T Nation

The Second Presidential Debate

You forgot smh, reality is Establishment. You need to get away from the Establishment, naturally you have to disclaim reality.

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Even the scientific polls are questionable, particularly when the person holding the focus group tells the group what to say.

Trump had a much better performance, he probably stopped the bleed and not much else.

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Hasn’t avowed butt pirate nate silver used scientific polling and data to make his predictions?

How has that gone?

Hmmm…
Wonder if @Dr_Pangloss can get the Betfair odds on this for us :flushed:

All polling is suspect, which is why

  • survey studies are the least worthy of any “scientific study” there is, and

  • the most reliable polling insights come from analysis of the aggregate (ala 538 and Nate Silver, or realclearpolitics), which at least partially offsets some biases inherent in individual polls.

Max you’re an intelligent guy, but you are giving him too much credit. I don’t believe he stopped the bleeding. I think he may have put a tourniquet on one wound, but he is bleeding from a dozen.

One thing to remember is that this tape scandal is just geting going. It still has legs to be used in media, ads, you name it…even without the rumoured upcoming n bomb video. The tapes haopened very shortly before the debate, and it usually takes a while to see the full fallout

This was was goal no 1 or it would be game over by end of the week. He achieved that.

Pretty well over the past 3 election cycles with the exception of Trump’s rise in the primaries. There was good reason to be skepticaluntil late in the primaries that he would be the nominee.

Unfortunately for you, his models of the general election are operating right on the nose.

The next few days will tell us more about what the voters think.

As far as the Trump tape, as bad as it is, if people think women don’t talk shit about men when they aren’t around, I have a bridge to sell you.

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Reposting from the other thread, just beacuse. Best one liner since Reagan?

I for one am voting for Trump now. So what if he starts a tariff war that leads to global recession, he made a funny.

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The media saturation was on the level of Michael Jackson dying.
There was barely any mention of a hurricane that has killed hundreds and destroyed $BB of property.

I’m guessing there are very few people in the US with electricity that are unaware.

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Whenever Hillary spoke about how much of a geopolitical threat Russia is, I thought of 2012 and that asshat Obama saying " The 1980’s called and they want their foreign policy back."

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If anyone has a right to be pissed about that, it would be Romney more than anyone else. I remember when Romney said it, people looked at him like he was cray cray.

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Ken Bone now trending hard on social media…
https://www.instagram.com/p/BLYnQEvgTXC/?tagged=kenbone&hl=en

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You’re probably right. I think personally that it tends to take a few more days after saturation for the full effect to set in, but regardless it has been everywhere no doubt

Most of the polling that constitutes good data takes 3, 4, 5 days to do, and therefore it takes that much time to offer a read on a particular event in the news. In the next few days we will have partial responses to the tape. By Friday we will have a clear picture with fully-post-tape polls.

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Actually, Silver’s predictions were on the mark - all the Trump-related wrong calls during the primaries came when he ignored his model data and let partisanship cloud his judgement.

I have some reservations about his switch to statistics-for-everybody results interpretation in this election cycle (if the probability of an event drastically changes during the time series you’re not modeling the event but noise) but his track record is good.

do you know how he did on Brexit?

a major recession is on its way regardless of who is elected.

edit:

We’re due a decline. How major it is will be impacted by policy. We’ve had this conversation before so moving on…

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