T Nation

The Investing Thread (Coronavirus Edition)

I don’t know that it’s so much a question of what bounces first but what bounces highest. Bottoms are bottoms because there’s broad participation across all assets. But if you’re looking to outperform the market you want to be in an industry (assuming we’re talking about equities) that is down on the threat of an extended quarantine period but would recover strongly if this lasts less time than expected.

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Major airlines. They are absolutely murdered.

I really like Caterpillar. Norfolk Southern, CSX, etc railroads have a great prospective and look ahead. I negotiate with them every year. They basically have their customer base captive.

Kinder Morgan is at a great entry. CEO buying stock like crazy.

Martin Marietta/Vulcan Materials: HUGE backlogs. Big earnings now, and even larger in coming years…think infrastructure. What else is bipartisan?

Lots of great picks surfacing.

I know they’ll recover, but I suspect they’ll need a few quarters to regain revenue. They’ve been hammered.

This is what I’ve been thinking. I have CAT currently, but have also considered 3M, X and other similar companies that haven’t been as drastically impacted. Netflix has lost 20%, but shouldn’t be impacted by less revenue since more people are watching while they self quarantine.

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ES is up 4%

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Looks like futures are now modestly up.

Going to be a flatter day, I think. Everyone trying to digest yesterday’s sell off.

Hard to believe we’re not close to the bottom. Maybe DOW 19K, but can’t be much lower.

I know people like Schiff love a doomsday scenario, but this economy was strong, and will be strong.

We’ll be back to DOW highs by EOY. America loves a success story. When we defeat Covid-19, markets will soar. Once we have our president set for the next term, markets will soar.

It’s going to be a rocky 60 days, but big gains to be had Q3-Q4.

I’ve invested in Royal Dutch Shell and American Airlines since they started to dip. Shell was too early and has lost another 20% since I got it, AA I got today. Only other individual company I’ve invested in is a small amount in Virgin Galactic as a bit of a risky option. That was around the start of the dip and it’s down 40%.

Also been drip feeding bits into S&P 500, FTSE 100 and a tech fund each week.

Got about as much left in cash I can invest as I do already invested and not sure what to do with the rest.

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Market is loving the presser.

Bought down to 108 on Boeing.

I think bottom is close.

Optimism and hope will drive this economy soon. Window to buy at insane value is probably 1-2 more weeks, max.

The first to bounce back will be boeing, dine in restaurants, casinos, malls, cruises, oil and gas .
We are headed to a global recession for sure. Even the vaccine won’t be ready soon, furthermore we are talking about a major slowdown globally.
Sure korea and china managed to nip the rising cases problem, but will they be able to continue doing so without lockdowns ?
Nevertheless there are 3 options for the world

  1. Supress till vaccine get started and vaccinate those vulnerable first, then restart.
  2. Go uk mode, infect everyone and treat it as flu so that we gain immunity. Culling those with weak immunity. Maybe 50 pct of vulnerable group will die. Due to lack of ventilators and hospital capacity.
  3. Increase hospital capacity, and reopen everything, while imposing a mandatory self isolation for those vulnerable.
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Bought shares of TSLA. Should be interesting. $433.

The fact you guys are talking about investing means we are not near the bottom yet. The perfect time to invest is just past the point of maximum pessimism, slightly on the upward curve.

This has a bit to go so I’m adopting a wait and see strategy, get further information and try time it right.

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I understand your sentiment but much like Rockefeller and his shoe shine boy I think there are other obvious indicator’s of a market bottom as well.

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Haha those clowns.

I still don’t think we are near bottom. My thoughts are we will be at bottom when everyone is saying “don’t invest, stay away”. I suppose that makes me a contrarian. So be it. It’s easy enough for us to monitor anyway.

Good luck investors.

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I think we still have a bit to go before bottom. Keep in mind the market is forward-looking. I think the market will be at the bottom when things in the “real world” are at their absolute worst - peak infection, mass closures, etc. That’s generally how it works.

That said, I think current valuations look pretty good if you have a long term horizon. Just be sure to look at cash flow, borrowing and how these companies are financing their dividends. We’re amidst something of a corporate credit bubble, and the Fed’s policies are going to make it worse. Look for strong balance sheets. Look for defensive consumer staples. High flying growth stocks don’t do well in these types of environments.

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I’ve never bought stock, I’m just a poor boy making minimum wage, but I have a few hundreds euros willing to use.

I’m in Europe so I won’t be buying the same stuff, but yeah I was thinking airlines like Boeing. Renault has plummeted as well. I don’t really know

I’ve successfully traded the dips before, but against my better judgement I did not sell the February run-up. I went to 85% cash on Friday. Most of that was S&P index funds so I was out at 2711. Today’s going to be another brutal day. I don’t think the bottom is in yet, but I may start getting back in slowly today. Eventually I’ll likely put 2/3 back in the S&P and the rest in some of the specs you listed.

Now my thoughts. My goal isn’t necessarily to find the largest mover. I want to find something that will double fast and still give time to get into something else with plenty of room to run. Airlines are an obvious choice right now, although I do worry there could be some consolidation. Delta and American are still at the top of my list here. I do NOT like Boeing. If the government wants to use a company as an example and withhold funds they would be a perfect pick.

I’m watching the same cruise lines as you as well, but I think they’d could be a little slower to rebound and are in my second tier. Business travel will be the first thing to bounce back, not leisure travel. For this reason I like Hertz too. Business traveler oriented hotels are another one to watch. Hilton, Marriott, and Hyatt should all be good choices.

One other suggestion that I think has been unfairly hit is Roku. The company’s still not profitable but carries relatively little debt. It is also in my group of “slower movers”.

I’m not touching energy right now. Coronavirus uncertainty is enough for me.

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Did you see that instead of firing staff they put their workers on a 0-hour schedule making them not eligible for unemployment benefits?

WOW! Omg, are you spying on me in my home office. I logged into my social on blizzard. Hearthstone has been on my devices but haven’t had time for that good ole time synch!

Source? I see the viral tweet but nothing more. I’m not here to debate the morality of any of these companies - there’s a PWI thread for that already, but this seems more like a state issue than a Marriott issue. It’s not a lay off, it’s a furlough and should be eligible for unemployment.

That was my source too. Granted not a good one, but it’s going to have PR-impact nevertheless. From what I understand, issuing counter-statements (even when true) is rarely effective and sometimes counter-effective. I.e., issuing

No, company X did NOT do Y

will eventually be remembered as

Company X did Y

So, whether or not Marriott did what is alleged the harm will be done.

Neither am I, but the perceived morality/immorality of companies can have an effect on their stock price presumably even more so when their action/inactions are related to events that impacted most people.

Gotcha. Add Norwegian to that list to with their leaked emails. I find it more likely that consumers will have short memories here and one quick “rewards” special will take care of it. That’s pure speculation on my part though.

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