Trump: The First Year

Fuck permits. Seriously. You know who issues permits? The government.

I would call Israel first world. Their fence has sonar to detect tunnels. And lots of fun gizmos.

The wall is an unimaginably large CF from a permitting, engineering, and construction standpoint. The more you learn/think about the project, the more infeasible it becomes.

We would need to suspend all regulatory oversight, landrights, and permitting, then contract the work on a T&M basis to ensure contractors don’t cut corners, utturly decimate the construction industry for a hundred+miles around the wall by taking all the materials, and then threaten a war with Mexico by strongarming away land and resources in disputed border areas.

I surely don’t have a solution to securing our southern border. But I do know Trump’s grand campaign wall is stupidly unrealistic.

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Double layer chain link fence 50 feet apart.
Land mines in between.
Razor wire.
Move on to next problem.

Well, I’m in the industry so I have to concur with everything stated above.

There’s so much insanity here I cannot even list it all, just one issue that was omitted above - access roads. You’d have to build hundreds and hundreds of miles of access and maintenance roads able to withstand heavy construction traffic.

Also, taking into account the sheer scale I guess you’d have a shortage of manpower and materiel for regular non-insane construction work that would push construction costs up in the SW.

After all, which company wouldn’t want a massive government contract?

Have you been to Israel? Have you seen their wal…I mean barrier and its order of magnitude?

Land mines? Are you serious? I presume you’re thinking about anti-personnel mines and you’d like to cover the entire length of the border? Do some simple math and see how much mines you’d need.

Not to mention that would put the US into the fine company of North Korea and former East Germany in terms of mining its borders.

Also.

http://edition.cnn.com/2014/06/27/us/u-s-landmines/index.html

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Just these would probably take care of illegal immigration problems:

No federal benefits for illegal aliens and/or their children.

No citizenship for children of illegal aliens; unless the child is born in America, given up for adoption when his parents are deported, and adopted by citizens.

(I would prefer that immigration be left completely up to the states, and the federal government be scaled back to 18th Century-size…but that’s not happening anytime soon)

You don’t think better wages, less crime, school, and a MUCH better situation to raise a family has much to do with illegal immigration?

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The whole border fence argument depends on how harmful you feel that cartel drugs, crime and human trafficking are. While illegal immigrants disrupt labor markets and use public services, they are the smallest problem with open borders.

Mexico is a narco state with no rule of law (thanks to drug prohibition). Insulating ourselves from them can’t hurt.

Are clearly marked landmines along a border fence any more immoral than razor wire? If in the process of feloniously crossing an international border you hop on razor wire and get maimed or killed I have no sympathy for you.

Schools: Public Education for Immigrant Students: Understanding Plyler v. Doe | American Immigration Council , unless the school is private.

If they come here for the other reasons, there is no problem caused.

You can’t insulate yourself from Mexico because of the whole “very long land border” thing, especially from people bent on nefarious activity. “Clearly marked landmines” wouldn’t deter the cartels.

Rampant smuggling occurs even on the China-North Korea border and the North Koreans know a thing or two about insulating oneself.

You want safer borders? Make Mexico great. The better the situation in Mexico is, less Mexicans will want to emigrate to the US. GDP growth also reduces fertility rates thereby affecting the population pyramid reducing the number of single young males making the first (illegal) crossing into the country.

Also, you’d make Mexico more attractive to immigrants from Central/South America due to the shared language.

When two countries with a significant difference in GDP share a border, a whole industry of seediness springs up (cough Tijuana cough) on the lesser developed side with corresponding high rates of violence. This is true not only for country borders but for gated communities as well - as soon as a gated community is built, crime rates outside of the community spike.

Once again - make Mexico great and help them address the woeful security problem - after all, increased cartel violence is related to lower profit margins from illegal drug sales. There’s less money to go around.

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I’m 100% down TBH. Not specifically on the wall, because the cost and scope alone seem way too expensive, but some form of public service like that.

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So we not only try to rebuild the middle east in our own image, subsidize Europe’s defense… etc.

Now we have to make Mexico not a shit hole?

Talk about world police. While that may be effective. I don’t think it can be done.

As I watch and listen to Trump more and more…the more I realize just how much he draws from the “Demagogue Playbook”…keep the followers energized…keep them angry…and keep it all about “us” vs “them”.

And quite frankly…the man is a Master.

The other thing about Trumps’s “base” numbers. As with the election; I think the polls are still not recognizing or reflecting that “silent minority” of voters that are behind Trump as much as the true “Trumpsters”. I honestly think that the only difference in the two groups is that for the “silent minority”…Trump may make them “uncomfortable”…and you will never see them sporting a “MAGA” hat…but they will press that Voting screen for him without hesitation.

I think these Polls are getting it wrong…again.

What makes you think that? Has Trump’s blunders not been enough thus far to make you think many people that voted “Against HRC” (not for Trump) are fed up with him?

No more that just this “gut” feeling, pfury.

Demagogues eventually self-destruct…but not before they wreak a lot of chaos and havoc.

Also…what alternative are “closet” Trump supporters seeing…Schumer and Pelosi?

You may as well have a special election and give Trump a second Term now.

Trump has threatened a Government Shutdown if he doesn’t get the funding for “The Wall”.

My question is two fold:

  1. CAN he do it?

  2. WILL he do it?

That’s the thing though, Mufasa: the polls weren’t wrong. The state polls in those three crucial swing states (PA, MI & WI) missed their mark, but the national polls were pretty much spot on. And the approval polls that are in the news weekly are national polls.

They don’t need a dem alternative to vote for, they just need not to vote. As recent polls show, while Trump’s approval among republicans is still in the 70% range, it’s taken a huge hit recently. The enthusiasm has waned considerably. As I’ve said before, I won’t make a prediction on 2020 as it is too far off, but a lot of people that voted for him last time just might not show up.

And he has a rock-solid base probably somewhere in the mid-20s that won’t bail him for any reason. If his approval falls much further, though, I think you’ll see the GOP start to abandon ship pretty quickly.

Even the most inward looking country in the world would want stable and prosperous neighbors if for nothing else than to act as buffer states.

Chaos has a tendency to spill over whether it’s Mexican gangs in Texas, Russian mobsters in Norway or Chinese people smugglers in Russia proper.

Think how much Canada being well, Canada contributed to the economic and political wellbeing of the US.

Imagine what would have been if you had, let’s say 1990s Russia up north and the challenges of building the Great Northern Wall ™

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You’re not seeing past the basic strategy. Republicans had YEARS to work on tearing down HRC, and she still came out with a pretty gross popular vote win. Why would anyone that’s a serious contender for POTUS in 2020 start the murmurs of it now and give Trump 3 years to tweet about their mistakes?

The GOP is effective with their strategies, but they’re not creative. Pick a topic. Latch on. Beat dead horse until redead. If they don’t have time to prepare for a candidate, the smear campaign isn’t nearly as effective.

I would also take relative silence amongst high ranking Dems to be a good thing. For one, it means they’re focused on the issue at hand and don’t want to be seen “campaigning” in the same way Trump already has started to. Second, it means (to me) we have a lower chance of seeing a longtime establishment Dem run, which I believe is a great idea.

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The democrats would LOVE for this to happen. They have no incentive to cave.

Haha now we’re at two options. Shut down (it requires 60 votes, no democrat will vote for that), or he is shown to be bluffing again. Either looks bad for him, but then again I don’t know how to play 4D chess.

Serious question. Has Trump been found to not be bluffing yet? I’m trying to remember a situation where he made a threat and it wasn’t a bluff.

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