The Power Of Demographics and Why Gingrich Can't Beat Obama

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Once again all you need do is check history. [/quote]

Oh, and a historical perspective…No republican has gone on to win the nomination without winning SC. Better cross those fingers tightly.

[quote]Sloth wrote:
Well Zeb, Romney can’t seem to finish off the extremely outspent/underfunded, frumpy, white-haired guy, with the pudgy fingers. According to gallup today, his lead nationally is still shrinking. 23%, 10%, and now 8%. If Gingrich scores big in SC, which looks very possible according to the last polls (lead increased AFTER the ex-wife interview), the momentum is his going into Florida. Sadly, I doubt Santorum will make it out of SC. And, if he doesn’t, I hope Gingrich goes on to knock the heck out of Romney in Florida. Knock that pageant crown right off of his head.[/quote]

And that sometimes happens in primary races. Just as it did for Geroge McGovern in 72’ and Barry Goldwater in 64’. They knocked the hell right out of their more moderate opponents. But as history shows us in the general election those read meat righty’s or lefty’s get CLOBBERED!

And unless you can point out why history would be kinder to Newt than to others who have gone down that same path here’s to four more years of Obama should Gingrich be the nominee.

Simple really.

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:
Once again all you need do is check history. [/quote]

Oh, and a historical perspective…No republican has gone on to win the nomination without winning SC. Better cross those fingers tightly.
[/quote]

Only since 1980 pal. But of course the entire point of this thread was to demonstrate that Newt can’t win. So obviously I’m thinking that he might pull an upset.

Tell me again how happy you’ll be the morning after the election facing 4 more years of Obama. Do you think it will have a good or bad impact on the country and you personally.

Are you doing a smart thing right now by pulling for the obvious loser in the general election?

Seems like your motivated more on emotion than anything else. Time will change that for you–I bet.

By the way Sloth if you’re looking for one particular primary to reach back into history the Florida primary is a better indicator. As no one from the republican party since 1972 has ever lost Florida and gone on to win the party’s nomination.

If I were you I’d start celebrating for your man Newt should he win Florida. Then of course after the general election you can mourn for him, for yourself and for the country at large.

But BY DINGY you’d have had your conservative! And that’s worth something right? Eh…

Gingrich wins. Led in independents and women.

Mr. and Mrs. Obama celebrate Gingrich win in SC.

Okay so they’re celebrating something else but if the walls could talk…

[quote]Sloth wrote:
Gingrich wins. Led in independents and women.[/quote]

I will grant him an amazing victory tonight - They surely loved his response to the adultery question and his strong debate performance.

BUT…

Are you suggesting my original analysis regarding the general election is wrong and that Gingrich will win independents and women vs Obama?

No, you wouldn’t be saying that you’re too smart to make that bet.

What I think is that a not-Romney will fire up and bring out more of the base, and capture enough women and independents. If, Obama can be defeated. If.

I’m waiting to see how Santorum did, myself. Third, he’ll probably drop. Fourth, I’m pretty darn certain–despite any talk prior about continuing on to FL–that he’ll be out of it in a day or two. Then, endorsement or not, Newt gets the bulk of Santorum’s support.

I will go on record now as saying that Newt is the only GOP candidate that can beat Obama. I disagree this time ZEB. Gingrich will splatter him in a debate to the point where the debates may actually matter this time. Newt’s dogmatic confidence is genuine and will be received as such even with the condescending arrogance that goes along with it. He is the only one who will be convincing in portraying why Obama has been so wrong and what needs to be done now instead. In this and his case? Being a consummate politician will actually work in his favor in contrast to Obama’s clearly perceived sophomoric incompetence. Newt can somewhat inexlpicably get away with blasting somebody without the nauseating moniker of “negative campaigning” doing as much damage.

Romney’s a pro too, but he is just not what it takes to defeat Obama.

All in my opinion of course.

Well, Tiribulus!

You know how good I am at picking Party and Presidential Nominees. So I’ll defer that to you!

One point, though; people need to be careful in thinking that Newt would “automatically” crush the President in a debate.

Mufasa

[quote]Sloth wrote:
I’m waiting to see how Santorum did, myself. Third, he’ll probably drop. Fourth, I’m pretty darn certain–despite any talk prior about continuing on to FL–that he’ll be out of it in a day or two. Then, endorsement or not, Newt gets the bulk of Santorum’s support. [/quote]

I’d be pretty surprised to see Santorum not move on to Florida after his third place finish. As for Ron Paul I think he better get used to coming in dead last.

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Well, Tiribulus!

You know how good I am at picking Party and Presidential Nominees. So I’ll defer that to you!

One point, though; people need to be careful in thinking that Newt would “automatically” crush the President in a debate.

Mufasa [/quote]

Mufasa, it’s not even a question. Newt would crush the man. The longer the time to answer, the more Newt begins to stand out. But, for the sake of argument, if Newt couldn’t? Romney would have to be carried home by an ambulance. This is Newt’s bread and butter.

[quote]Tiribulus wrote:
I will go on record now as saying that Newt is the only GOP candidate that can beat Obama. I disagree this time ZEB. Gingrich will splatter him in a debate to the point where the debates may actually matter this time. Newt’s dogmatic confidence is genuine and will be received as such even with the condescending arrogance that goes along with it. He is the only one who will be convincing in portraying why Obama has been so wrong and what needs to be done now instead. In this and his case? Being a consummate politician will actually work in his favor in contrast to Obama’s clearly perceived sophomoric incompetence. Newt can somewhat inexlpicably get away with blasting somebody without the nauseating moniker of “negative campaigning” doing as much damage.

Romney’s a pro too, but he is just not what it takes to defeat Obama.

All in my opinion of course. [/quote]

Then you too have been sucked into the Gingrich spin. Did you know that in a general election (unlike a primary) that most people think their candidate won even if he didn’t? Gingrich can spout every fact available and those who like Obama will not be impressed. And the independents will NEVER be swayed by a right wing candidate. He’ll lose women, independents, minorities, the youth vote and just about every other major demographic. As I’ve said he’d need the charm of a Ronald Reagan to pull this off and as we both know he doesn’t have that.

But as I said let’s let this Gingrich thing play out. If he’s the party’s choice my wife and I will write checks to his campaign and I’ll support him any way that I can. I am no fair weather republican. But… there’s no doubt in my mind that the general (with Newt leading the way) will not have a happy ending.

On to Florida and we’ll see if the Gingrich magic continues.

Elections truly are the best show on earth!

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Well, Tiribulus!

You know how good I am at picking Party and Presidential Nominees. So I’ll defer that to you!

One point, though; people need to be careful in thinking that Newt would “automatically” crush the President in a debate.

Mufasa [/quote]

Um…but he like told off that reporter and stuff so he’s like our man…um.

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:
I’m waiting to see how Santorum did, myself. Third, he’ll probably drop. Fourth, I’m pretty darn certain–despite any talk prior about continuing on to FL–that he’ll be out of it in a day or two. Then, endorsement or not, Newt gets the bulk of Santorum’s support. [/quote]

I’d be pretty surprised to see Santorum not move on to Florida after his third place finish. As for Ron Paul I think he better get used to coming in dead last.[/quote]

I think the money shuts down completely now. I think his numbers collapse from here, and quickly, as people decide Newt has to be the Anti-Romney as time starts to run out. Really, this was Santorum’s chance to capture that distinction. It’s too late for him. VP?!
Sant can’t win Fl by walking it and shaking hands, and he’d have to win Fl. Newt’s coffers are about to get flooded.

Edits: It’s a damned shame. No individual mandate, no TARP, no bailout, no man-made global warming. A sharp contrast to attack Obamacare and stimulus deficit spending.

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]Mufasa wrote:
Well, Tiribulus!

You know how good I am at picking Party and Presidential Nominees. So I’ll defer that to you!

One point, though; people need to be careful in thinking that Newt would “automatically” crush the President in a debate.

Mufasa [/quote]

Mufasa, it’s not even a question. Newt would crush the man. The longer the time to answer, the more Newt begins to stand out. But, for the sake of argument, if Newt couldn’t? Romney would have to be carried home by an ambulance. This is Newt’s bread and butter.
[/quote]

I just want to remind you that Nixon beat Kennedy for those who heard it on the radio. But for those who watched it on television Kennedy beat Nixon.

Oh never mind you don’t think looks matter so facts are not important I forgot–Go ahead you were saying?

[quote]Sloth wrote:

[quote]ZEB wrote:

[quote]Sloth wrote:
I’m waiting to see how Santorum did, myself. Third, he’ll probably drop. Fourth, I’m pretty darn certain–despite any talk prior about continuing on to FL–that he’ll be out of it in a day or two. Then, endorsement or not, Newt gets the bulk of Santorum’s support. [/quote]

I’d be pretty surprised to see Santorum not move on to Florida after his third place finish. As for Ron Paul I think he better get used to coming in dead last.[/quote]

I think the money shuts down completely now. I think his numbers collapse from here, and quickly, as people decide Newt has to be the Anti-Romney as time starts to run out. Really, this was Santorum’s chance to capture that distinction. It’s too late for him. VP?!
Sant can’t win Fl by walking it and shaking hands, and he’d have to win Fl. Newt’s coffers are about to get flooded.
[/quote]

I don’t disagree with a word you wrote. And his chance of VP is mighty slim with either man. There are better for both.

Who knows, though. Maybe Santorum will be declared the winner of SC three weeks from now.

[quote]Sloth wrote:
Who knows, though. Maybe Santorum will be declared the winner of SC three weeks from now.[/quote]

LOL…Iowa has to get its act together.