T Nation

The Iranian Situation


#1

I really don't think we need any more tension in the Middle East at this time, but we are going to have it whether we like it or not.

IAEA referral stokes Iranian defiance
http://www.cnn.com/2006/WORLD/meast/02/04/iran.wrap/index.html
[i]
VIENNA, Austria (CNN) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad on Saturday followed through on his threat to cease all cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog agency, the nation's state-run media, IRNA, reported.

The move, intended as retaliation for the agency referring Iran to the U.N. Security Council, means the country will begin enriching uranium and put an end to impromptu inspections of its nuclear facilities, IRNA reported.

Iran has said it is pursuing nuclear research for peaceful purposes. The United States and other countries accuse Iran of trying to build nuclear weapons.

Ahmadinejad issued the orders in a letter to Iranian Vice President Gholamreza Aghazadeh, who is the head of the Iranian Atomic Energy Organization, Iranian television reported.

In a 27-3 vote, the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency passed a resolution Saturday to report Iran to the Security Council. Syria, Venezuela and Cuba voted against the resolution.

China and Russia were skeptical of referring a key trade partner to the Security Council until language was included stating that no action would be taken against Iran -- including sanctions -- until IAEA Director-General Mohamed ElBaradei presents a report on the nation's nuclear activities next month.[/i]


#2

I'll have to agree with you, it's just a matter of time I think. Though I'm starting to believe that Iran's crazy ass leader doesn't think the world has the nut's to actually interfere militarilly. A diplomatic solution would have been nice, however I don't think real diplomacy was ever their MO in this case.

Hope for the best, prepare for the worst I guess.


#3

I think the diplomatic options have been exhausted. I think military action will come sooner then later and it will be a suprise massive strike on the nuke facilities, air force and naval targets.

They still have a chance to avoid it but I'm not hopeful.


#4

I truly believe that the Iranian PM has no idea of the depth of insanity most Israelis possess.

If anyone knows any Sabras (native Israelis), they'l know what I'm talking about.

My guess is that they've been itching to take out everything over .22 calibers in Iran for 6 months now, but we won't let them.

The leash, however, is going to drop soon. Iran cannot under any circumstances be trusted with nuclear weapons. We failed to stop North Korea from getting them and know they have to be dealt with like they're not run by a psychopathic midget.

Their nuclear facilities will be taken out within months and if they don't like it: fuck 'em.


#5

the problem with airstrikes is what happens with iraq?

Will the iranians attack US troops in iraq? If they do, what do we do? We cant occupy Iran too


#6

I don't think we have to occupy all of Iran to defend our positions in Iraq following airstrikes IMO


#7

I used to think that they were posturing like this for concessions so we would give them things to avoid the conflict now it looks like the crazy iranians are serious.

I saw pictures of some of their protests within iran and the people there want the right to have nuclear energy. They dont need nuclear energy guys they have all the oil they need for oil-fired electricity plants which they can fuel for cheap!

I dont see why the people of iran cant take a 3rd party view of things and realize how agressive their leader's rhetoric is, and how the rest of the world is just plain more peaceful than them.

Kudos to GWB for going about this the right way, by exausting thsoe diplomatic options.


#8

The Iranians are already attacking US troops in Iraq.

We don't need to occupy Iran, just destroy its nuclear weapon manufacturing capacity.


#9

is it not realistic that they'd try to invade iraq?


#10

Care to point to some information that supports this?

I mean, there is a difference between state sponsored actions and actions by wild eyed individuals. I'm certain that wild eyed folks are doing all kinds of whacky things over there.

Anything beyond speculation with respect to state sponsored actions? That would be significant...


#11

I wonder whats going to happen when the U.S lets israel shove a missile up Iran's ass. The US wont even need to fire a shot.


#12

Iran is taking a page right out of Sadaam's playbook. And they are betting that the world will balk at going in and disarming them after the whole WMD thing in Iraq.

I think they are dead wrong. Even the French have their panties in a wad over this situation.

I say we tell Israel they have 48 hours off the leash. Israel would destroy everything even remotely nuclear, including all the microwave ovens, inside of 36 hours.


#13

I'm sure they will act thru proxy in Iraq. Provide more training, support and personnel.

As for a massed assault from the Iranians into Iraq, don't bet on it. The Iranian air force will not survive a day and without air cover any massed ground forces will be cut off from supply and ground up. Iranian forces are well aware of this. That's why they want a nuke.


#14

They have plenty of oil for energy.They want the nuke and they are crazy enough to throw it.Wherever you live in this world,a situation like that will start a chain reaction that will affect everyone.Get them now or later when we are all glowing.TUFF situation with no margin for error.I also agree with Harris,those Israelis are not going to let that happen ,period!


#15

Iran is infiltrating terrorists across the border into Iraq and Afghanistan and is supplying the large IED's that are tearing apart our armored vehicles. They are using shaped charges.

I have read it quite a number of places. Keep you eyes open and you will see snippets of it reported now and again on the MSM, but generally they don't care to report what is going on, they just like to keep a body count.


#16

Zap,

Perhaps you'd like to point to "quite a few places"?

I'm sure there is lots of speculation, especially in "some places", but that isn't enough to make it reality.

Let's see some sources.


#17

Vroom,
Hate to agree with Zap, but I think that Iran has been involved in state-sponsored terror. I am on dial-up internet, and don't feel like looking for links, but Iran has been linked with Hezbollah. There is an international terrorist named Mugniya (no idea if that is spelled correctly) who has connections with the Iranian Mullahs. And I think that the 9/11 report showed that Iran had more links with the terrorists than Iraq did. Of course, so did Jack Abramoff...another can of worms. Sorry for not substantiating or providing links.


#18

Here's an article, but I think it's archived.

http://www.time.com/time/archive/preview/0,10987,1093747,00.html

another
http://www.signonsandiego.com/uniontrib/20050101/news_1n1iraq.html

another
http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=302

another
http://www.fas.org/sgp/crs/mideast/RS22323.pdf

another
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,7374-1813246,00.html

another
http://www.thisisrumorcontrol.org/node/287

another
http://www.payvand.com/news/04/apr/1102.html

another
http://www.washingtontimes.com/world/20041012-123421-3384r.htm

another
http://www.ncr-iran.org/content/view/782/1/

another
http://www.businessweek.com/bwdaily/dnflash/oct2005/nf2005104_6172_db056.htm

another

another
http://www.cfr.org/publication/8117/iraq.html%20)#1

another
http://www.iranfocus.com/modules/news/article.php?storyid=3807

another
http://www.janes.com/security/international_security/news/jid/jid050526_1_n.shtml

another

another
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2087-1796566,00.html

another
http://www.iranvajahan.net/cgi-bin/news.pl?l=en&y=2004&m=04&d=15&a=13

Hundreds more out there, just a matter of tracking them down. No one is really arguing that Iran is not supporting the insurgency, except Iranians.


#19

thats totally true but what about the radiatoin that will leak all over the iran and the world for the next billion years does that mean fuck as us well ?


#20

A bit cryptic. Could you elaborate?