T Nation

The Future of Gold?

Could this be the shape of things to come?

Gold will decrease this month, possibly next month. When we get the job reports for the next few months we will see decreases in manufacturing and obvously the temp jobs. When that happens Gold will rise even faster then its falling. Add in all the phantom money from the stimulus and the 200 billion from tarp that they are going to redirect into the private sector and Gold will rise even faster.

The future of gold is what it always has been - a bit of a safe haven (though only partially) when investors begin to feel antsy about turmoil of the value of assets. Then, it will become an afterthought as investors commonsensically choose to invest in the cash flow generated by productive assets.

The romance with gold is always short-lived, if for no other reason that in times of dropping or otherwise volatile values, investors begin to recognize that assets become underpriced given their ability to generate cash flow. Thus, while gold looks attractive, at some point investors think the deals on other assets are just too good. And they are right.

Paradigm Shift

When printing dollars benefitted everyone, they were happy and used the paper. Now that more and more people (especially the Chinese) begin to see paper money as a NEGATIVE, as a subtle form of taxation, they begin to flee paper.

What will happen when no one will lend to the US government unless the paper is backed by gold?

[quote]JEATON wrote:
Could this be the shape of things to come?[/quote]

Eventually, but not anytime soon.

[quote]John S. wrote:
Gold will decrease this month, possibly next month. When we get the job reports for the next few months we will see decreases in manufacturing and obvously the temp jobs. When that happens Gold will rise even faster then its falling. Add in all the phantom money from the stimulus and the 200 billion from tarp that they are going to redirect into the private sector and Gold will rise even faster.[/quote]

I think we are on the second phase of the rise to a bubble. What we are experiencing right now is a sell down due to the treasury auction (which ends today). I suspect once it’s done, gold will start to rise again, most likely starting next week. This has happened every month.

[quote]Meatros wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:
Gold will decrease this month, possibly next month. When we get the job reports for the next few months we will see decreases in manufacturing and obvously the temp jobs. When that happens Gold will rise even faster then its falling. Add in all the phantom money from the stimulus and the 200 billion from tarp that they are going to redirect into the private sector and Gold will rise even faster.[/quote]

I think we are on the second phase of the rise to a bubble. What we are experiencing right now is a sell down due to the treasury auction (which ends today). I suspect once it’s done, gold will start to rise again, most likely starting next week. This has happened every month.[/quote]

If gold is a bubble it is just getting started. The general public really isn’t into it yet.

[quote]John S. wrote:

If gold is a bubble it is just getting started. The general public really isn’t into it yet. [/quote]

It is a bubble. The general public is starting to catch on to it. I am getting asked questions by everyone about what I think will happen to gold, so I am not sure people are starting to put money in but they are definitely aware of what it is doing. Just by the fact we have had two threads talking about it on here, is a clue that people are aware.

So lets say I am right and theoretically gold is in a bubble, I am wondering what the top is? I have stopped trying to time markets I always called tops too soon and felt the pain. I think when the FED raises interest rates the dollar will rise and gold will stabilize. If we have real economic (not government fueled) growth gold will fall. This will happen eventually.

[quote]BigJawnMize wrote:

[quote]John S. wrote:

If gold is a bubble it is just getting started. The general public really isn’t into it yet. [/quote]

It is a bubble. The general public is starting to catch on to it. I am getting asked questions by everyone about what I think will happen to gold, so I am not sure people are starting to put money in but they are definitely aware of what it is doing. Just by the fact we have had two threads talking about it on here, is a clue that people are aware.

So lets say I am right and theoretically gold is in a bubble, I am wondering what the top is? I have stopped trying to time markets I always called tops too soon and felt the pain. I think when the FED raises interest rates the dollar will rise and gold will stabilize. If we have real economic (not government fueled) growth gold will fall. This will happen eventually.[/quote]

Well just remember next year 590 billion dollars will be injected into the economy via the stimulus, and it looks like 200 billion will be injected via tarp. Gold is going to go a lot higher.