T Nation

UFC 166: Cained to Junior Status?

The upcoming heavy weight title fight with Champion Cain Velasquez trying to fend of Junior Dos Santos is approaching on Saturday, October 19.

The thing that really got me to start this thread, and hopefully some discussion, is the circumstances of their previous 2 fights. JDS the first time sensationally KOed Cain at the one minute mark, and revealed afterwards that he was afraid to fight Cain because he had torn the meniscus in his left knee during training, and decided to be super motivated to end the affair as quickly as possible, despite risk. The fight was the first Free UFC event on FOX network television to promote the sport and Junior didn’t want to let everyone down, I suppose including himself, by pulling out of it.

Velasquez after their second tilt claimed that he had torn the ACL in his left knee during training, had the same not let them down feeling as Junior, didn’t push forward as fast as he did for the second fight, and didn’t go public with it originally because he didn’t want to claim an excuse for losing, which is noble of him.

For the second joust at it, Cain pummelled Junior terrifically, and Junior just didn’t want to give up, again noble on his part. Junior afterwards said that during his post fight hospital check up that his creatine was over 1000, (not an area of my expertise) and that he simply overtrained for the fight. What I am getting at here is that I viewed a video interview of him with Ariel Helwani recently and he didn’t mention anything about that, so I wonder how much stock one can put into saying it wasn’t the real Junior that night, just like it wasn’t the real Cain during the first fight.

It is true that JDS finished off Mark Hunt in almost 15 minutes, got the knockdown with a hit behind the ear, which he likely wanted to showcase he can still do. He also in the second round took Hunt down and kept him there for a little while. then the 3rd round hook/wheel kick combination KO.

Still, Cain showcased in the second fight an overhand shot that he trained with the help of a respected boxing coach (I forget who) that rocked Junior early and Junior was never really in the fight. Cain said recently that when JDS expects strikes, there will be takedowns, and vice versa.

Some had said a few months ago that the odds are 60/40 Cain retains the belt. I am beginning to think that junior’s skills might be well nullified by Cain, that is a kick attempt will get Junior taken down (ask Antonio Silva) and a takedown will be readily reversed. The boxing by itself might not be such an advantage for JDS as it once was. So, as much as I would like to see Junior win, I suspect Velasquez will be champion for some time.

Wile I am at it, will it be finny if Overeem gets beaten again? His UFC premiering win over Brock Lesnar may have been helped by a high testosterone level, so when does he get a legitimate win in the big pond?

The two fights were, while exciting, not terribly difficult to sum up:

“Brown is Beautiful” vs “scared KO machine” I:
Both weren’t 100%, but MMA fighters seldom are.
Junior swung a risky right sledgehammer and connected beautifully, then finished.
An intense, short bout.
Bottom line wasn’t surprising: Junior has maybe the most dangerous hands in all heavyweight MMA. Cain’s defense, especially his head defense, lacks. He relies more on [well deserved!] respect from his opponents than he should, for defense.

“the man with the horrible entry” vs “I don’t need a bimbo gf” II:
Maybe Cain’s most efficient weapon is his ring dominance. He establishes a FAST pace and a rythm. If you cannot cope with that, you’re going to get smothered and squashed.
Cain was aggressive early on while Junior’s reflexes and ego lacked.
One fatal punch came through early and this one punch settled the whole fight.
Junior pulled himself together remarkebly, but it was just a display of heart, not hope.

“Secretariat” vs “on second thought maybe I do want a hottie with implants” III:
Junior still has all the tools to beat Cain, probably more so than vice versa.
The Brazilian has to find and establish range early.
If he can do that, the sprawls will be there and his right will eventually find Cain’s great-looking- but-truthfully-not-so-granite chin.
He cannot be too shy.
Otherwise something brown & proud will land and wolverine-like instincts will ensure Junior will pay dearly.

You mean if Overeem is finished/fini? He’d get the UFC boot pretty sure (90% I’d say).
Bellator will still give him some decent paydays if Mir pulls a Kongo-Barry. Maybe even Japan. Not very likely to happen, however. Mir is godsend for Overeem.

And what do you mean, “his win over Lesnar may have been helped by a high T-level”?
Who hasn’t, at heavyweight?

I’d say that Cain is the more well rounded fighter overall, but with Junior’s reach advantage and Cain’s at times questionable chin I could see Junior pulling off an upset. I think Cain is going to retain the belt though as his chances for victory don’t hinge on landing one perfectly placed strike, where as that is pretty much Junior’s only chance.

Am I the only one who thinks JDS’ s power is overrated? Yeah, he’s quick and he’s accurate, but he’s never actually ko’d anyone. It’s always been ref stoppages. He couldn’t even ko an old Crocop who’d clearly thrown the fight. He seems like a genuine guy, and he’s definitely a hell of a fighter, but I feel like he’s more a product of the UFC hype machine than actual ability.

Werdum didn’t excactly look like he was going to jump right back up even if JDS hadn’t followed up with gnp, the iron jaw samoan warrior Hunt pretty much fell flat on his back, I’d say he can pack a punch. When does a fight resulting in a clean ko not end by ref stoppage though?

JDS doesn’t have world beater power and Cain has just as much I’d say. But Cain also has shown a questionable chin at times (he got dropped by a jab against Kongo), so I don’t think it really matters that JDS isn’t Mike Tyson. If JDS connects flush on Cain, he has enough power to KO/TKO him.

Pretty simple fight to breakdown. Either JDS lands a big shot, or Cain decisions him, maybe a TKO. Look for Cain to have improved his top game, JDS got up a lot, he may even go for multiple submissions.

[quote]WhiteFlash wrote:
Am I the only one who thinks JDS’ s power is overrated? Yeah, he’s quick and he’s accurate, but he’s never actually ko’d anyone. It’s always been ref stoppages. He couldn’t even ko an old Crocop who’d clearly thrown the fight. He seems like a genuine guy, and he’s definitely a hell of a fighter, but I feel like he’s more a product of the UFC hype machine than actual ability. [/quote]

Disagreed.

As I’m too lazy to search for an older posting of mine, let me just repeat myself:

Junior has crazy good boxing in a thin division.

In particular, that means he has a complete boxer’s arsenal- jab, uppercut, left hook, and the right, thrown straight or as an overhand.
He makes good use with all of 'em.
Combinations, working the body, footwork; he’s got it.

THat is quite something.

Don’t forget his nice sprawls and you got worthy contender material.

let’s hear the Greatest of all Times’ opinion:

tl;dl
He favours Cain because he’s a smart fighter with more options.

[quote]Schwarzfahrer wrote:
let’s hear the Greatest of all Times’ opinion:

tl;dl
He favours Cain because he’s a smart fighter with more options.
[/quote]

Apologies for poor forum etiquette - but I wish he could have cleared out the HW UFC division just to spite Dana White, but that’s life.

[quote]treco wrote:

[quote]Schwarzfahrer wrote:
let’s hear the Greatest of all Times’ opinion:

tl;dl
He favours Cain because he’s a smart fighter with more options.
[/quote]

Apologies for poor forum etiquette - but I wish he could have cleared out the HW UFC division just to spite Dana White, but that’s life.[/quote]
He couldn’t have regardless as he couldn’t beat Werdum or Big Foot.

Treco, your avatar kills me. I wonder if you might post the lower body showing him doing take with a pig. (ref: Ain’t done took)

Fedor lost to Werdum and Bigfoot when he was well past his prime (and thus had lost some of his speed, strength, and ability to take a shot) and had been kind of floundering around without a real solid pool of quality opponents for years prior to those losses. Had he been in his prime he likely would have beat both of those fighters.

Stylistically I think he would have had issues with Cain, JDS, possibly Overeem (depending on whether it was pre or post drug testing Overeem), and possibly Nelson (who could have walked through anything that Fedor could throw, has the KO power to potentially KO Fedor, and who could have given Fedor problems had he got on top of him on the ground).

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:
Fedor lost to Werdum and Bigfoot when he was well past his prime (and thus had lost some of his speed, strength, and ability to take a shot) and had been kind of floundering around without a real solid pool of quality opponents for years prior to those losses. Had he been in his prime he likely would have beat both of those fighters.

Stylistically I think he would have had issues with Cain, JDS, possibly Overeem (depending on whether it was pre or post drug testing Overeem), and possibly Nelson (who could have walked through anything that Fedor could throw, has the KO power to potentially KO Fedor, and who could have given Fedor problems had he got on top of him on the ground). [/quote]

It is enough for me to see a champion succeed during his era. Were the 60s Packers absolutely dominant? Sure. Could they beat any team today? Not a chance outweighed 100 lbs a position. Fedor came to win by sub or ko, pulled off victories wherever the fight happened to go, and was a gracious champion throughout that long reign. /derail

[quote]treco wrote:

[quote]Sentoguy wrote:
Fedor lost to Werdum and Bigfoot when he was well past his prime (and thus had lost some of his speed, strength, and ability to take a shot) and had been kind of floundering around without a real solid pool of quality opponents for years prior to those losses. Had he been in his prime he likely would have beat both of those fighters.

Stylistically I think he would have had issues with Cain, JDS, possibly Overeem (depending on whether it was pre or post drug testing Overeem), and possibly Nelson (who could have walked through anything that Fedor could throw, has the KO power to potentially KO Fedor, and who could have given Fedor problems had he got on top of him on the ground). [/quote]

It is enough for me to see a champion succeed during his era. Were the 60s Packers absolutely dominant? Sure. Could they beat any team today? Not a chance outweighed 100 lbs a position. Fedor came to win by sub or ko, pulled off victories wherever the fight happened to go, and was a gracious champion throughout that long reign. /derail[/quote]
give me a break dude, rodrigo is still competitive against a lot of the young fighters prime Fedor wrecks current HW’s or at least stays competitive. You act like he fought 100 yrs ago.

So do people say Cain has a chin…or JDS has lettuce hands after this fight?? Lol.

Also…has anyone put a thought into Cain’s exceptional cardio and it’s effects on recovering from hard shots.

That was a good card!
Pretty raw, too.

First of all, yeah he has a chin. He also established- strike that, rather he cemented - pace & range.
Junior could never combine punches and good movement and find his fight.
But boy is Junior tough!

DC perhaps has the best shot at Cain, just stylistically, but it might get boring.
Final-form Ubereem could destroy him with his knees. I believe Junior is actually a worse matchup for him.
Maybe Barnett, let’s see two more fights first.
Who did I miss? A guard-aggressive Werdum ?

Fuck! Yes, Cained to Junior status. Also we must now believe that Cain didn’t actually try, at least not all that hard, to finish him in the second fight. Junior had a medical team monitoring him for this one so there can’t be any excuses, Junior couldn’t mount an offence under relentless pressure against the fence. I just about had a stroke when Herb Dean almost stopped it when, the second round?

I wonder who is getting Overeem next.

Cormier looks like he will drop to LHW because he doesn’t want to fight his team mate Cain. Him and Jones have a bit of mouthing off, so all the more likely I guess.

[quote]DeadKong wrote:
I wonder who is getting Overeem next.

Cormier looks like he will drop to LHW because he doesn’t want to fight his team mate Cain. Him and Jones have a bit of mouthing off, so all the more likely I guess.
[/quote]

Reem is fighting Mir in February, although that should be about as winnable of a matchup he will ever get in the UFC. I don’t see DC posessing any decent challenge against Bones, JBJ has the athletic edge, has the reach to keep this fight in his comfort zone and although DC is a really exceptional wrestler by MMA standards, I don’t see him being able to set any of that clinching or takedowns up with his hands when his lead leg is constantly getting push kicked. Also was kind of surprised Roy didn’t try to come over the top of that jab, DC was throwing it out there a lot and certainly would’ve been better than the just eating it. That and the fact that his overhand right is basically his biggest shot to take out any top guy.

Cain was pretty impressive, kind of sucks seeing JDS take such a beating again, guy is definitely a warrior but there are only so many wars you have in you before your body can take no more, and usually that shit takes a toll on the brain before your body gives in. His post fight speech already reminded me of Wandy…

Melendez fought a good fight too, props for wanting to put on a show and dishing it out for the fans. I thought he might even finish Diego after seeing him breath heavy after only a couple of good body shots, but then he settled for fucking his face up for 15 minutes, which servers for good entertainment as well. Diego is nuts though, know its a real cliche thing to say and all but even though he likes to fight really stupid at times he is a true warrior, hope he don’t fuck what is left of his head up too bad before calling it quits.

I think K-1 Gonzaga is back for good, don’t think he’ll be going for too many submissions after two straight knockout wins…

great card great fights!

JDS put up a hell of a fight and landed some hard shots, but was clearly outclassed by Cain. As entertaining as it was to watch hopefully there will not be another rematch too soon because there is no doubt in my mind that Cain would dominate again. Looking forward to see Cain vs. Werdum.

DC should be interesting at LHW, I think he has a the potential to roll through the division enroute to a title fight, but who knows, LHW seems to be a bit deeper of a division, and maybe DC will be too slow at LHW? I doubt it, but maybe.