T Nation

The Brexit Effect


#142

The same? Probably not, but they have significantly more leverage than Norway. The EU needs the inflows.

Leaders say things all the time, but at the end of the day the EU will make concessions to the 5th largest economy, imo.


#143

What makes you say this? From what I’ve read they don’t have the votes to leave.


#144

Except for the fact, you know, the EU needs the UK’s money and economic power if it has any hope of sustaining itself.

This notion that business people stop being business people because “feelings” is academic horse shit. There is zero incentive for the EU to “punish” the UK in any way in which you, and they have implied.

There will be plenty of shit talking on all the sides, but end of the day, who’s making coin will win out. Pretending I’m wrong about this very basic fact of human nature is all well and good, but not sound ground to base assumptions on.

Yeah, god forbid the citizens of the UK celebrate…

Jesus with this.

No, it won’t. The only way US “influence” diminishes is if we stop funding their collective defense.

Says the kid who has zero actual experience in either.

Look, you lack the basic and fundamental respect for the power of human greed. I get it. You’re still very young, and most people don’t get it until they get older and weather the storms of life.

Economic research used to predict is notoriously bad at being accurate.

What isn’t bad at being accurate? Not underestimating the desire of mankind to prosper and survive. Based on half the shit you’ve written it would make the notion that a tiny island in the Atlantic would never be the empire it once was…

One of three countries in the union actually funding the dumpsterfire?

Yeah, super weak.

NATO, NATO, NATO

Aside from the fact I doubt the Welfare Queens in Scotland are interested in risking security in an attempt to jump back on the EU tit. Nothing will change other than which country or union the bulk of their transfer payments come from.

I get it, you’re an elitist that thinks common folk shouldn’t have a say in their government or the direction of their future. But unfortunately they do, and they outnumber you.


#145

This.

Butthurt isn’t going to be a strong enough incentive for the entire EU to hasten its inevitable demise.

Are feelings hurt right now? Sure. But it should be noted that people who don’t give a flying fuck about economics when it comes to taxation, government spending, wage manipulation, or any host of other misguided “compassion” through government are suddenly supper concerned with economics and markets.

The collective freakout of the elite globalists is wonderful.


#146

I said I supported his assessments. I did not say I supported his name calling, nor did I say I agree with everything he says… Though we do tend to agree more than disagree.
And while accounting and finance does not necessarily translate to the international level, knowing how money works at it’s basic level is enough to make decent assessments and predictions which is expertise he does have.
Truth is nobody knows what the fallout may really be. But my sense is this is actually worse for the EU than is it the UK.
My prediction is that after all is said and done, trade will remain mostly as open as it is now between the UK and the EU, because, outside the butthurt, it makes fiscal sense to do so.
And they also showed that you can stand up against the EU.

I was living and working in Italy when the EU made it’s first of many ‘social changes’. I don’t remember what the issue was specifically, but I remember that people were none to please about the EU encroaching on their cultures that stretch back many generations.

Europe is nothing like the US. The member states are not states, they are individual countries with individual cultures and micro-cultures in side of micro-cultures. For instance, even in Italy, the northern Italians do not like the southern Italians. The northerners consider themselves ‘better’ and more educated and feel as if the south is living off the prosperity of the north. They do not even look alike. The southern Italians tend to be fairer then their southern counterparts. You wouldn’t tell by looking that a northern Italian is in fact Italian, while the southerners fit our stereotype more. And they don’t, by default, like each other. Now transpose the EU over the top of that legislating social change nobody wants and viola! You have hostility toward the EU. Italy also, did not want to give up their currency in favor of the Euro. They had no choice because the Lira was worthless (2000L = $1).

I felt as though, even back then, that I witnessed the beginning and the end of the EU in one fell swoop. Back then the Euro was (1E = $.75). It was only the rise of the Euro that kept the EU from collapsing into a blackhole nearly after it was created. Member states do not like being told what to do by Brussels, and Brussels did have to back off because the threats of dissolution started early.
Then it kind of lulled into the comfortable tension we have been used to for the past decade, plus.

Then came the immigrants. And then came terrorism. And then came the refugees. And then more terrorism.

That’s what broke the tension and it may be the end of the EU. Not right away, but sooner then you may think.

It’s one thing to see it from here, it’s another to see it from there. The picture is a lot different when you see it from their eyes.


#147

Oh cool! I didn’t know you were in finance as well…
I agree that the wealth distribution that inevitably comes from being apart of something like the EU brings, drags on the bigger economies with in. And that pisses those economies off. The UK was not the first country to threat leaving. Germany was ringing that bell not to long ago even though it was a more hollow threat. I don’t know that they were the first, but I know they talked about it at least briefly.

I don’t know that the EU could ever be better than ‘fine’. You have the smaller economies clamoring to join because it raises the level of the water in their pool, even if it lowers the water in the collective pool.

I agree the UK will be fine. And I am proud of the people initiating a massive change like that by the power of the vote. No armies, no war, a ballot and …FREEEDOM! (cue Braveheart).

I don’t think Scotland will secede. The logistics of that are WAY more complicated than the UK leaving the EU. Scotland hasn’t been a separate country since the 18th century. They have no army of their own. If they do it’s very small. Everything about them is intertwined with England. And all of England’s known nuclear arsenal is in Scotland. That divorce would be a very ugly one. One that could actually leave some in Scotland in poverty and despair. Northern Ireland could vote to join Ireland, save for the fact they hate each other’s guts. Wales? I don’t see them leaving. They really have nothing to offer as a separate nation.

So when the dust settles, I think the UK will be just fine. I am not so sure the EU will survive… Europe will, the EU? Who knows. I give it 50/50.


#148

If the UK is diminished without an increasingly protectionist trading block, I say bring on the diminishment.

I will not support a stagnant trading block, with an absurd economic policy, just so the US has a proxy at a block it would never join.


#149

What a dumb bitch. Is that really how an interview is supposed to be conducted?


#150

Some of the worst examples of journalism (or attempts) at it in recent times. She is either too stupid, or she is too married to her own partisan fanaticism to understand him.

All of these political geeks are so locked into their own bubble, they still don’t understand what this was really about. Oh and the market doesn’t seem think it was such a bad idea either.


#151

Czech-ing out ?


#152

Austrian Presidential results are being annulled too. If the guy who lost wins, he has vowed to do the same.


#153

Now that the market is looking more optimistic after the UK departure, maybe more countries would be open to leaving the EU.


#154

When have liberals ever really believed in democracy? They spend amazing energy trying to get laws passed by a vote of the people thrown out by doctoral courts, And trying to get states and nation punished because the people in those nations voted in a way they do not like


#155

No. Zeman is a senile weirdo on Putin’s payroll who just spews Russian propaganda.

Czech’s aren’t going to leave the EU. Nor Poland, nor any other Eastern European country.

Why? Russia, that’s why. Yes, the non-democratic EU is bad, the EU faceless bureaucracy is horrible - but for countries inconveniently situated one has to choose the lesser evil.

And no matter what the alternative is, Russia is ALWAYS the greater evil.


#156

Poland is the largest net recipient of EU funds in the last 10 years - EU money kept their GDP growth rates relatively high and had a dramatic effect on their standard of living.

Also, Poland benefited greatly from EU free movement of goods and persons and millions of Poles work in other EU counties and (oh, the irony) UK.

Also, as I’ve written in my previous post, Russia.

Actually, Brexit is a disaster for smaller EU countries. Cameron for all his faults had a coherent vision of the EU, backed by Eastern Europe countries - an union of sovereign nation states benefiting from free movement and free trade.

Without the corrective factor of the UK who was also used as conduit for NATO aligned policies inside the EU, things are much bleaker.

Now we are at the mercy of Brussels and chancellor Merkel. Not good, to say the least.


#157

I am very surprised to hear that actually.

That is more what I figured.


#158

Even as a corrective force, it was apparently extremely difficult to even remove “ever closer union” for the UK.

I would be much more positive. If anything could change the EU for the better, our departure could.


#159

This “interview” by amanpour was a fucking disgrace to journalism. Since when is it ok for a journalist to shout down the subject of her interview. She deserves to be fired.

If she wants to be a political pundit, the she should go for it. But she is no journalist, not even a thinly disguised one.


#160

Cant find stupid thread,


#161

Tories smashed Labor and UKIP in local elections last night & Macron way ahead of Le Pen.

Could Brexit be halted and voided?
Has “___exit” been shut down for the time regarding other possible countries?


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