Haven’t posted in a long time…
Just curious how the Canadians on this board are planning to vote in the federal election (which despite what anyone says has basically already begun).
Also, has your party allegiance changed since last year’s election?
Interesting article on Canadian Politics. What do you Canadians think?
The Next Failed State
by Austin Bay
April 27, 2005
A political specter haunts North America – the specter of the world’s next failed state.
We can still call it Canada, at least for a couple years. And who knows, like news of Mark Twain’s demise, my cheeky pessimism may be greatly exaggerated. Our northern neighbor’s polyglot populace of beer drinkers, peaceniks, Mounties and socialists may yet dump their crooked politicians and craft a new, more robust deal with Quebecois separatists.
If you don’t know about Canada’s crooked politicians, you’re not alone. Democracy and free speech are breaking out in Beirut, but they’re both taking a beating in Ontario. The Canadian government has a press clamp on an investigation into the ruling Liberal Party’s “Adscam” kickback scheme. A “judicial publication ban” is the term. It may soon rank with the Watergate rhetoric like “modified limited hang-out.” Canadian Prime Minister and Liberal Party leader Paul Martin is implicated in the Adscam fiasco, and he’s starting to look like the northland’s Richard Nixon.
In the Internet Age, clamps and bans crack quickly, and the Liberals have seen their popular support go poof. A U.S. Web site (www.captainsquartersblog.com), run by Minnesotan Ed Morrissey, started posting leaked statements from the judicial hearings. The Web site instantly became Radio Free Canada and Deep Throat combined, with hundreds of thousands of Canadians going online to read the damning evidence. Now Canadian newspapers are on the story, but it’s another case of major media following the Internet’s lead. On his Web site, Morrisey sums up Canada’s Adscam as “… transfers of cash to the Liberal Party as part of the money-laundering effort …”
Linda Seebach of the Rocky Mountain News, in a column about Morrissey’s coda of Watergate’s Woodward and Bernstein, observed that there’s “hardly any coverage of what the Canadians call ‘AdScam’ in the U.S. press, although something that could cause the Canadian government to fall ought to be of interest to that country’s southern neighbor …”
But “federal” Canada remains an iffy proposition, and becomes iffier as the separatist Parti Quebcois (PQ) gains political clout at the expense of the corrupt Liberals.
Bewitched by a Never Land notion of a francophone French Quebec freed from the yoke of “English-speaking” Canada, the PQ radicals regard themselves as culturally unique, prime ethnic candidates for their own nation state and United Nations seat. It’s not a new concept. Charles De Gaulle, in a 1967 act of French unilateralism, gave Canadians the jitters when he quipped, “Vive Quebec libre.”
What happens to Canada if Quebec secedes? Canadians are once again pondering this question – live on the CBC – and given Canada’s status as America’s number one trading partner and continental neighbor, U.S. citizens should consider the ramifications.
Canadians in the western and maritime provinces already dread the political power of populous Ontario. (Quebec serves as a political balance to Ontario.) If Quebec bids adieu, “remnant” Canada’s political rules will be subject to revision. Subsequent regional bickering could lead to further fragmentation.
What might a grand Canadian breakup look like? Jim Dunnigan and I, in the 1991 edition of “A Quick and Dirty Guide to War,” played speculative cartographer and redrew Canada’s political map.
Here’s a thumbnail sketch of that analysis: Say Quebec does become a separate European-style nation-state – a “people” with cultural, linguistic, religious and historical identity (never mind the objections of Mohawk and Cree Indians living in Quebec). Quebec has the people and resources to make a go of it, though the economic price for its egotism will be stiff. British Columbia also has “nation-state” assets: Access to the sea, strong industrial base, raw materials and an educated population.
Oil-producing Alberta might join the United States and instantly find common political ground with Alaska, Louisiana, Texas and Oklahoma. Canada’s struggling Atlantic provinces might find statehood economically attractive and extend the New England coastline. A rump Canada consisting of “Greater Ontario” – with remaining provinces as appendages – might keep the maple-leaf flag aloft. As for poor, isolated Newfoundland: Would Great Britain like to reacquire a North American colony?
Bahahahaha. Austin Bay is a twit.
Hey there JPBear, have you been hiding under a rock?
To answer your question, I find it hard to divorce myself from my opinions. By this I mean that while the leadership might be unable to find their asses with both hands, they are at least bumbling along under the pretense of aspiring to achieve their idealogical goals or platform agendas.
I’m also not too concerned about money being funnelled into Quebec or that some pockets got padded. I’d be surprised if there was a country on the planet that didn’t have this occur in government. I’m not pleased by it, but it isn’t the end of the world as Austin would have us believe.
If the liberals get wiped out of the next government due to this, where is the power going to concentrate, and will it really be a reflection of the will of the people? The winner will certainly take it as such regardless.
Anyway, good to see ya back on the boards.
I don’t have a dog in this race.
Why do you find Austin bay a twit?
Here is his C.V. Doesn’t sound twitty?
Austin Bay writes both novels and non-fiction. Bay’s A Quick and Dirty Guide to War: Third Edition (an assessment of current and potential armed conflicts, co-authored with James Dunnigan) was published in August 1996 by William Morrow. His third novel, The Wrong Side of Brightness, was published by Putnam/Jove in 2003. Austin is currently working on his fourth novel.
Bay writes a national security column for Creators Syndicate. His commentaries run on National Public Radio’s Morning Edition. He has appeared as a guest analyst on CNN,
C-SPAN, and ABC News Nightline.
Bay, who has had two commercial wargames published, served for four years as a consultant in wargaming at the Pentagon. He holds the rank of Colonel (Armor) in the U.S. Army Reserve. In 1999 Bay served as deputy commander of a Hurricane Mitch recovery operation in Guatemala.
Bay is now retired from the US Army Reserve, but was recalled to active duty and served in Iraq in 2004. For this tour of duty in Iraq, he was awarded the Bronze Star for meritorious service.
Bay has a B.A. from Rice University and a Ph.D. in English and Comparative Literature from Columbia University. He is a graduate of the U.S. Army War College. He currently teaches for The University of Texas’ Plan II Undergraduate Honors Program.
heres another canuck,
the problem i see is that the liberals have had power for too long, any party if unriveled is hardly going to be accountable (power corrupts, absolute power corrupts absolutely); the reason why the liberals are the great political hegemone is two fold, voter apathy and failure of a respectable opposition.
As an example, my roommate once said he voted liberal because “better the devil you know than the devil ya dont” well unfortunately that kinda defeats the purpose of democracy doesnt it? what kind of ignorant shit is that! Moreover area code 905 with its dense population more or less controls the county, thus if they continue to vote knee-jerk liberal we can watch countless billions of dollars go to kickbacks and slush funds and golf courses and to keep bombardier in business.
About the opposition, while being albertan im notably biased (arent we all) towards the conservatives, i vote conservative and will continue to, but god they piss me off. They fight battles they cant win (abortion, same sex marriage) and they dont nail the liberals when they have a chance, if they want to become respectable they need to tone down the rhetoric and concentrate on their forte; lower taxes, smaller bureaucracy etc. Im mean c’mon they put “its the stupid constitution” on pins and handed them out at their convention, they should be tied and quartered for that kind of stupidity!
As for the NDP well they are just too far left, i mean if you really like the NDP just move to one of the scandinavian nations and they will happily take 60 percent of your wages and you can be content knowing if you lose your job, you will be easily supported by the massive social net.
Just as a side bar those who argue that the liberals are principled party who follow their ideologies --please dont piss in my ear and tell me its raining. All they do is buy votes and fill the massive hole in center-left politics that, coincidently the majority of canadians prescribe to. they will do ANYTHING to get elected. Understand they are consumate professionals, and no they dont give a fuck about you, no politician does. that is why to keep governments accountable they have to know that when they fuck up, (or get caught) there will be hell to pay. Unfortunately thats not the canadian way.
Hey JP!
Hedo, I won?t go so far as saying Austin Bay is a twit, but I will say that he is an author, and an author’s job is to entertain. Saying Canada is on the verge of collapse as we head into an election is like saying the difference between dems and repubs is going to tear the US apart. Just not true, but makes for a more interesting read.
As for the election, I’m voting the same I did last election, conservative. And I have to agree with everything J.Boogie had to say, the conservatives just can’t seem to get it together up here.
As for the sponsorship scandal, I don’t believe Paul Martin had anything to do with it and I have to give him props for getting the inquiry (but I bet he wouldn’t do it again, and I think that is concerning). But the corruption is starting to smell all the way over here in Alberta, and I don’t think firing a few people is the answer. I want to see changes in our political system such that:
All parties books are open to the public, far as I know we as Canadians can not see where our political parties are getting their cash or where it’s going. This just gives an open slate for abuse like the sponsorship scandal.
Patronization has to stop, this idea that it’s ok to give your buddies or supporters high paying public servant positions in exchange for scratching your back - bullshit. It’s no way to run a business and certainly no way to run a country (is it really in my best interest to have people involved in the sponsorship scandal appointed to the queen’s bench? - seems like the kind of thing I’d reward with a jail sentence).
Senate reform (hey, least the conservatives have something to say about this). Reason? See above point.
Personally, I’d like to gather up all the politicians in this country in a big net, and drop them in the ocean. Excessive? Yes. Effective? Yes.
(Note: No politicians were actually rounded up in a net and dropped in the ocean for the purposes of this post)
(Edited cause apparently I don’t know how to cut and paste from word)
I heart JPBear.
Hedo, perhaps he should stick to writing about things that he knows about?
Unless the above was simply an attempt at humor, it was pretty far off the mark.
The sad thing is that Paul Martin spent more time talking to the NDP to form an alliance, in exchange for funding, than he did to the Canadian people and informing them of what happened. What else is new??
Should an election be called, it will once again fall in the hands of how Ontario and Quebec vote. Hence, a large indifference out west regarding this scandal, not to mention a BC provincial election just warming up…
The big question is this? What do Canadians have to gain by a new election? Sure, its the democratic process, but will power change hands to a significant degree? not likely. How many millions of taxpayer dollars will be spent? too many. And finally how will this new election change the issues that you voted to support last year? Better, worse or no change at all?
I will vote should it come to that, but I will spend less time wondering about who to vote for than I will wondering WHY I’m back in the voting polls…
Did you catch the second paragraph? “We can still call it Canada, at least for a couple years. And who knows, like news of Mark Twain’s demise, my cheeky pessimism may be greatly exaggerated. Our northern neighbor’s polyglot populace of beer drinkers, peaceniks, Mounties and socialists may yet dump their crooked politicians and craft a new, more robust deal with Quebecois separatists.”
It’s meant to be “cheeky”.
[quote]Cream wrote:
Did you catch the second paragraph? “We can still call it Canada, at least for a couple years. And who knows, like news of Mark Twain’s demise, my cheeky pessimism may be greatly exaggerated. Our northern neighbor’s polyglot populace of beer drinkers, peaceniks, Mounties and socialists may yet dump their crooked politicians and craft a new, more robust deal with Quebecois separatists.”
It’s meant to be “cheeky”.
[/quote]
Thank you Cream!
Although Austin Bay is a strategist by nature and a colleague of James Dunnigan, an even better known strategist. This article was written to be hunmorous. Kind of taking things to the extreme.
But you never know…
So I’ve been watching the news of the most recent “shocking testimony” at the Gomery Inquiry. Although I wish I could say that the Liberals have my die hard support, I just think that Paul Martin is playing the political game a little too well, and I fear that perhaps Canadians assume he is admitting guilt and involvement in the Sponsorship Scandal by making these desperate alliances.
I hate to say it, but when faced with the options of the Conservatives, Liberals or a wated vote i’d lean to the Liberals. It’s quite clear that the result of the next election will be a split vote between the NDP and Liberals, and the result? Another minority government, formed by right of centre crooks, with a vermy strong right agenda, as opposed to centre crooks with a left agenda. All these directions, yet no where to turn.
Of course I disagree with the article that was posted. I realize the whole freedom of speech thing, but it seems clear that he’s not exactly the most well-versed individual on Canadian poltics. Calling a publication ban something to the effect of an infringement of the freedom of speech is a bit much. If you check out the news, the reason for the publication bands is in order to prevent the testimony and the media from interferring in the criminal trials of the men testifying at the Inquiry. Besides, Gomery lifts those bands as soon as he applies it…so that point has little validity.
I dunno. The candidate in my riding here is Conservative and virtually uncontested. I’m not happy about it, but our government will spend another few billion dollars on this new election, and to finish the Gomery Inquiry, so in effect we’ve doubled the cost of the Spnsorship Scandal. Steven Harper and Giles Duceppe are simply taking advantage of a bad situation and claim that they’re protecting the Canadian people. From what I ask? As far as I can tell, unless I’ve missed something, no one from the current Liberal Caucus has committed any wrong, and until the guilt of the PM is proved this current government (the one that STARTED the Gomery Inquiry) hasn’t committed any acts against the people of Canada.
Maybe us, the population of Saskatchewan, just have a bitter taste in our mouths. Last time there was a goverrning Conservative type party they frauded us out of millions and sent the province into a reeling debt. I think that’s beaten us, or at least me, out of votng for any Conservative government, regardless of who heads it.
Sadly, I’ll probably have to wait until the next election to vote, being that I dont turn 18 until late in June. Nevertheless, I’ll be out there rooting for the Liberals. Or maybe I’ll have to lean towards the Green Party…
I love Albertans; they are a shining light in a thoroughly backwards country.
I find it seriously irritating that people actually bought this whole line from Martin that he was the one who called the enquiry because he was outraged at the scandal. Give me a break. Paul Martin quickly went to an election, hoping to form a majority government before the scandal broke wide open, and only called the Gomery inquiry after being asked to 23 times by the opposition parties. He didn’t win his majority and now he is screwed. To anyone that believes the finance minister of the party and the right hand man of Jean Chretien had no idea he was completely surrounded by corruption should pull their head out of their ass. If you take the time to look at what is coming out of the enquiry I think it is pretty clear that only Martin’s lies are saving him right now.
maninblack - I was going to respond to your fears about the Conservative party, until I read that you are 17, from Saskatchewan, and thinking of voting Green. That’s when I thought, why bother?
But, for the sake of the many Canadians who seem to be confused about this: The Conservative party is not the Progressive Conservative Party, and it has no ties to any provincial Progressive Conservative Party. They are not responsible for Brian Mulroney or any past PC government. They have never formed government, just the Official Opposition. (On the other hand, if you want to accuse them of being the Canadian Alliance Party, or the Reform Party, that wouldn’t bug me as much. It would be technically incorrect, but not as far off as the first statement)
I believe in the Conservative Party through and through. I have belonged to and done work for the party since the days of Reform, shared in all its ups and downs, and have complete faith in the people and the policies behind it. It is still a populist movement with deeply entrenched respect for true democracy and fiscal accountability. The House Leader, second in command to Stephen Harper, is a personal friend of mine whom I have known for many years and who has my complete and utter trust and respect. I even know one of the original eight members of the party, one of a group of people who took out second mortgages on their homes and invested all of themselves into the dream of a responsible, democratic government in Canada. I hope that Canadians will give this party a chance. I guarantee you they will restore faith in federal politics and move our country forward.
About the question of Parliamentary logistics, here is my present theory. If current polls hold, the Conservatives will likely form a minority government with a Block opposition. This to me seems like a government that will be able to survive. The Block obviously has no interest in forming government. So they would have no political interest in toppling the government. I am no expert on Quebec, but I hope to think that there would be a way to keep them happy without having to look at succession. I?m not thinking about throwing money at the problem, or creating programs, but decentralizing the power in Ottawa and allowing each province more control over their own affairs. Ottawa at present is a power hungry, pilfering monstrosity. This is my theory anyway; I would be interested to hear how someone from Quebec would respond to that.
[quote]rainjack wrote:
I heart JPBear. [/quote]
Awww, thanks Rainjack!
Hey JPBear! How is it going? If I remember correctly arn’t you expecting fairly soon? Best of luck to you!
Living in the biggest 905 city, Mississauga, I’ve noted an interesting phenomenon about how Ontario votes. For about 7-8 years 905 was scarringly consistent>during federal elections everybody would have their liberal signs out, then come provincial elections those SAME HOUSES would have their conservative signs out. In 88 Ontario voted Mulroney as PM and voted Bob Rae as premier in 90. We voted Chretien in 93’ than Harris in 95’. When Paul Martin got voted in this was the first time in nearly 15 years that Ontario voted for the same provincial and federal party, even then we voted Paul Martin on shaky ground.
Green party all the way.
[quote]analog_kid wrote:
Hey JPBear! How is it going? If I remember correctly arn’t you expecting fairly soon? Best of luck to you!
[/quote]
Yes I am! I am almost 6 months along with our little baby boy. It’s pretty exciting since this is our first.
[quote]JPBear wrote:
About the question of Parliamentary logistics, here is my present theory. If current polls hold, the Conservatives will likely form a minority government with a Block opposition.[/quote]
If current polls hold, the Bloc will get the most seats it ever had. Up to 65 according to some estimates.
Mathematically, it’s pretty near impossible for the block to form a minority government. They couldn’t last a day…
Gilles Duceppe has been pretty even-keeled in his decisions since he became the Bloc’s leader. My guess is he’d continue opposing anything that goes against the interests of Quebec. The conservatives would have to curtail any unpopular decisions to accomodate the Bloc or risk being toppled themselves.
My preference would be for Harper to get a slight majority government.
Maybe. Luckily for you, we seem to be a nation of cowardly idiots who can’t find the balls to vote to get their own country when it’s offered to them on a fucking ballot. We vote massively for the Bloc, since that has little consequences; but when the time comes to vote when it counts… well, somehow people aren’t so sure. Moronic sissies.
That’s part of the problem right there. A pattern that has been developing these past years is that when Ottawa and Quebec both claim jurisdiction over some domain (education or health care, etc.) Ottawa will refrain from paying out their share unless they can get their policies accepted in Quebec. Basically they’re saying “you’ll play by our rules, or you’re not getting your money.”
The people are getting sick and tired of paying high taxes (Quebec pays the highest taxes on the American Continent) and then hearing that some transfer payment is being held back at the federal level because of some political feuds.
Add to that the large surpluses Ottawa has been accummulating for some years now; various scandals (like the current Gomery commission); programs that should be there to help people being turned into cash cows by changing the rules (Assurance Emploi… the english term evades me.) etc.
[quote]Ottawa at present is a power hungry, pilfering monstrosity. This is my theory anyway; I would be interested to hear how someone from Quebec would respond to that.
[/quote]
Hopefully, Ottawa is also a soon to be located in a neighboring nation.
I guess I should mention that I am from Quebec.
[quote]JPBear wrote:
maninblack - I was going to respond to your fears about the Conservative party, until I read that you are 17, from Saskatchewan, and thinking of voting Green. That’s when I thought, why bother?
[/quote]
Yeah, I apoligize for my sarcasm, I’m still a card carrying member of the Federal Liberal Party.
Although I realize that the Conservative Party has no ties to the PC Party, I think that Canadians, mostly people from Ontario, are somewhat wary of the name Conservative. It doesn’t matter the origins of the party, or the number of members who werre formely Reformers or PC hard-liners. The fact remains, the populous sees that name Conservative and they start to worry.
I mean Steven Harper should have had a run away election last time around, what with the one of the largest scandals since the Pacific Railway Scandal back in 1860’s when MacDonald was still PM. The Liberal Party virtually handed him the ability to form a majority, and somehow he squandered it with the Conservative’s hard lining social policies.
I will forever maintain that a Conservative Government could very well be a backward step, socially, for all Canadians. We would reverse a number of our current policies, and destroy some of the few bright spots that this years Federal budget brought. Though, I will concede, that I haven’t brushed up on Conservative Policy since their last convention. JPBear…possibly you could educate us? You seem to be very well versed on the interal working of the Conservative Party.
I think that it is very possible for the Conservatives to form a minority government, but I doubt that the Bloc would form a coalition. Theoretically, the Bloc would be pushing the Seperatist movement in Quebec, and that would lead to some difference of opinions between the Conservative and Bloc, unless the Conservatives didn’t actually care about Quebec…
And finally, on the topic that Paul Martin had to have known that the Sponsorship Scandal was happening since he was Finance Minister afterr all…I’m not totally convinced.
It isn’t like Jean and Paul got along verry well. We all remember the bad blood when Jean kicked Paul out of Caucus and then the warning message Jean issued to Liberal members when Paul Martin took over as leader of the party. I tend to beleive that sometimes, once in our lives, we might actually have to trust a politician. I know it sounds crazy…but in orderr to maintain unity and serenity in this country, we might have to try it.