I know some of you love Gingrich. He really gave it to that commentator the other night right. You and your slightly fat friend were drinking beer and jumped up and down and gave each other a high five when John King got that oh so personal question crammed down his big fat liberal throat. In fact, when you went to work the next day all your buddies, at least the ones who took time to watch the debate, thought that Gingrich was DA MAN! He really showed em, why he even got a standing ovation. Everyone around you thinks that was a great moment therefore Gingrich can win. This is what we need someone who will stand up to that stinking liberal media and once and for all send Obama packing! ARGGGHHHH! (Swords waving in the air)
Not so fast my conservative friends. There are a few things…well many things as it turns out, that you are not thinking of.
Elections are made up of demographics. That is various groups of people who are inclined to vote certain ways based upon who they are.
Let’s take a quick look at Newt Gingrich’s chances of defeating Obama should he be the GOP nominee.
For our purposes we will look at 5 important demographic groups (keep in mind that many of us fall into more than one group, but there isn’t time to elaborate on that, so we’ll focus on the persons “primary” group.
Women aged 25-49
In various polling conducted before and after primary votes Newt Gingrich scored lower than any candidate with the exception of Ron Paul (yeah I know, I know THE CONSTITUTION). While Mitt Romney scored highest. In fact, the smooth, good looking and quite polished Romney beat Gingrich by almost 3-1 with the female vote. Not many of you realize that when a republican loses a Presidential election it’s usually the women who do him in. The country is just about 50% female so this group is imortant! And in fact the only time that a republican Presidential candidate captured this important demographic over the past 30 has been in 1984 when Reagan won a landslide victory over Walter Mondale (Reagan lost women in 1980 to Jimmy Carter, but barely) And once again when GW Bush won women over John Kerry (but that was very close). Ask yourself this question, will a fat old gray haired man like Newt Gingrich change this? Gingrich will lose women by a wide margin to the slick, good looking Barack Obama. This is an inevitability that no amount of campaigning will change. And this transcends mere looks. I don’t know if you’ve heard but women really, really hate it when a man cheats on his wife and that open marriage stuff—Um, that’s doesn’t go over well either. So three marriages later Newt will lose women by a record margin.
Young People 18-24
This is a demographic that is in love with the demoratic party fortunately they don’t vote in high numbers as a rule. Unfortunately, they came out in record numbers for Obama in 2008. And in all likelihood will do so again albeit in smaller numbers, for Obama once again. Most have swallowed their Professors liberal philosophy hook line and sinker. We have many of them on T Nation, world affairs experts who understand fully the implications of every major political movement across the globe. Yet they’ve not reached their 21st birthday (“what does age have to do with anything” LOL). Ah yes, I enjoy poking a stick in their faces. But let’s move on to my point. They too vote democrat straight line in most cases and not just for the highest office in the land. The republican candidate can only hope to reach in to that demographic and not be hurt too badly. In the case of Obama vs Gingrich the republicans will be lucky to get even 20% of this demo.
I’m not at all fond of this group they’re a wishy washy bunch. But they determined who the President would be in almost every close election in modern times. And the red meat that Gingrich loves to throw the far right is an absolute turn-off to this group. So you and your friends might love it when Gingrich hollers out red faced and punches the air with his pudgy finger, but while you are eating it up the independents are appalled and will not be walking but running to vote for Obama. That’s a shame too because Gingrich has such passion YOU THINK. But they see it as overly harsh and repugnant. Go figure other people actually have different views than your friends. How dare they?
Ah, we’d lose this one no matter what you say. I agree, but there are strategies which could blunt the significance. A red meat right wing candidate (with zip for charisma—say like Newt) will send every minority including the important Hispanic vote straight to the Obama lever. There is a way to actually win the Hispanic vote which would essentially cancel out the black vote that is automatically built in for Obama, but rest assured Newt can’t do it!
White Males 25-49
Surely this group would vote for old Newty boy. Yes, I think we have a winner here but not by a wide enough margin to off set the many groups (many not mentioned here) that he’d certainly lose. The averge white non union male doesn’t like Obama. And the GOP would probably be able to put up a mannequin (fully dressed of course) and beat Obama with this group.
As I said there are many other demographic groups but these are 5 very important ones. And as you can see Newt Gingrich is only winning one of them.
So enjoy Newts first, or possibly second place finish in South Carolina. Rejoice by having another beer with your fat friend, and don’t forget to knuckle bump all of your other pals who think just like you do. But try as you will you won’t be able to celebrate with more passion than the democratic leadership is doing every time Newt draws down on Romney. From day one they knew that the toughest man to beat for the Presidency is in fact Mitt Romney. And that’s why the White House Communications Director has had more negative comments about Romney than all of the other candidates combined. Because Mitt can win, or come very close to winning the many important demographic groups needed to become the President of the United States.
Now rush off and stock up on beer Newt might have a very good day today.
Enjoy! Obama’s second term doesn’t begin for one more year.