As I’ve stated before, polls have never held any charm for me. They are too unpredictable and are just a snapshot. You can detect very broad patterns, if they are consistent.
This week highlights this pattern. The LA times and CNN/Gallup has Bush beginning to show solid gains. I highlight these polls because I am very suspicious that they had the most Democratic-friendly interpretation possible.
I remember when George Senior began to gain serious ground on Dukakis. After that, Dukakis began to emit the smell of desperation and defeat. The same with Gore. Does anyone remember how hysterical he was in the third debate? He knew.
I want to take a stab at inviting my Democratic friends to take another look at George W. I see that in the La Times poll, W. is attracting some Democratic interest and support. Are there any on this board who traditionally vote Democratic who might be thinking about voting for W.? If I was a Democrat, I would be thinking real long and hard about the direction my party is taking. They’ve lost the White House, Senate, and House. They were destroyed in the 2002 midterm election. This was the second time in history that a Republican Administration picked up seats during a mid-term election. If I was a Democrat, I would send them a loud and clear message that they had better screen their candidates much more carefully before presenting them to the country. I submit that the cake-walk Kerry enjoyed during most of the primary season has hurt him badly.
I’m curious to hear your thoughts.
P.S. RSU, Lumpy, and DanH need not respond. I want to hear some non-fanatics.