T Nation

UFC 127


#1

The conversation started at the end of the Strikeforce Heavyweight thread and it's about time that it got it's own thread.

The headliner is definitely exciting but there are at least a couple of other good fights, especially Sotiropoulos vs. Siver.

Predictions, comments, etc.


#2

I like Fitch in this fight and I actually don't think it's going to be that close. His stand up, while not spectacular is solid enough to not leave many openings for a ko from penn. He is strong and talented enough to clinch and take penn down, keep him there and do some damage.

I don't think enough for a TKO but I do not think it will just be a lay and pray fest. He will beat penn up a bit on the ground. I specifically see that happening in rounds 2,3 when the take downs will be easier due to a tiring penn. Round 1 maybe like GSP II round 1. Ultimately a mentally broken, physically dominated penn will lose a UD.


#3

I think the odds are in Fitch's favor (bigger/stronger, relentless pace, good chin, very mentally tough), but I wouldn't count Penn out yet. Not only has BJ been training with Floyd Mayweather Sr. for this fight (who has said how impressed he is with how good Penn's boxing has become), but he also trained with Hughes as well (which should theoretically mean his wrestling and conditioning has improved). We also know how difficult Penn can be to taken down (if the takedowns aren't set up perfectly ala GSP), at least when he's fresh.

If Fitch can't close the distance effectively (without getting tagged repeatedly on the way in) right from the get-go and force Penn to tire himself out defending takedowns/clinching, Penn may wind up racking up enough points on his feet to win a couple rounds. Heck, Penn might even knock Fitch down (GSP did several times during their fight, and Penn has heavier hands than Georges) and wind up TKO'ing him or even gaining a superior position (his back) and choking him out.

If Fitch can effectively close the distance and get Penn down early though, I think he'll probably win via decision.


#4

I just looked at the rest of the card and its kind of flooded with lower tier guys
whom I don't know yet.

I would love to say that this goes exactly like Penn Hughes 1

Zeb seems to want me to say that BJ Penn is going to beat John Fitch.

Sadly this is win win for BJ Penn
Beat Fitch - perhaps title shot no one wants to see.
Loose to Fitch , its Meh Fitch is a huge blanket.

Here is the deal.
when Penn cares he can give anyone more then they thought.

He brings Big power, a great chin, good hands , amazing TDD and great submissions
He also brings some really questionable heart, lack luster training and a history
of not caring. Even bringing in Hughes to play the role of Fitch for a few weeks,
his camp always gives me a WTF?

Fitch is Fitch- solid game plan of wearing you out and beating your ass.
and he is virtually un-subable he has intuitive sub defense and he is a great scrambler

But he is not a finisher, he lacks in punching power, but his timing is getting better.

I would love to say War Baby Jay so be it.
BJ turn me into a nuthugger.

WAR Penn.


#5

John Fitch is the second best Welterweight in the division. He's beaten Alves (twice), Thiago, Sanchez, Saunders, Pierce, Gono, Wilson and just about everyone that he's faced in MMA. With a fight record of 23-3 he has one of the best win/loss ratio's of any active fighter at that level. He's also a large Welterweight at 6'0. To think that BJ Penn (16-7-1) is going to move up from recently getting destroyed by Edgar, (twice), who is a small lightweight, and defeat Fitch is absolutely ludicrous!

Fitch has 3" in height, a much larger reach, greater stamina and will be relentless in his pursuit once the fight starts. Those who have follwed his career know that he is not an exciting fighter but he gets the job done. And that is what will be needed when he faces BJ Penn. I doubt this will be an eventful match but it will be one that is won by John Fitch. To think anything else is just wishful thinking.

While Penn is most definitely a talented fighter he has been perpetually hyped by Rogan and company since the day he set foot in the octagon. As you all know the UFC tends to do this with certain fighters, Michael Bisping being another example. Not that I am comparing Penn to Bisping skill wise, not at all.

The fact that he trained with Matt Hughes for four weeks won't play into the equation. Penn already has great takedown defense, I doubt Hughes added that much. If anything fighters always go back to what they know best when in pressure situations. As for the rest of what he may learn from Hughes in four weeks it won't be enough to make a difference.

Those who think Penn will win are in for a wake-up call early in the fight. My prediction is that John Fitch will win a unanamous decision, or perhaps maybe even a stoppage.

With all of that said keep in mind that I am on a three fight wrong call losing streak :slight_smile:


#6

all right now we are getting somewhere... :slight_smile:

I don't think Hughes taught allot to Penn...

other then being a bigger stronger wrestler type to play with for a few weeks
and actually I thought it was kind of nice that they could be respectful playmates.

I will play your foil :)))


#7

jake shields is the numba two WW imo

Fitch almost lost to Mike Pierce for christ's sake


#8

Fitch is vegan now, i hope he gets raped by BJ and i would never think i would say this one day but...

WAR BJ!


#9

Fitch on points. too big, too strong for BJ.


#10

And Brock Lesnar almost lost to Shane Carwin, so what? BJ Penn DID lose to Frank Edgar TWICE, neither fight being close. He lands one lucky punch on an aging former champ and he's now considered one of the better welterweights in the game?

Come on sardines you're smarter than that.

This is pure UFC hype. They wanted to capitalize on Penn's big knockout and they knew that there were enough diehard Penn fans to pull it off. This fight will be one sided for Fitch.


#11

You're a good foil and a good source of credible information in the combat section.

So that makes this really hard to say--Penn will lose my friend. The only question is how he loses. I lean toward unanimous decision because of Fitch's usual style of fighting. But it could be a stoppage.


#12

I'm already feeling sad about Fitch - Penn fight. There is just so very few ways for Penn to take this one home. Fitch is way bigger and stronger, has huge enough reach advantage over BJ to not get his ass knocked the fuck out standing and will eventually work it in the clinch and take BJ down. From there, if BJ manages to launch a sub you can be sure I'll wake up the whole fucking house yelling out loud for being so happy but I'm just having hard time seeing how is BJ going to take it. Fitch doesn't even have to pass his guard, its just the size and strength he has on BJ that is going to play a big enough factor to tire BJ out while Fitch rides away to a clean UD. Hope BJ will at least put up a good fight but I won't get my hopes up too much.

As for the rest of the card. I hope so dearly that Sotiropoulos is going to rip off some of Siver's limbs. Not cause I hate Siver, I think he is amusing fighter too but Sotiro has just worked his way here way too hard to lose it now and with a spectacular W here I think he'd be thrown right in the mix for the 1st contender spot, maybe against Guida - Pettis winner to face Maynard - Edgar winner.

Fisher - Pearson is another fight I'm itching to see, Pearson has been one of my biggest favorites ever since TUF9. Fisher ain't that great, neither is Pearson but I really love to watch his standup and he is still improving fast and every single time we see him he is a better fighter. Despite his loss against J-Lau I see Pearson taking this one hands down if not getting caught, he is just the better fighter. That being said, Fisher has the experience to capitalize on every chance Pearson is going to give him. Good slugfest comeing up never the less, definitely a strong FotN candidate.

Bisping - Rivera is probably going to be boring jab and run, hope the cunt can drag Riveras ass to the ground at some point and pound him out. Ain't really rooting for neither fighter, just hope somebody is going to go down early.


#13

dude you're a troll if you don't think edgar penn 1 wasn't close, do you even watch the fights or do you read about them the day after? lucky punch, gtfo, you make such idiotic comments, regardless of who wins or loses tonight it remains that your some super troll or former wwe fanboy


#14

Exactly. The Hughes fight was what the UFC wanted; a guy with a big name but diminished skills to get everyone believing again. I think BJ is superb at LW but at WW he's just middle of the pack.

He has a 2-3 record there and as only beaten 1 opponent at that weight (hughes).


#15

I'm not so sure he's all that super at LW either.


#16

Loops when I said tha t this card was full of mid tier fighters i was looking at the preliminary card.

I like George Soritopolis over Silver his stand upis slicker then it looks
I'm sure he will eventually get a sub
Bisping vs Riviera both have looked ok recently it's hard to get past the Hendo knockout
Should e a good fight,
I like Pearson he brings it but so does Spencer Fischer
So that is three good fights.

Sure i will lplay foil why not.
We all know you like a good lecture or argument.
But let's be reasonable.... Sure penn fucked up twice and had zero offense with Edgar
And he hast had any record wormy mentioning at 170 recently.

But let's also not forget the onside beat downs he has put on just about every one else at 155
Not named Edgar he mauled sherk and sent Sanchez back to yes cartwheel nirvana.


#17

I am picking GSP light/Fitch to beat Penn. I think Penn is amazing, I really do. He has a good jab (great by MMA standards), heavy hands, a great chin, does not cut (skin not weight), decent head movement (great by MMA standards), fantastic takedown defense, he is able to get his hips under him and stand up from the bottom, a good guard, and world class top control. If BJ used the various aspects of his game to set up one another he would be my pick, but Penn does not do that. Penn picks one aspect of his amazing skill set and either crushes his opponent, or gasses trying to jam a square peg in a round hole.

Against Edger he was successful the few times he used punches to set up takedowns or low kicks. Instead of running with that he went the route of just boxing, and got beat. He had 25 minutes to try something else. Add the fact he is always coming into a fight with a question mark next to his conditioning and I see Fitch smothering, frustrating, and dominating him. It may be boring to watch, but the lack of action will make Penn get over anxious and gas all the faster. Unlike Penn, we know Fitch will take the ugly win for certain over the highlight real win for maybe.


#18

Edgar just has the one perfect style/attribute for beating Penn at LW. He is very fast, and has what seems like an unlimited gas tank. He also executed his game plan perfectly, and for whatever reason Penn didn't seem to be able to adjust or stick to what did work for him in the second fight.

That said, I think that Penn would beat anyone else at LW. Styles make fights, and Edgar has Penn's number.

If I were going to bet on the Penn-Fitch fight, I'd put money on a UD in favor of Fitch. But I think it's foolish to completely count BJ out, or say that Fitch is going to finish him.


#19

I just watched the weigh-ins and gotta say one of my favorite videos is that of Bisping getting knocked out with the Bobby hat on his head and am literally praying that he gets the snot knocked out of him. I can't remember the last time I hated a fighter this much......maybe part of his marketing plan which if it is it's working!

As a former collegiate wrestler I am a huge Fitch fan and respect the hell out of a walk-on guy who became captain, so am real excited for this match-up although I do think BJ is someone who needs to be respected. If his boxing has improved that is a scary thought because his stand-up has always been a tough proposition for anyone.

All I know is I want Bisping to be spitting teeth when it's over.

I think Pearson/Fisher is a pretty solid match-up, one that I am excited for, and keeping with my theme would love for Fisher to send him packing.

I would love for he and Bisping to have a loooong flight home.


#20

In a five round fight it would be fitch by UD, in a 3 round fight, it all depends on how motivated bj is. I can see it going either way.