The Stupid Thread 2 (Part 1)

If it makes you feel any better, when I stick my finger to the wind over here in Mass, it doesn’t seem like the wind is shifting away from her - I still predict she’ll win in November …

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That seat is as safe as any. This debacle has certainly has given Diehl’s oppo team some good material, so stay tuned for that I guess.

I think she’s mishandled this from the get-go, but I think it will be a nothingburger if she gets the nomination - what are the Trumpkins going to say? Lying in pursuit of personal gain is disqualifying for the presidency? They can’t do that with a straight face - and no on-the-fence voter will take that seriously.

She should have owned up to this years ago and said it was a mistake. Problem is, Harvard benefited from it as much as she did (if not more so), so there was no reason to press the case.

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Yeah. I think it will be way more important that she wants to seize 40% ownership of the top 100 companies and some other things that are rather far left.

I know we are diametrically opposed on that issue and not trying to restart the fruitless argument. Just pointing out there will be a lot more mileage attacking her on some of her “extreme” proposals than whether she pretended to be a minority 100 years ago.

It will come down to whether dems are mobilized enough. They likely don’t mind her ideas at all.

One point: You are assuming she’ll be running against Trump and will thus face “Trumpkins”. If the Dems flip the house in 2018 (which appears likely) they have something like 40 investigations they want to start immediately all ready to go. If Trump jaywalked 40 years ago, and they can prove it… he’s gone. He punched them in the mouth and they’re ready to return the favor with interest.

This is going to be Nancy Pelosi “Bush lied people died” rerun times a million.

You really think investigations would stop him from being the nominee? It sure as hell didn’t stop Hillary, and she had nowhere near the level of fanatical base Trump has.

I think trump paying off the pornstar was likely a campaign finance violation.

I think he did business with shady people at some point in the past 50 years.

Hillary did mishandle classified information, but nobody was willing to press charges. Do you think the establishment will show the same restraint with DJT?

They can press all the charges they want. The GOP still won’t have the balls to run someone against DJT because they know he’d scorched earth the entire party down with him.

That being said, if charges are pressed (doubtful), and Trump is convicted within the 2 years between the midterms and him running for re-election (hue), I could see someone try to white knight against him. They’d get utterly shit on, but damn it’d be cool.

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The Democrats won’t take a 2/3 majority in the Senate. An impeachment is meaningless unless it consists of a charge and evidence damning enough to get Senate Republicans to support it.

I suspect that a petty impeachment will hurt the Democrats more than the Republicans.

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Couldn’t disagree with this last part more. There’s no way to spin an impeachment into a positive or any sort of ‘more negative for the other guy’. Even Trump can’t spin that shit. Rest of it sounds correct to me.

The impeachment is not intended as a way for a party to simply get rid of a duly elected president for political reasons. If Pelosi pushes through an impeachment without a charge and evidence that seem to justify it, I think it will look bad. Trump thrives on taking on the establishment.

Everyone in the GOP has to know that to be the case. Any primary to Trump will go like the Hindenburg.

Who, knowing that, would even make the attempt? Flake? Kasich? Sasse?

They’d be blown to kingdom come. That saddens me vis a vis Sasse, as I like the chap.

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I agree with this. Clinton’s impeachment backfired hard, it wouldn’t be beyond the realms of possibility for any such Trump impeachment to follow a similar trajectory.

If they impeach without the goods to back it up, it will bite them, id stick money on it.

Which we already have from Trump’s Russia meeting, the Stormy payment, etcetc. I can’t imagine a world where Trump being impeached has a net loss to the Dems. And this is pre investigation.

If I was a Trump voter I sure as shit wouldn’t be more encouraged to go vote for an impeached incumbent. Nor would I be less likely as a ‘not Trump’ voter.

Trump IS the establishment. Rich and powerful, comes from money, laughs at the law, hasn’t spent a day of his life living like an average american.

I guess he hasn’t been an elected pol for decades, but he kinda ticks every other check box anyone can find

History would probably remember him as ‘just some dumbass’ if he were to ever exist

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Surely the GOP thought the same with Bill? Whitewater had a lot of smoke, but when push came to shove, they couldn’t back the worst charges up, and the public punished the GOP.

IIRC, his impeachment had literally nothing to do with Whitewater.

It didn’t. But we don’t know what charges would be leveled against Trump in any impeachment charges either.

You mean when they proceeded to win the next 2 presidential elections, control the vast majority of non federal governments, and spend 6 of the 8 Dem POTUS years gaining in power?

How so exactly? As I look around the world in the past 20 years, I see a distinct lack of the public punishing the GOP

9/11 can’t be ruled out as a major confounding factor here. That was a narrow win for POTUS.

Obama had a supermajority in the Senate and a large house majority.

The Iraq war also is a major confounder here.

EDIT: IIRC, opinion polls for Clinton improved during the impeachment proceedings? I will happily concede the point if that isn’t so.

Relevance irt public punishing the GOP?

So you’re saying impeachment hurt the GOP… 10 years later? And it lasted 2 years? I don’t even remember the impeachment being brought up in 2008.

I’d believe it’s true, but I’d question why it matters? An approval rating isn’t the public punishing the GOP. Democrats showing up to vote for not the GOP would (to me) constitute them being punished. And we know apart from 2008 at the federal level ONLY, that sure as hell didn’t happen