aside from one highlight reel leg kick against Sean Salmon, hasn’t shown me all that much aside from great takedown ability. Ortiz, like him or not, always comes ready to fight. You know he’s going to be in great condition and with it being a 3-round fight, will look to come out strong, as he did in prior 3-round fights against Forrest Griffen and Vitor Belfort.

Tito’s standup is improving and his defense is pretty good, but he hasn’t finished anyone not named Shamrock since 2002. Still, I think Ortiz’s experience wins out over Evans’ wrestling ability.

Prediction: Ortiz by split decision.

Sean Sherk vs. Hermes Franca for LW Title:

This could end up being the fight of the year if it goes long enough. Both are exciting fighters who always bring it to the octagon. Franca has won his last eight fights, so he comes in with momentum, especially since Sherk is coming off the DL following his win over Kenny Florian. Sherk will have the edge in strength, making it tough for Franca to secure a submission.

Sherk has devastating ground and pound attacks, and look for him to have little trouble taking Franca down when he wants to. For some reason, I see this one ending with a KO on the feet.

Prediction: Sherk via 3rd round KO.

Antonio Rodrigo Nogiera vs. Heath Herring:

Big Nog has already defeated the “Texas Crazy Horse” twice in PRIDE, so don’t expect this to be any different. This fight is to showcase Nog to the UFC audience. He’ll either fight Silvia, Arlovsky or Couture-Gonzaga next. Herring may be on his way out with another loss.

Prediction: Nog by 1st round submission.

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I just saw Sean Sherk’s training. Holy shit, that guy’s a power house.

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[quote]Hagar wrote:
I just saw Sean Sherk’s training. Holy shit, that guy’s a power house. [/quote]

Where?

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[quote]RagingBull wrote:
Hagar wrote:
I just saw Sean Sherk’s training. Holy shit, that guy’s a power house.

Where?[/quote]

It was on Spike All Access. Im sure it will be replayed a couple of times by the time the fight comes.

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[quote]Djwlfpack wrote:
Donut, good analysis. I’ll offer my opinions:

Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt for MW Title:

I see this one going the distance, with Silva unable to drop Marquardt (who has a good chin) and unable to secure a submission. Marquardt has a definitive edge in strength, and I think he’ll use that to his advantage, taking down the smaller Silva at will. He’ll land some ground and pound but won’t do enough to put Silva away. Marquardt’s style may not be the most exciting, but it’s very effective.

Prediction: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

[/quote]

I basically agree with everything you wrote but this, and I will concede you appear to be more knowledgeable than I in regards to said topic. However, I offer this.

Leben came in thinking he could weather Silva’s stand up, avoid the takedown and roll over him referring to himself as a “dumptruck.” Wrong.

Franklin came in thinking his strength would be the clinch. Wrong.

Lutter came in basically saying, I could train Muay Thai my entire life and never be as skilled as Silva. Silva could train Jui-Jitsu his whole life and never be as good as me. Silva submitted his ass. Not only that but Lutter used weight loss as an excuse when the reality of this is if you are so much better at something that your opponent could never be as good as you that’s not a valid excuse. Anderson toyed with him.

Anyway, I am saying Silva by ugly knockout or submission in the 2nd.

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I hope that Rashad Evans wins. I think Tito has his “GnE” (Ground and elbow to the head) tactic and thats it. Hoping for a cut to stop the fight is a shitty way to win. Forrest Griffin was smart enough to avoid the takedown and in my opinion was robbed of the victory. Forrest clearly fought the better fight. If Rashad can do the same he will win…

Sherk will dominate…Hermes doesn’t have a chance. I see Nog taking a victory and Silva with a KO

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I also thought Forrest won that fight with Ortiz.

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thanks…i have 3-4 friends who agree

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[quote]apwsearch wrote:
Djwlfpack wrote:
Donut, good analysis. I’ll offer my opinions:

Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt for MW Title:

I see this one going the distance, with Silva unable to drop Marquardt (who has a good chin) and unable to secure a submission. Marquardt has a definitive edge in strength, and I think he’ll use that to his advantage, taking down the smaller Silva at will. He’ll land some ground and pound but won’t do enough to put Silva away. Marquardt’s style may not be the most exciting, but it’s very effective.

Prediction: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

I basically agree with everything you wrote but this, and I will concede you appear to be more knowledgeable than I in regards to said topic. However, I offer this.

Leben came in thinking he could weather Silva’s stand up, avoid the takedown and roll over him referring to himself as a “dumptruck.” Wrong.

Franklin came in thinking his strength would be the clinch. Wrong.

Lutter came in basically saying, I could train Muay Thai my entire life and never be as skilled as Silva. Silva could train Jui-Jitsu his whole life and never be as good as me. Silva submitted his ass. Not only that but Lutter used weight loss as an excuse when the reality of this is if you are so much better at something that your opponent could never be as good as you that’s not a valid excuse. Anderson toyed with him.

Anyway, I am saying Silva by ugly knockout or submission in the 2nd.

[/quote]

If one followed mma worldwide I think it was obvious that Anderson Silva was superior to Leben before they fought. Same with Franklin in regards to their striking.

Actually here is a list of fight outcomes I think should not have been surprising:
Silva-Leben
Silva-Franklin
Liddell-Rampage
Henderson-Silva
Diaz-Gomi
Marquardt is the best fighter Silva will have faced in the UFC to this point.

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i was not surprised at Rampage-Liddell but i was surprised at Silva -Franklin

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[quote]JokerFMJ wrote:
I also thought Forrest won that fight with Ortiz.[/quote]

I had it as a draw (10-8 Tito in round one, 10-9 Forrest in rounds two and three) and wasn’t upset that Tito won. Tito beat the holy hell out of Griffin in the first round and came very close to finishing the fight, while Forrest barely eked out the last two rounds by playing pattycake and sprawling without ever putting Tito in any kind of trouble.

Under PrideFC scoring, Ortiz wins that fight in a cakewalk. The only reason Forrest had a chance is because the 10 point must system is ill-suited for MMA.

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[quote]otoko wrote:
If one followed mma worldwide I think it was obvious that Anderson Silva was superior to Leben before they fought. Same with Franklin in regards to their striking.

Actually here is a list of fight outcomes I think should not have been surprising:
Silva-Leben
Silva-Franklin
Liddell-Rampage
Henderson-Silva
Diaz-Gomi
Marquardt is the best fighter Silva will have faced in the UFC to this point.
[/quote]

Of course it was obvious, somebody with no practical knowledge of MMA could have read that on any forum.

I am just pointing out how well rounded Silva is.

What can I say? I am a Silva fan.

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I’ve only seen Nathan Marquardt fight against Almeida but that was ages ago. Anyone got a link to any of his recent fights so I can see why so many think he will do Silva?

I think Sherk v Franca might be a good one. Franca always puts on a show.

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[quote]apwsearch wrote:
Djwlfpack wrote:
Donut, good analysis. I’ll offer my opinions:

Anderson Silva vs. Nate Marquardt for MW Title:

I see this one going the distance, with Silva unable to drop Marquardt (who has a good chin) and unable to secure a submission. Marquardt has a definitive edge in strength, and I think he’ll use that to his advantage, taking down the smaller Silva at will. He’ll land some ground and pound but won’t do enough to put Silva away. Marquardt’s style may not be the most exciting, but it’s very effective.

Prediction: Marquardt by unanimous decision.

I basically agree with everything you wrote but this, and I will concede you appear to be more knowledgeable than I in regards to said topic. However, I offer this.

Leben came in thinking he could weather Silva’s stand up, avoid the takedown and roll over him referring to himself as a “dumptruck.” Wrong.

Franklin came in thinking his strength would be the clinch. Wrong.

Lutter came in basically saying, I could train Muay Thai my entire life and never be as skilled as Silva. Silva could train Jui-Jitsu his whole life and never be as good as me. Silva submitted his ass. Not only that but Lutter used weight loss as an excuse when the reality of this is if you are so much better at something that your opponent could never be as good as you that’s not a valid excuse. Anderson toyed with him.

Anyway, I am saying Silva by ugly knockout or submission in the 2nd.

[/quote]

I don’t agree with you on the points about Lutter. He never used weight loss as an excuse, everyone else did. He said he didn;t want to use that as an excuse.

Also, Silva was not toying with him. You don’t let someone pass and mount you. Silva was in a bit of trouble there. He is outstanding on his feet, and his submission game is solid. But he has been beaten a number of times but I hope it doesn’t happen.

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I think those of you who are claiming that Rashad Evans is going to beat Tito Ortiz are going to be disappointed.

Tito’s wrestling ability cancels out Rashads. And when it comes to the ground and pound game no one is better than Tito, well almost no one.

I’m going to call Tito a winner by referee stoppage.

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[quote]AdamC wrote:

I don’t agree with you on the points about Lutter. He never used weight loss as an excuse, everyone else did. He said he didn;t want to use that as an excuse.

Also, Silva was not toying with him. You don’t let someone pass and mount you. Silva was in a bit of trouble there. He is outstanding on his feet, and his submission game is solid. But he has been beaten a number of times but I hope it doesn’t happen.

[/quote]

That’s cool, it’s just an opinion and one based on a couple months back.

Now that you say that I am going to go back and watch the Lutter fight again as I am pretty sure it is still on my moxi.

The one statement I will make in regards to Lutter is that when you state someone could train a discipline their entire life and never be as good as you it’s a pretty strong statement when they beat you at your own game.

Bottom line, hopefully this will be as good a card as it appears on paper.

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I’m picking Marquardt with a submission in round 4 or 5

Sherk gets a KO/TO in round 3

Tito gets a UD

Big Nog submission in round 2

I think Edgar vs Bocek is gonna be an exciting fight, if it goes to the ground Edgar is in huge trouble