T Nation

The Iran, Russia, Syria Situation

So I’ve been reading up, doing my research so to speak.

I’ve noticed that there have been threads here and on a few other sites I visit with some excellent contributions but no real attempt at joining all the dots together.

I’m no expert in this sort of thing but I have my opinions.

Iran want a conflict… No two ways about that and I don’t think this is something they have decided on in the spur of the moment. I think it has been a planned mission and an effort that has spanned at least ten years. If I had enough time I could probably search the net for articles which would back up that claim and maybe even further back. It’s much easier in hindsight to see what a country was up to.

Iran have big friends, namely Russia and Putin isn’t exactly Santa… Russia aren’t the USSR anymore but they’re not THAT different. They still have a massive stock pile of nuclear weapons and are already talking about using them if anyone touches Iran. Iran are also talking about using whatever force is necessary to ‘defend their interests’. Since they currently only have their first nuke - at least to our knowledge, they must feel confident that Russia are behind them 100%.

Russias interest in Iran is obviously purely business. They want them for the oil and even though it may be a very fickle relationship, it’s a very powerful one.

Again Russia is heavily invested in Syria who also have very good ties with Iran.

Iran want to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth and this is not an understatement. Their propaganda has been so powerful that they have support of a large part of their population. Their citizens hate Israel, America, England etc.

I honestly feel the way things are shaping up that they will attack Israel but not until they feel completely ready to do so. Pre-emptive strike by Israel will cause nothing but war and I think this is why they haven’t already. If Israel attack first, America may pull their support for them in fear of being branded as the aggressors. If Israel attack first Russia will jump in to defend Iran.

Syria is a similar situation. No one is doing anything while mass genocide is going on because it’s a powder keg.

If these nations are in cahoots beyond what we can even imagine, who is to say that Syria isn’t just a giant lure. I know that sounds extremely conspiracy-ish but how do we know? There doesn’t seem to be that much sense in Syrias continued genocide of it’s peoples, especially when for all appearances their leader looks as though he is capable of 2+2 = 4.

If these operations have been going on for longer than a decade who knows how far Iran has influenced world events. They could have been influencing/funding terrorist cells such as Al Qaeda.

Deception and bombings seem to be something Iran specialise in. Are we really to believe that the suicide bombings in Israel a Jewish Democracy isn’t being caused directly by the anti-semetic propaganda coming from Iran or not directly ordered from above, through the perhaps funded terrorist cells and done like that?

I don’t know my thoughts are kind of muddled and a little crazy in places, but this is a serious problem and I’m not sure how we are going to sort out this situation.

Thoughts?

[quote]Mr_White wrote:

Iran have big friends, namely Russia and Putin isn’t exactly Santa… Russia aren’t the USSR anymore but they’re not THAT different. They still have a massive stock pile of nuclear weapons and are already talking about using them if anyone touches Iran. Iran are also talking about using whatever force is necessary to ‘defend their interests’. Since they currently only have their first nuke - at least to our knowledge, they must feel confident that Russia are behind them 100%.

[/quote]

When did Russia say that? Got a link or quote? Just curious, I haven’t heard anything along those lines.

“Iran want a conflict… No two ways about that”

200 years in the making huh, I guess they’re itching for it while the west don’t want any trouble, we’re oh so peaceful here.

“and I don’t think this is something they have decided on in the spur of the moment. I think it has been a planned mission and an effort that has spanned at least ten years.”

No government decides anything spur of the moment, that is why we have been spending the good part of the last decade surrounding Iran with our military right on their doorstep.

"Iran have big friends, namely Russia and Putin isn’t exactly Santa… Russia aren’t the USSR anymore but they’re not THAT different. They still have a massive stock pile of nuclear weapons and are already talking about using them if anyone touches Iran. "

I don’t recall anywhere Russia saying it will use nuclear bombs against anyone who touches Iran.

“Iran are also talking about using whatever force is necessary to ‘defend their interests’. Since they currently only have their first nuke - at least to our knowledge, they must feel confident that Russia are behind them 100%.”

Of course any country would use force to defend their interests.
Iran doesn’t have a nuclear bomb yet, where did you read that?

“Russias interest in Iran is obviously purely business. They want them for the oil and even though it may be a very fickle relationship, it’s a very powerful one.”

Correct about Irans relationship with Russia, it’s purely business and the Iranian population are aware of that.

“Iran want to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth and this is not an understatement. Their propaganda has been so powerful that they have support of a large part of their population. Their citizens hate Israel, America, England etc.”

Wrong, most Iranians actually idolize American culture and though they may have animosity towards the west for various political reasons they actually would love to be able to travel freely and enjoy an iota of the freedoms we have here in the west.

“I honestly feel the way things are shaping up that they will attack Israel but not until they feel completely ready to do so. Pre-emptive strike by Israel will cause nothing but war and I think this is why they haven’t already. If Israel attack first, America may pull their support for them in fear of being branded as the aggressors. If Israel attack first Russia will jump in to defend Iran.”

Why on earth would Iran attack Israel, this would be utter madness.

“Syria is a similar situation. No one is doing anything while mass genocide is going on because it’s a powder keg.”

Look there are plenty of uprisings around the world all the time, some turn into the Egypt, Libya or Syria, hell even Iran was almost in a similar situation not long ago. As wrong as this may sound, it’s not always for the best like with the Iranian revolution.

“If these nations are in cahoots beyond what we can even imagine, who is to say that Syria isn’t just a giant lure. I know that sounds extremely conspiracy-ish but how do we know? There doesn’t seem to be that much sense in Syrias continued genocide of it’s peoples, especially when for all appearances their leader looks as though he is capable of 2+2 = 4.”

Syria could be a prefect ‘lure’ for the west to dish more dirt on Iran, it depends how you look at it. Politics is a nasty business.

“If these operations have been going on for longer than a decade who knows how far Iran has influenced world events. They could have been influencing/funding terrorist cells such as Al Qaeda.”

Maybe so, just like we funded the Taliban.

“Deception and bombings seem to be something Iran specialise in.”

Again maybe so, but so do we.

If Russia is worried about Iran, it should look at what happened in Iraq. When Saddam was in charge they had large oil contracts. Once we invaded and imposed regime change, the same regime voted to award the oil contracts to the same Russian companies who operated there before the war.

and if ya don’t believe me:

http://news.monstersandcritics.com/business/news/article_1521349.php/Iraq-awards-oil-contract-to-Russian-led-group

[quote]gonepostal wrote:

[quote]Mr_White wrote:

Iran have big friends, namely Russia and Putin isn’t exactly Santa… Russia aren’t the USSR anymore but they’re not THAT different. They still have a massive stock pile of nuclear weapons and are already talking about using them if anyone touches Iran. Iran are also talking about using whatever force is necessary to ‘defend their interests’. Since they currently only have their first nuke - at least to our knowledge, they must feel confident that Russia are behind them 100%.

[/quote]

When did Russia say that? Got a link or quote? Just curious, I haven’t heard anything along those lines.[/quote]

Here…

[quote]shorty_blitz wrote:
“Iran want a conflict… No two ways about that”

200 years in the making huh, I guess they’re itching for it while the west don’t want any trouble, we’re oh so peaceful here.

“and I don’t think this is something they have decided on in the spur of the moment. I think it has been a planned mission and an effort that has spanned at least ten years.”

No government decides anything spur of the moment, that is why we have been spending the good part of the last decade surrounding Iran with our military right on their doorstep.

"Iran have big friends, namely Russia and Putin isn’t exactly Santa… Russia aren’t the USSR anymore but they’re not THAT different. They still have a massive stock pile of nuclear weapons and are already talking about using them if anyone touches Iran. "

I don’t recall anywhere Russia saying it will use nuclear bombs against anyone who touches Iran.

“Iran are also talking about using whatever force is necessary to ‘defend their interests’. Since they currently only have their first nuke - at least to our knowledge, they must feel confident that Russia are behind them 100%.”

Of course any country would use force to defend their interests.
Iran doesn’t have a nuclear bomb yet, where did you read that?

“Russias interest in Iran is obviously purely business. They want them for the oil and even though it may be a very fickle relationship, it’s a very powerful one.”

Correct about Irans relationship with Russia, it’s purely business and the Iranian population are aware of that.

“Iran want to wipe Israel off the face of the Earth and this is not an understatement. Their propaganda has been so powerful that they have support of a large part of their population. Their citizens hate Israel, America, England etc.”

Wrong, most Iranians actually idolize American culture and though they may have animosity towards the west for various political reasons they actually would love to be able to travel freely and enjoy an iota of the freedoms we have here in the west.

“I honestly feel the way things are shaping up that they will attack Israel but not until they feel completely ready to do so. Pre-emptive strike by Israel will cause nothing but war and I think this is why they haven’t already. If Israel attack first, America may pull their support for them in fear of being branded as the aggressors. If Israel attack first Russia will jump in to defend Iran.”

Why on earth would Iran attack Israel, this would be utter madness.

“Syria is a similar situation. No one is doing anything while mass genocide is going on because it’s a powder keg.”

Look there are plenty of uprisings around the world all the time, some turn into the Egypt, Libya or Syria, hell even Iran was almost in a similar situation not long ago. As wrong as this may sound, it’s not always for the best like with the Iranian revolution.

“If these nations are in cahoots beyond what we can even imagine, who is to say that Syria isn’t just a giant lure. I know that sounds extremely conspiracy-ish but how do we know? There doesn’t seem to be that much sense in Syrias continued genocide of it’s peoples, especially when for all appearances their leader looks as though he is capable of 2+2 = 4.”

Syria could be a prefect ‘lure’ for the west to dish more dirt on Iran, it depends how you look at it. Politics is a nasty business.

“If these operations have been going on for longer than a decade who knows how far Iran has influenced world events. They could have been influencing/funding terrorist cells such as Al Qaeda.”

Maybe so, just like we funded the Taliban.

“Deception and bombings seem to be something Iran specialise in.”

Again maybe so, but so do we.[/quote]

Very good points!

I’ve been getting most of my info off of a site called theextinctionprotocol which I’ve linked a few articles to in a post above.

If you search Iran, Russia etc on their site you will see where I’m getting my info. I think they’re a credible site they seem to report what hits the BBC a few days in advance and quite often a lot of the stuff to do with Iran never does hit the mainstream media.

@shorty…You do realize that Iran has declared Israel a cancer that must be cut out of the middle east. Yes it would be utter madness, sure a lot of Iranians probably don’t want war. You can’t just sit there and say “WRONG, they wouldn’t do that!” They’ve declared their hatred over and over again. They’ve made it more than clear that they want to wipe out Israel. Again, no way all Iranians want war but their leaders that are in power certainly do.

As far as Russia using nukes…who knows half the point of having nukes is to use them as a perceived threat.

Syria is screwed up, mass genocide. I don’t see a larger conspiracy but that would be the point. I do see a brutal dictator slaughtering thousands…not cool.

It’s just politics. Russia are weak but still proud, china are getting stronger but feel they don’t get enough respect… neither country likes the West to feel like they can use NATO for whichever agenda they have in mind. Talk of russian nukes is way of the mark…

Plus the iranians are just shit stirrers, some missile strikes are about as far as this will go.

IMO the reason the Russians and Chinese are being so obstinate over Syria is because of libya. they abstained because we promised we would stop civilians getting hurt. That changed very quickly through mission creep into get the NTC in power, many of whom are decidedly dodgy to say the least.

As for Iran, I think everyone is against a war for how it would totally wreck the world economy. I want to see the sanctions really bite before I say military action is necessary but the longer that happens the less likely an air strike could take out nuclear installations (though I think they can’t really and if they don’t take them all out they’re screwed) and a ground invasion just couldn’t happen.

Gonepostal…Come on, Israel thrives on hatred for it’s existence and so does American foreign policy and so do the right wing mullahs in Iran. Average people couldn’t give a damn as long as they have a comfortable life be it in Iran, Israel or any country in the west. Hatred and instability in the middle east plays in everyones favour apart from the average Joe.

Bambi…you want to see the sanctions bite, who’s it going to bite? Khamenei, Ahmadinejad? You think they give a shit about sanctions? You think if Irans economy goes to the shits they give a damn?

[quote]shorty_blitz wrote:
Average people couldn’t give a damn as long as they have a comfortable life be it in Iran, Israel or any country in the west. Hatred and instability in the middle east plays in everyones favour apart from the average Joe.[/quote]

srsly?

[quote]shorty_blitz wrote:
Bambi…you want to see the sanctions bite, who’s it going to bite? Khamenei, Ahmadinejad? You think they give a shit about sanctions? You think if Irans economy goes to the shits they give a damn?[/quote]

Yes.

Because if they bite, and Iran can no longer afford fuel subsidies, and food and items necessary to keep its people, many of whom outside of the suburbs of Tehran are very poor, Ahmedinejad will see Mubarak and Gaddahfi as Banquo’s ghosts at his dining hall.

It almost happened in 2009.

[quote]shorty_blitz wrote:
Bambi…you want to see the sanctions bite, who’s it going to bite? Khamenei, Ahmadinejad? You think they give a shit about sanctions? You think if Irans economy goes to the shits they give a damn?[/quote]

They’ll probably spin it to bolster support for the nuke program and anti western/semite agenda.

Didn’t China just sign a massive oil contract with Iran?

I agree, they’ll spin the hell out of it and use it as propaganda against the great satan.

Bambi, in Syria, Libya and Egypt those dictators were openly shooting their own people, they also did that during the riots in the streets with the green movement in Iran, these guys are nasty pieces of work and you think by fucking up a whole countries economy you’re going to hurt these guys. They started with nothing in their pockets and they’ll die with nothing in their pockets like the rest of those tyrants. They won’t be hurting, it will be the people who have lives worth living that those sanctions will hurt. I’m not an airy fairy liberalist tree hugger but I also don’t believe in knee jerk reactions that will get us nowhere.

[quote]Bambi wrote:
IMO the reason the Russians and Chinese are being so obstinate over Syria is because of libya. they abstained because we promised we would stop civilians getting hurt.

[/quote]

Wow, you serious? Serious credibility lost with that one Bambi.

[quote]SexMachine wrote:

[quote]Bambi wrote:
IMO the reason the Russians and Chinese are being so obstinate over Syria is because of libya. they abstained because we promised we would stop civilians getting hurt.

[/quote]

Wow, you serious? Serious credibility lost with that one Bambi.[/quote]

:frowning:
OK let me rephrase that because it was midnight over here and I’d had a few beers.

It’s about geopolitics ‘spheres of influence’ in that Russia has put a lot of influence into Syria but I do think the Libya issue didn’t help. We got China + Russia to abstain on the promise that it was not ‘mission creep’ but stopping Gaddahfi raising Benghazi to ashes.

But then I think there’s a general reluctance to support the Free Syrian Army, as we know little about them and what we do know is that they want to ‘avenge’ past massacres so it’ll be an ethnic blood bath a la Iraq 2007

[quote]Bambi wrote:
IMO the reason the Russians and Chinese are being so obstinate over Syria is because of libya. they abstained because we promised we would stop civilians getting hurt. That changed very quickly through mission creep into get the NTC in power, many of whom are decidedly dodgy to say the least.

As for Iran, I think everyone is against a war for how it would totally wreck the world economy. I want to see the sanctions really bite before I say military action is necessary but the longer that happens the less likely an air strike could take out nuclear installations (though I think they can’t really and if they don’t take them all out they’re screwed) and a ground invasion just couldn’t happen.[/quote]

The sanctions are totally meaningless and only serve to harden the resolve on the regime whilst allowing western politicians to avoid actually having to make a real decision on the issue. Maybe you are referring to the useless oil sanctions imposed by Europe on Iran??? which are a farce Iran just sells it’s oil elsewhere and the stupid Europeans lose out.