T Nation

Trump: The Third Year


#663

Statistically it’s not common for the incumbent to lose his reelection.

Obviously that stat is useless in a vacuum, but iirc it’s a very strong correlation.


#664

You’re talking to a true believer. See:


#665

I think it’s possibly (very very unlikely) that he doesn’t finish out his term. IF the Russia thing were to go monumentally South and he needed to pull a Nixon he would need to do so prior to leaving office.

I don’t think it’ll happen, fwiw.


#666

I’m with @pfury on this one.

Even though I think that it is highly unlikely that Trump did not know…or did not authorize…his Minions to let the Russians know (directly or indirectly) to “Go for it”…I still think that he is smart enough to have kept himself isolated from direct involvement.

(…and @pfury…this is also just a “feeling”…!)


#667

I think it’s not super unlikely he got his hands dirty personally. That being said, Republicans have a MASSIVE power advantage over Dems in nearly every govt sector, so I don’t think he got his hands dirty enough that they can’t clean it up to save the party.

Isawwotyoudidthar :wink:


#668

Honest question with partisan blinders off… from a stone cold strategy standpoint, would throwing Trump under the bus save “the party”? Would normal establishment Republicans take the reigns back afterward and rebuild? Interesting thought experiment if nothing else.


#669

Good question, @Basement_Gainz.

I think Trump currently represents the “Soul?” (too strong?) of the GOP…and I don’t think there is any going back. If you are a Republican who wants reelection…you will not throw Trump under the Bus. You may pull a Mitch McConnell and say nothing…but you certainly will not be celebrating Trump’s demise.


#670

I think it’d save ‘the party’ in the sense the GOP gets to keep being about what it used to.

That being said, there’s not a doubt in my mind the GOP would fragment into 2 parties and lead to a Dem dominance for decades.

I think GOP leaders recognize this and are trying to wait Trump out, hoping he doesn’t mold the party too much in the process


#671

Since WWII, only 3 sitting presidents have sought a 2nd term and lost. The pool of Dem candidates is weak and the Starbucks guy, if he runs, is pose to Rose Perot the Dem nominee. If I was Trump, I’d be laughing my ass off right now.

Been hearing this for a while now…


#672

Yep…!


#673

Some of what he’s done I can get on board with. Originalist SCOTUS/lower court picks, deregulation (report came out today blue collar jobs are growing faster than white collar), arresting Chinese IP thieves, sex trafficking crackdown, withdrawing from the 18 year never ending war in the ME (could do it better)… etc

Some of those are traditional Republican platform ideals. The seismic shift I’m seeing is that the richest counties in the nation are all Democrat now. Republicans are picking up the working poor… strange times.


#674

Trump’s probably closer to “traditional Republican” than anyone that’s received the presidential nomination for many years.


#675

It’s because they’ve moved away from anything/everything fiscally conservative and picked up populism.

I still attribute the insane GOP majority at nearly every level for decades due to how well they can incite fear of the opposition IRT voter turnout. Despite how much evidence exists to the contrary. Fear is nothing if not popular these days.


#676

Correct. The true myth of politics is that any fiscally robust candidate is actually electable.

I’ve been waiting for that unicorn all voting life. It. Just. Ain’t. There.


#677

Case in point. The Tories were elected on a fiscally tough manifesto in 2010. Every spending cut caused a massive drop in popularity.

They’ve silently abandoned it without admitting as such. The bill will come due eventually, but politicians only care about who is holding it when it does.


#678

Lol at least you saw spending cuts. The GOP is currently burning cash at a rate that even gives Bernie a pause


#679

Oh, we didn’t in real terms. Debt is higher now than when they took office. We had the conversation changed to ‘deficit reduction’ rather than debt.

They didn’t touch the debt.

https://www.economicshelp.org/wp-content/uploads/2011/11/households-government.png


#680

Every country is loaded to the brim with government AND private debt. We’re all going down.

When the next crash comes we have no levers left to pull. More fool Trump for taking credit for this bull run. He’ll be crucified when the music stops.


#681

Didn’t they have crazy London riots at that point over “austerity”. I made some good money shipping baseball bats, cricket bats and “tire checkers” to UK residents at the time. They were quite popular for a few months there.


#682

Correct. ‘Austerity’ is still the rallying cry of the UK left long after, so called, spending cuts have relaxed.