I’ve said if a “normal” Republican was in the White House right now 2020 would be game over. Dems would be running someone to run someone like Dole in 96.
Trump has everything on his side. Strong economy, no serious foreign policy quagmire, power of the incumbency. For his approvals to be this low with these conditions is crazy.
I don’t view any of this stuff right now as the single silver bullet that takes him down and he’s going to have a shot at a 2nd term, but he’s greatly decreased his chances for victory with his continuous unforced errors.
If the economy shows any signs of faltering before 2020 he has no chance. If it stays hot and the Dems run someone far left I think he has a pretty solid shot. If the Dems don’t do that I wouldn’t bet on him. I’m leaning against a win for him right now and a few months ago I would have been the other way.