T Nation

The Obama Market!


I think we need a new name for an extreme bear market. 'Obama market' may do the trick. 300-points down today.

A simple Google search led me to:

"Since President Obama's election, the stock market has plunged 2,000 points"

"Since on that day last May when it was clear that Barack Obama had won the Democrats' nomination for president, the stock market has lost nearly 6,000 points. And since the democrats took over both houses of congress two years ago, the stock market has lost a whopping 7,000 points."

Got hope?


I do. hope that it will fall even further, at which time I will dump a bunch of money into it.


got better thread topics?


Right now, Obama's policies are not worth wiping my ass with...However, in reality the current situation has nothing to do with him...Not long from now, his attempted fixes may make shit worse. But at this time, it's not his fault. I wish I could blame him, but I cannot

Have no fear, at some point every president is unpopular for a period of time if not disdained forever. His time will come. I implore that we do not let unmitigated hate rival reason. He has only held office for a little over a month. We will have much to bitch about.

Know this, and I say it with complete faith, his weakness is arrogance. If it continues unchecked, it will bite him in the ass. He thinks he can do anything and talk anybody in to anything, he is wrong. He will realize that or learn it the hard way.

We have a long road. Have something that I don't, patience.


I love your avatar. I have two flags hanging out side my house. The first is the Betsy Ross American Flag, the other is the one from the Culpepper Militia flag. Look them up, I am sure you will like them. You may even want to get them for yourself.


I am quite familiar with them. The wife won't let me fly any flags. She thinks I am a nut job. Did let me put a Bob Barr sign in the yard this year.

I just ordered the Gadsden flag and the Culpepper flag. They'll have to go in my office/gun room/weight room. I just got done building it. It has vaulted ceilings so plent of room for flags.




Your wife is obviously much smarter than you, you should listen to her.


I don't know if this is an accurate prediction.
The media never goes after Democratic Presidents the way it goes after Republican ones.


Investors have no faith in Obama and his policies. Think Carter about mid 1977.

Stocks and other tangible investments will not rebound until he is out of office.

No reason for them to go up really. The policies he supports are anti-business and anti-growth, thus the values will sink along with the economy and the wealth of the nation.


Got any suggestions? I know that we don't want to talk about any topic that reflect poorly on Obama. The media is not doing it. And we can't do it either, right? So says you? Don't talk about the 900 million for Hammas. Don't talk about the stock market tanking. Don't talk about Obama's nominees being - almost exclusively - tax cheats.

Don't talk about bloated, pork-filled 'stimulus' package (unless it's to quote the man himself to say it's 'earmark free' - but TRY to say it with a straight face). Don't talk about his use of Keynesian economics (or if you do, at least pretend that this theory was not thoroughly debunked in the mid-50s).

Let's only talk about all the GOOD he's done! Okay......well......you start.


Wow. Almost too unbelievable to be true:


Can we talk about this? Nah. Let's just ignore it! Viva Obama! Everyone loves him. Well. Except investors. And the IRS.


True, but I don't think Clinton would claim he had an easy time of it...He was impeached you know. Media and all on his side.


Here's an opinion piece from the WSJ. Obama is running out of people to blame. It also correctly guages the mood of investors and those who will actually lead the economy back from the Obama madness.


That's a GREAT piece right there. Everyone should read it.


I know I'm repeating myself but I have no idea whether the reason was that no one got the point, everyone saw the point as being too obviously wrong to bother with, or everyone saw the point as being too obviously correct and thoroughly-stated as to require any followup:

Ultimately -- considering collectively all owners of a stock over time, and not concerning ourselves with its changing hands -- the reason a stock is purchased is for the net monies the investors will receive from dividends.

For example, if long term absolutely zero is expected to be paid, then except as a form of stamp-collecting, the value of the stock is zero. Or if the amount expected to be paid on an ongoing long-term basis is very high, then the value will be very high.

This is very basic and not really subject to being denied.

Now, suppose investors first fear, and then come to know, that corporate income tax will be substantially increased.

And second, that taxation on dividends will be greatly increased.

Let's say that people's willingness to pay money for a stock is such that they will spend X dollars to obtain net dividends (after they have been taxed) of $100.

Obama comes along and well, those evil corporations aren't paying enough tax.

So,as amount paid in dividends is ultimately intimately related to after tax profits (not necessarily in any given quarter, but long term) if corporate tax goes up to where for every $100 of after tax profit there had been, now there is only say $65 left, that will long-term drop dividends down to 65% of what they were.

But wait, Mr Obama is not done yet.

Those evil investors are paying only 15% tax on their dividends. Obama will move that to 20%.

So, not only do the dividends expected to, long term, drop to 65% of what they were, but the investor can now keep only 80/85ths as much of that as he could previously.

Which leaves him with net dividends of only 61% of what would be the case without the Obama taxation.

Is it not reasonable then that the market would value stocks at only 61% of what the stocks had been judged to be worth without the Obama taxation?

And this is not even accounting for less growth in GDP, and therefore on average corporate growth, from the taxation increase. Or accounting for insistence on going ahead with cap-and-trade, or the tera-pork spending bill.


Perhaps, you prefer this flag?


Pitchfork Time


Again! jesus.

You're returns under bush 8yrs/-22%
Something tells me after 8 years Obama beats that. By like a lot.


Ughh, I don't even want to read it. I already know what it's going to say, and the only thing it's going to do is fill me with hate.


None of you understand the market - which is why you are not very rich from the market.

Some of you sure have some beef with Obama though, let's blame him for the fall!