There has been quite a bit of discussion on a few of the threads concerning reinstating conscription. The majority of the Bush supporters (and a few of the non-supporters) agree that a draft is not going to happen. Then, there are a few that seem to find it inevitable.
Before I make any statements, let me first say that I do not believe a draft reinstation would be an option within the next three years. That being said, I certainly do not think that reinstation is a ridiculous prospect. Here’s why:
Most of the arguments against a draft have been based upon the unpopularity of such an action. No one wants it, thus we will not have it. This is a bit of flawed logic. I cannot recall any draft that was popular–that is why it involuntary service. Let’s look at a few factors that are menacing our current voluntary service:
-Extended oversea tours are causing retention rates to plummet. Yes, we have a huge military, but numbers are falling, and there is no way of determining future retentions.
-Escalating tensions in other countries are going to eventually demand an increase in troops stationed there. Period.
-Who is to say that another large-scale terror event is unlikely? All it will take is one, even one of a fraction of the magnitude of 9/11, and military allocations and concentrations will have to change. This means more troops in more places.
-Since a large portion of our national guard is currently deployed overseas, any significant attacks on our mainland would probably show our homeland troops to be insufficient. If there was to be a draft, I would imagine the plurality of stationing to be within the U.S.
Like I said before, a draft is most unlikely, assuming we can mobilize some troops out of the Middle East soon. However, I certainly would not consider it to be a horribly far-fetched possibility. This is not, as many will probably assume, a partisan issue. Draft initiative would be similar in probability under any administration, considering our present situation. Hopefully, however, more peaceful overtakings will occur, and our many of our troops can come home from the Middle East. They have our unwaivering support.