[quote]BostonBarrister wrote:
BostonBarrister wrote:
…
Actually, if Iraq were to really go to hell in a handbasket quickly, that would hurt McCain’s chances as well. Iran seems to comprehend this… BBC NEWS | Middle East | Iran 'behind Green Zone attack'
And they do that 10 months before the elections because…?
BostonBarrister wrote:
Because it’s far enough away that people will forget it by the election, but if they can destabilize Iraq the U.S. will look bad and McCain’s candidacy will suffer - and he’d the only candidate who has talked about making sure to finish the job in Iraq (though as I’ve said I don’t think either of the other candidates would really pull out right away - they’re just pandering to the base, as Obama’s fired FP advisor essentially said).
lixy wrote:
Make the US look bad? You are outstanding at that job on your own. Why would Iran bother?
More importantly, how’s providing the US with an excuse to stay in Iraq serving Tehran’s interests?
The U.S. leaving Iraq would leave an influence vacuum. Iran and Saudi Arabia and Turkey would all try to fill it, but Iran is in the catbird seat at the moment - provided the government is weak and that Iran can step in and help control the violence (very easy to do if it’s causing a lot of it). [/quote]
Iran, Saudi Arabia and Turkey are already doing all they can to influence Iraq, US presence notwithstanding.
Saudi Arabia is extremely worried (and understandably so) that they’ll have a Shi’a majority country next door. It has already caused rebellions of the oppressed Shi’a minority. Not to mention that the crushing majority of “foreign fighters” in Iraq are Saudis, and that they constitute the base of Al-Qaeda.
Turkey’s got more pressing things to worry about than influence Iraq. Ankara is largely hated in Iraq because of so many factors that listing them would take a long long time. The ones that spring to mind:
- Staunch US ally (i.e: friend of the bastards who wrecked the place)
- Periodic military incursions into Iraq.
- Claims for the oil-rich province of Mosul.
- Position towards Israel.
- Siding against Iraq post GWI.
Iran, in comparison, has always been the nice kid on the block and the Iraqis know that. Baghdad and Tehran are natural allies and there’s just nothing anybody can do to stop that. Iran is the greatest winner of your country’s war of aggression against the Iraqi people.
[quote]lixy wrote:
In my opinion, it is the opposite of what you claim. Washington(let’s face it, Petraeus is just another Bushie) is making that claim to boost McCain’s chances.
This whole Iran is aiding Al-Qaeda is beyond ridiculous. It defies common sense. Iran has greatly benefited from the overthrow of Hussein, and they have no possible reason for providing the US with excuses to stay in Iraq. Not to mention that Ben Laden and co. would turn to attacking Tehran the minute they get a chance.
BostonBarrister wrote:
They’ve benefited as long as they don’t get a Turkish-influenced functional democracy - Middle-Eastern style or not - on their doorstep. That would be very bad for the mullahs - and they are fighting hard to stop it. The QUDS isn’t even a proxy force - that is Iranian military.
lixy wrote:
WTF? Iranians already have Turkey on their doorstep. Do you even know your geography?
I do - are you familiar with the concept of a regional balance of power and Iran’s ambitions to be a regional hegemon? [/quote]
Like it or not, Iran is a regional power over there. They are within their natural sphere of influence. But as I explain above, Turkey is not as popular among the Iraqi people as Iran is.
[quote]lixy wrote:
Iran doesn’t benefit from a destabilized Iraq. They stand to gain a lot from a democratic Iraq. As long as chaos reigns over there, the MEK (just like Al-Qaeda) are the group benefiting from the lawlessness. A democratic Iraq is a natural ally of Tehran, and I don’t see how installing a Turkish-style military dictatorship is going to change that. Iran desperately needs trading partners and as long as Iraq is a failed state, the former suffers greatly.
Iran does need trading partners, but to the extent that Iraq is more influenced by the Turks and remains a strong U.S. ally, Iraq won’t be one of them - though I’m sure there would be more black-market trading along the border. [/quote]
Ally implies a voluntary action. Iraq bends over at your will because it doesn’t have much choice, what with you shooting at them and putting your people in power.
[quote]lixy wrote:
Now that Saddam is gone, the American military need to demonize another state, and Iran fits the bill perfectly. Washington can now claim that they need to keep Iran in check because of Tehran threatens American freedom and democracy. We’ll have the same stories about how Iranians are connected to Al-Qaeda and 9/11, and how their WMDs are a threat to world peace. I heard it all before, and I wasn’t impressed the first time around.
Luckily, no one was trying to impress you. To the extent the Iranians re-start their nuclear program, that will be a huge issue - though the Russians will likely be the deciding factor there.[/quote]
Figure of speech, dear. Figure of speech.
Like I said, the biggest winner is Iran. With your overstretched military, domestic opposition to the president, declining economy and unvoluntary efforts to jack up oil prices, Washington now sounds like a muzzled dog. The White House made a severe strategic mistake by not accepting Khamenei’s 2003 offer. Now, there’s not much you can do with your hands tied in Iraq. But hey, at least Saddam can’t threaten the world with his fictitious Al-Qaeda acolytes and stocks of WMDs.