The Investing Thread (Coronavirus Edition)

The airline industry has to have Boeing. No way they are allowed to go under.

Not to mention they have 5 years of backlog currently. It’s a painful pick, because your gains won’t be tomorrow, but 2-5 years from now you’re probably looking at 300-500% gains.

It may be a two year ride back to the glory days, but it’ll be a big gainer after you average it out.

It could also indicate that we are good investors.

I don’t think it is easy at all to invest at the bottom. Close to the bottom is the goal. It is why I am staggering my investments a bit.

This is literally what everyone Is saying right now.

Literally, it’s not. Read the thread.

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Sorry for the absolute term ‘literally.’

But I feel like every article I read in the comments it’s doomsday. It’s DONT BUY!

That’s when I started buying.

I hope you are and you make a killing.

It’s ok to have opposing opinions. You might like investing in cruise businesses. I don’t believe that the government trying to prop up the stock market will mean people will want to book a cruise. Different opinions but it’s fine, it’s how it should be.

I sincerely hope you make a killing btw.

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Good luck to you matey, I hope you make a ton of money.

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Keep in mind “going under” is not the same thing as bankruptcy. Boeing can and would continue as a going concern however the equity holders would be wiped out. This is what happened to GM in 2009/2010. The current company called GM is less than 10 years old. The previous owners (stock holders) were wiped out.

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I agree with you somewhat. I think cruise lines will take a while to be profitable again. Will people want to go on cruises again in 3-4 years? I think so.

I am only in at 2.5K, so making a killing is going to be hard to do. I will probably end up at 5-10K total, so still a killing is going to be difficult.

Sounds like the govt doesn’t want them in bankruptcy though. Unless I’m missing something? They will issue a loan essentially to prevent it, and keep them solvent.

Am I missing something? I need to know lol

Gov’t spent $50B to bail out GM as well and wound up losing ~ $11B when it was all over.

The airline industry has to have a Boeing. This doesn’t rule out the possibility it is New Boeing after chapter 11. The backlog is going to change in a hurry. Every order is extremely likely to have a force majeure clause that would allow airliners to get out of the orders for events like pandemics. I haven’t read Boeings 10k/q’s but I don’t think I’m going out on much of a limb to suggest that the backlog is going dissolve with little chance of charging any sort of cancellation fee.

If you’re investing your first few hundred, then dollar cost average into an index fund that tracks the global stock market. Don’t try to catch falling knives. Most importantly, make regular contributions a priority.

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Not to mention:

  • Boeing is America’s #1 exporter. This is going to factor into Trump’s decision given his views on trade.
  • Boeing is a critical defense contractor, making their survival a national security matter.
  • There are lots of former Boeing execs in Trump’s admin, and they’ll be lobbying for a bailout. Can’t leave their buddies hanging.

Boeing will get bailed out with the airlines, but the stock price could fall another 50%… who knows. Even when they do return to profitability, they’re going to be paying back loans for a long time.

Like many companies, they’ve been using borrowed money to buy back their own stock at record prices. So… a bunch of executives buying stock to improve EPS numbers, which in turn boosts their compensation. Look where that got the company. Billions of market cap has evaporated and they’re leveraged up to their eyeballs. And of course, employees and taxpayers are left holding the bag. This should piss everybody off.

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As a non-US-individual, how was Boeing before this began given the debacle revolving their most recent plane?

Good solid advice IMO. I am buying single stocks that have lost so much cost AFTER I buy more of my 401K index funds.

I did not think before some of the single stocks dropped so so much that I would ever buy a single stock.

Oil down another 24% at one point to 18 year lows.

Boeing down 26% today.

I was early, but I’ll keep buying. Transitioning to safer picks and funds though.

This market and people in general have no sense at this point and I’m thinking the bottom may be more like 15-16k Dow.

I’m probably older and have been in this market since 1984. When everyone panicked in 1987 I was buying. I’m normally a mutual fund guy through fidelity also but have dabbled in a few stocks like AMR during 911. I just couldn’t past that up. Just during this crisis I’ve lost a lot on paper but instead of worrying about that I just dropped my entire yearly bonus into my 401k that buys at today’s closing price. Only timewill tell if that was a good idea but I didn’t want to let the tax man eat so much of it up.

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I love this and TVIX/VXX/DWT.