T Nation

The Power Of Demographics and Why Gingrich Can't Beat Obama


I know some of you love Gingrich. He really gave it to that commentator the other night right. You and your slightly fat friend were drinking beer and jumped up and down and gave each other a high five when John King got that oh so personal question crammed down his big fat liberal throat. In fact, when you went to work the next day all your buddies, at least the ones who took time to watch the debate, thought that Gingrich was DA MAN! He really showed em, why he even got a standing ovation. Everyone around you thinks that was a great moment therefore Gingrich can win. This is what we need someone who will stand up to that stinking liberal media and once and for all send Obama packing! ARGGGHHHH! (Swords waving in the air)

Not so fast my conservative friends. There are a few things...well many things as it turns out, that you are not thinking of.

Elections are made up of demographics. That is various groups of people who are inclined to vote certain ways based upon who they are.

Let's take a quick look at Newt Gingrich's chances of defeating Obama should he be the GOP nominee.

For our purposes we will look at 5 important demographic groups (keep in mind that many of us fall into more than one group, but there isn't time to elaborate on that, so we'll focus on the persons "primary" group.

Women aged 25-49

In various polling conducted before and after primary votes Newt Gingrich scored lower than any candidate with the exception of Ron Paul (yeah I know, I know THE CONSTITUTION). While Mitt Romney scored highest. In fact, the smooth, good looking and quite polished Romney beat Gingrich by almost 3-1 with the female vote. Not many of you realize that when a republican loses a Presidential election it's usually the women who do him in. The country is just about 50% female so this group is imortant! And in fact the only time that a republican Presidential candidate captured this important demographic over the past 30 has been in 1984 when Reagan won a landslide victory over Walter Mondale (Reagan lost women in 1980 to Jimmy Carter, but barely) And once again when GW Bush won women over John Kerry (but that was very close). Ask yourself this question, will a fat old gray haired man like Newt Gingrich change this? Gingrich will lose women by a wide margin to the slick, good looking Barack Obama. This is an inevitability that no amount of campaigning will change. And this transcends mere looks. I don't know if you've heard but women really, really hate it when a man cheats on his wife and that open marriage stuff---Um, that's doesn't go over well either. So three marriages later Newt will lose women by a record margin.

Young People 18-24

This is a demographic that is in love with the demoratic party fortunately they don't vote in high numbers as a rule. Unfortunately, they came out in record numbers for Obama in 2008. And in all likelihood will do so again albeit in smaller numbers, for Obama once again. Most have swallowed their Professors liberal philosophy hook line and sinker. We have many of them on T Nation, world affairs experts who understand fully the implications of every major political movement across the globe. Yet they've not reached their 21st birthday ("what does age have to do with anything" LOL). Ah yes, I enjoy poking a stick in their faces. But let's move on to my point. They too vote democrat straight line in most cases and not just for the highest office in the land. The republican candidate can only hope to reach in to that demographic and not be hurt too badly. In the case of Obama vs Gingrich the republicans will be lucky to get even 20% of this demo.


I'm not at all fond of this group they're a wishy washy bunch. But they determined who the President would be in almost every close election in modern times. And the red meat that Gingrich loves to throw the far right is an absolute turn-off to this group. So you and your friends might love it when Gingrich hollers out red faced and punches the air with his pudgy finger, but while you are eating it up the independents are appalled and will not be walking but running to vote for Obama. That's a shame too because Gingrich has such passion YOU THINK. But they see it as overly harsh and repugnant. Go figure other people actually have different views than your friends. How dare they?


Ah, we'd lose this one no matter what you say. I agree, but there are strategies which could blunt the significance. A red meat right wing candidate (with zip for charisma---say like Newt) will send every minority including the important Hispanic vote straight to the Obama lever. There is a way to actually win the Hispanic vote which would essentially cancel out the black vote that is automatically built in for Obama, but rest assured Newt can't do it!

White Males 25-49

Surely this group would vote for old Newty boy. Yes, I think we have a winner here but not by a wide enough margin to off set the many groups (many not mentioned here) that he'd certainly lose. The averge white non union male doesn't like Obama. And the GOP would probably be able to put up a mannequin (fully dressed of course) and beat Obama with this group.

As I said there are many other demographic groups but these are 5 very important ones. And as you can see Newt Gingrich is only winning one of them.

So enjoy Newts first, or possibly second place finish in South Carolina. Rejoice by having another beer with your fat friend, and don't forget to knuckle bump all of your other pals who think just like you do. But try as you will you won't be able to celebrate with more passion than the democratic leadership is doing every time Newt draws down on Romney. From day one they knew that the toughest man to beat for the Presidency is in fact Mitt Romney. And that's why the White House Communications Director has had more negative comments about Romney than all of the other candidates combined. Because Mitt can win, or come very close to winning the many important demographic groups needed to become the President of the United States.

Now rush off and stock up on beer Newt might have a very good day today.

Enjoy! Obama's second term doesn't begin for one more year.


Santorum! But I could live with a Newt win in SC. Take that, National Romney Online!


Hold up...Romney IS playing a red meat conservative part. In fact, he ran to the right of Perry and Newt on immigration. You are way off if you think Romney will be more attractive to this bloc.


Zeb, my Friend...

I love your careful assessments (except the MSLM thing!) and historical, political perspectives.

I really learn a lot!




Romney did run to the right, as all candidates do who participate in the republican nominating process. With that said, he is far more well known to be more moderate. And Newt is well known for being further right.

As I've said before far left or far right candidates who are fortunate enough to win the nomination usually the Presidency unless they have incomparable charisma and people skills. Reagan is the exception because of his communication skills and charisma. Obama too is an exception for those very reasons. And he was pushed forward by the MSLM like no other candidate in the history of our country. But that's another topic.

Back to basics:

What happened when George McGovern ran in 1972 as a lefty? He was crushed in a landslide.

What happened when Barry Goldwater ran as a righty in 1964? He was crushed in a landslide.

What will happen if Newt Gingrich gets the nod? He will lose badly. Maybe not a landslide because of the poor economy. But his defeat will send a message to the republican party, one I hope they hear.


Thanks Mufasa, but you should give more thought to your belief that the main stream media is actually fair. Can I be correct on the things that you believe to be true but just happen to be wrong on the one thing that you don't want to be true? Is it possible that you just don't see it because you are not looking for it? Or perhaps they are not doing anything that bothers you so you don't notice it (clears throat).

Either way the facts line-up in my direction. And when you're ready to once again have that debate I will point them out... again.


He ran to the right of Perry and Gingrich. Let's be clear here. He's the one who has earned articles about his extreme right positioning, and even caution from fellow conservatives. Romney isn't the best candidate to woo Hispanics. You can write off the hispanic vote completely.

Gingrich wins support from nation's largest Hispanic-GOP group

"The endorsement comes as the front-runner for the GOP nomination, Mitt Romney, has taken a tough, anti-illegal immigration line in the primary that is intended to shore up his conservative flank. Romney has differed with both Gingrich and Texas Gov. Rick Perry during GOP debates on immigration. Some Democrats think Romney's stance could hurt him in the general election."

Sorry Zeb, but you should amend your post. There is no way in heck Romney is the better choice if you're looking at the hispanic vote, period. His stance, as being to the right of Newt and Perry, will be repeated by the O-machine over and over.



Probably the latter, Zeb...they just don't "appear" to be doing things that bother me.

While I tend to think of myself as being part of a hated and despised group on "PWI" (Independent/Moderate)...(or as my friend Push would call me "A Wishy-Washy Fucker..."!...);

I tend to be "more right" on fiscal issues and "more left" on social ones (okay, Lift...I know, I know...that's a bullshit distinction!)

I would imagine that I would have to be "furthur right" than I am to see the Media Bias.



I disagree the 18-24 crowd will be voting in large numbers again. The unemployment rate for 18-19 yr old is over 20% and for the 10-24 crowd over 14%. All these misguided youths received for their trouble was incredibly high unemployment.


Maybe you better check where Mitt Romney's father was born. When all the dust settles should Mitt be the nominee you will see a grand out pouring of information regarding this piece of information. By the time the PR machine stops you will think that Romney actually has a real Mexican heritage. Furthermore, conservatives are never accepted as well as moderates within the Hispanic community. Once again all you need do is check history. I am not saying that Romney will have a lock on the Hispanic vote. What I am saying is that Gingrich will lose it and lose it badly to Obama.


You are actually part of a growing trend within the nation. Conservative fiscally and liberal socially. And that's one reason for Ron Paul's popularity. I swear if that movement had a better messenger that such a candidate would be swept into the White House. Of course this is just speculation.


Well, I actually said the same thing above regarding that demographic:

The point is the same, the republicans will lose this group. It's a matter of by how much. Romney vs Obama, Obama wins them by a smaller amount. Gingrich vs Obama Obama wins them in a landslide.


Gingrich wins support from nation's largest Hispanic-GOP group

I know you like the guy's hair, but come on. If the largest Hispanic GOP group is running away from the Romster, he aint winning hispanics over.


By the way, Gingrich is now leading with SC women according to ARG. PPP does give Romney a 1% lead, though.


First of all we were talking about the general election. The race will be between Obama and the GOP nominee. So I don't put much faith in a GOP Hispanic group backing Gingrich. Secondly, as I said above the Romney "Mexican connection" is actually not very well known to most people (remember most are not yet paying attention). I feel once this connection is exploited the Hispanic vote will be a lock for Romney. Remember people like to vote for who best represents their own interests. And nothing says that better than having your Dad born in and living in Mexico.

And yeah I mention Gingrich's hair and his enormous stomach a lot. And there is a reason for that. There has never been a fat gray haired man elected to the Presidency in the media age. It just doesn't happen. Hmm..that calls into question, when was the last fat gray haired old man elected to the Presidency?

Glad you asked:

The answer is William Taft 1913. He weighed in at 335 pounds. I think Gingrich is around 6 feet tall and I'd wager that he's very close to Taft's weight. His suit coat sometimes hides his enormous girth. He needs to tune into T Nation to slim down and muscle up. But he won't he's too busy running for President and assuring his current wife that there is no "other woman". Hey he must have to do that occasionally given his lousy history.

Ahem...back on track...

No he ain't winning Sloth. In fact, by the time Jon Stewart and the other comedian "Newsmen" (wink wink) are done with him he'll be a walking talking joke.

You know...I almost hope he beats Romney just to see if I'm spot on--No, no I take that back four more years of Obama with no electorate to rein him in is a very harsh thought.


No way my friend. When all the polling data is gathered you will find Romney beating Gingrich with the female vote. And I'd bet you on that one. Since I can't muster up a bet with any of the Paulies...ha ha.


Welp...I dunno. I'd have to say that Newt is not as fat as Taft. But then Taft's suit does not help him out in the various photo's. They didn't have a fat man's shoppe back in the early 1900's. The reason is that only the few rich people could afford to be fat. You see in those days if you didn't work you didn't eat. So back then poor people were actually thin, ulnike today. The reverse has happened. Poor people are fat and most of the wealthy are in shape. Yeah...we must be near the end. Up is down and down is up.

But I digress. Take a look at Taft and you tell me if he's fatter than Newt I say yes.



Let me get this straight; Romney is too extreme for GOP friendly hispanics....but will win over non GOP committed hispanics in the GE...because his pop was born in Mexico...even though ad after ad will highlight that even GOP supporting hispanic groups thought he was too extreme...

Hey, if you want to participate in the beauty pageant, go right ahead. But let's be a little humble when other's are actually trying to make the most principled choice their conscience will allow. At least the Paulbots have that much. The Romneybots are stuck with the superiority of his waistline, hair, or whatever.


The problem is that everyone is participating in that beauty pageant. And by sittig on the sidelines you only help the wrong person win.

Let me see if I can use a metaphor to explain your very poor logic on this one. We are in a baseball game and you (and other idealists) don't like the rules. But here's the catch, you are in the game and someone is going to win that game. Now you can try to break the rules. You can scream and jump up and down when a third strike is called. You can rant and rave about how there should be four strikes. But that won't help when the other team walks away with the win.

In essence all you are doing is helping Obama to a second term. And one more thing you're not even thinking of, the more votes that a nominee wins by the longer his coattails are and he helps elect Conggressman and Senators that may have lost. Yeah, I want to remove Obama from the White House during this next election. And you do that by playing the game better than the opposition. And as I said to you weeks ago, when you get your teeth kicked in enough times you will think the way I do.

Newt can be the perfect conservative, or Ron Paul can be the perfect constitutionalist. or Santorum might be seen as God's man in the race. But at the end of the day not one of them can beat Obama. And I've given you a slew of information to support my position.

So no I don't admire anyone who supports someone who cannot win. IN fact. I look down on them as making a very stupid decision based only on what he thinks "should be" and not "what is"

None of this nonsense will matter when Obama takes the oath about one year from now.

Winning gets us closer to what we want -- Losing further away. That I actually have to explain this to someone as intelligent as you are is just surprising.


Well Zeb, Romney can't seem to finish off the extremely outspent/underfunded, frumpy, white-haired guy, with the pudgy fingers. According to gallup today, his lead nationally is still shrinking. 23%, 10%, and now 8%. If Gingrich scores big in SC, which looks very possible according to the last polls (lead increased AFTER the ex-wife interview), the momentum is his going into Florida. Sadly, I doubt Santorum will make it out of SC. And, if he doesn't, I hope Gingrich goes on to knock the heck out of Romney in Florida. Knock that pageant crown right off of his head.