T Nation

The Economy Thread

Okay lets see how this goes… too many threads about religion on the top half of this forum. This thread is for anything related to money and the economy. I don’t have any agenda here except a place to post information and see where it goes.

Major bank downgrades

Wealth inequality

The economy is bad.

CS

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

Is the economy bad, or is it just not as good as we have come to expect?

[quote]NAUn wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

Is the economy bad, or is it just not as good as we have come to expect?[/quote]
Neither.
“The Economy” just IS.
Good or bad depends on who’s perspective you’re referring to.

Many people create good incomes for themselves and accumulate assets in bad economies, regardless of what the news, pundits and Wall Street have to say.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/fed-helps-borrowers-savers-clobbered-040135030.html

I found this very interesting.

The current policy should be causing hyper-inflation, and the lack of investment income on low risk savings shouldn’t be able to keep up.

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/cpi.nr0.htm

Take out energy, and well… It isn’t too bad, but that is only the last 7 months.

If you take the data back to fall 2009 winter 2009, where are we? Up 4% or so from December 2008 to December 2011, unless I’m reading this wrong.

ftp://ftp.bls.gov/pub/special.requests/cpi/cpiai.txt

So, in short, the government is still pushing leverage. For those unaware, too much leverage is why the economic colapse happened, and why we are stagnating.

Borrowing puts the earnings in the banking sector, and takes them away from the borrowing sector when there isn’t any “safe” investments that will earn more than you pay in interest. Now that the market is back up to pre-2008 levels, the returns will normalize, and short term gains are subject to higher tax rates and not a safe bet…

So, what the hell do you borrow for if you have the cash? And if you don’t have the cash, you better be damn sure you are going to get returns, which aren’t plentyful right now…

Stagnation man, stagnation.

The economy is bad and I want President Obama to keep his word:

“Look, if I can’t turn the economy around in three years, I will be looking at a one-term proposition.”

Candidate Obama

[quote]ZEB wrote:
The economy is bad and I want President Obama to keep his word:

“Look, if I can’t turn the economy around in three years, I will be looking at a one-term proposition.”

Candidate Obama[/quote]

Why would he stop lying now, lol?

Dude is a clown.

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/lacker-says-fed-stimulus-wont-113632491.html

haha…

Basically what I just said.

The fact that QE1 & 2 haven’t pushed inflation beyond the 2% stated in the article is a major problem, IMO.

The economy is in rough shape, lol. Holy shit.

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

My economy is pretty darn good.

When the government starts complaining about the economy it is only because they are running out of our money to spend and they need to invent new ways to take more of it from us.

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

My economy is pretty darn good.[/quote]

right, right…

For every client I have that is “pretty darn good” I have at least two who are pretty darn not good.

One individual does not a whole make.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

My economy is pretty darn good.[/quote]

right, right…

For every client I have that is “pretty darn good” I have at least two who are pretty darn not good.

One individual does not a whole make.
[/quote]

Where one draws the boundaries is important when discussing the “health of the economy”. There really is no such thing as “the economy” but rather billions of individual interacting economies.

Government statistics aside, for every two of your three clients you say “are pretty darn not good” but you must admit that even those not doing so well have differing economic circumstances, no?

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

My economy is pretty darn good.[/quote]

Don’t you live in Germany?

CS

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

My economy is pretty darn good.[/quote]

Don’t you live in Germany?

CS[/quote]

???

“My economy” only refers to my own productive capacity (income) versus my current consumption (spending).

LIFTI’s got the right idea. Best advise I ever got (and eventually decided to follow)was ‘always live below your means’. You’ll get a pile of money in no time.

A really good red-blooded republican can be prosperous regardless of what the flippin’ economy is doing.

[quote]Sweet Revenge wrote:
LIFTI’s got the right idea. Best advise I ever got (and eventually decided to follow)was ‘always live below your means’. You’ll get a pile of money in no time.

A really good red-blooded republican can be prosperous regardless of what the flippin’ economy is doing.[/quote]

I know way too many people who are dumb with their money regardless of income level.

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:

[quote]countingbeans wrote:

[quote]LIFTICVSMAXIMVS wrote:

[quote]CSEagles1694 wrote:
The economy is bad.

CS[/quote]

My economy is pretty darn good.[/quote]

right, right…

For every client I have that is “pretty darn good” I have at least two who are pretty darn not good.

One individual does not a whole make.
[/quote]

Where one draws the boundaries is important when discussing the “health of the economy”. There really is no such thing as “the economy” but rather billions of individual interacting economies.

Government statistics aside, for every two of your three clients you say “are pretty darn not good” but you must admit that even those not doing so well have differing economic circumstances, no?[/quote]

Absolutely. I agree with both your points. But if we were to discuss it in those terms… Not sure where the thread would go.

I have clients in same industries that are on the opposite sides of the coin. Dude who brokers rentals is making a killing, while a woman doing the same but in sales is starving.

I would say that construction is pretty stagnant just about everywhere in Mass. Even the muni and state work is drying up soon. A lot of the construction guys going under now are people that fought to stay alive through 2009 and time just caught up with them.

Home renovation isn’t great, but seems to be picking up, just slow as fuck. With the rash of refi’s looks like some people have a bit more $ to put in their homes. But with the stock market wavering and people’s 401k’s moving up and down with it, who knows if they will continue to spend.

One thing that seems to be consistent with everyone is the general sense of panic seems to either have faded or they hide it better. A 250 point drop in the DOW doesn’t send people into a total tail spin anymore.

[quote]sufiandy wrote:

[quote]Sweet Revenge wrote:
LIFTI’s got the right idea. Best advise I ever got (and eventually decided to follow)was ‘always live below your means’. You’ll get a pile of money in no time.

A really good red-blooded republican can be prosperous regardless of what the flippin’ economy is doing.[/quote]

I know way too many people who are dumb with their money regardless of income level.[/quote]

Most people are.

You wouldn’t believe how fucking broke a lot of people you think are rich truly are are. People with 5mil of distributions that don’t have the cash to pay their 500k tax bill. (Sometimes this is because the money is tied up else where, but not in the case I’m talking about.)

People are addicted to debt. How they sleep at night is beyond me.

[quote]countingbeans wrote:
One thing that seems to be consistent with everyone is the general sense of panic seems to either have faded or they hide it better. A 250 point drop in the DOW doesn’t send people into a total tail spin anymore.[/quote]

The panic was made by the financial sector so they would get bailed out.

Don’t look for any more panicking until their trough runs dry.