I’ve had XM coming up on four years now and I love it. No complaints. I don’t get the attraction of Howard though…I mean I’m a fan of his, I’ve read his books, he just gets old real fast. I’ve also heard that because Sirius is paying Howard so damn much money, they’re in danger of being out of business in the next two to three years. I’m thinking that XM and Sirius will eventually merge into one.
Where do you get your facts? Sirius will be buying XM just before they go bankrupt. Sirius has 70% of the market now.
Where do you get your facts? Sirius has 4.7 million, a number that XM had September of last year. Currently, XM has around 7.
70% of all new Satellite subscribers are for Sirius. Sirius only had 600,000 a year a go and now they have 4.7 million? 4 million new listeners at $13 amonth is 52 million a month and 624 million a year. Which more than pays his 5 year salary of 500 million.
70% of all Satellite subs from the 2nd quarter 2006 signed up for Sirius. You are talking about market share my friend.
Sirius - 4.7 million subs
XM - 7 million subs
Therefore, XM has almost 60% of the market.
Howard has claimed that 58% of audience went to Sirius with him, that would make 6 million subs. It simply is not true. Sirius has come out previously and said that they need 3 million of Stern’s listeners to make the move to Sirius to break even.
At the time of Stern’s announcement Sirius had 900,000 subs and currently has 4.5 million. If all of those people that signed up are Stern fans, Sirius made one hell of a gamble and it paid off. But, you aren’t going to convince me that that is the case.
If you expect that kind of growth to happen on a quarter by quarter basis for the long term you are out of your mind.
I am saying this because in a previous life I was an analyst, and have been watching the Satellite radio market with baited breath. Truth be told, both companies are dogshit, and I would not put a dime of my money in either investment wise (other than when I bought puts on Sirius when it was up to 13 and made a killing).
Both companies have many hurdles to overcome, and the chance of them merging is slim-to-none given Federal Antitrust laws.