T Nation

The Brexit Effect


#122

I think it works relatively well. It’s not perfect by any stretch, though.

Good point.


#123

No way the French leave. They’re a ticking economic time bomb.


#124

Well then…


#125

I mean, it did give up some sovereignty much like Texas. It’s not the same thing, but it’s pretty similar.


#126

I meant that as a joke-I’m not sure that our version of government is working better than the EU. Is a marriage in which one spouse doesn’t permit the other to leave(this is hypothetical-we’ll have to imagine that no one else was willing or around to step in and punish the non-consenting spouse or grant the divorce) better than one in which divorce occurs?

Perhaps, if the rest of the EU had gotten together and forced England to stay for 15 or 20 or 100years(have to remember how long England has been around), it would work just as well or better than the U.S. in a few generations.


#127

#128

So what will the pearl clutchers faint about now ?


#129

Mexico president urges North American integration after Brexit

https://www.yahoo.com/news/mexico-president-urges-north-american-integration-brexit-200300558.html


#130

1 Soros proclaims Pound, stocks, and economy will collapse if UK votes leave
2 Markets tank
3 After vote - Soros proclaims UK will probably do better in long run than EU
4 Markets erase loss

haha Fixed Markets are Fixed


#131

He’s been shorting the pending global economic depression coming for a couple months now.

He’s one of a handful of people that could actually crash the market in an afternoon if he made too many moves in one direction. So when he speaks, people listen and react.

He may be an old, ruthless, soulless, Nazi of a man, but he isn’t stupid.


#132

This I guess.

Sprinkles in a touch of republic hate, “yuoz da racist” and leftist superiority complex


#133

You and I are on the same wavelength.
:relaxed:


#134

I think people have woken up to the bullshit, that gubment is bought and paid for, and they hide behind the shield or accusing racism. People are neither blind or ignorant. People can see how their quality of life has deteriorated, while Elites get richer. I am starting to think we maybe coming to a tipping point.

I knew this day would come, I just wondered when.


#135

#136

Well, economics, money, finances is what Beans does. I trust his assessments.

Economically, after the butthurt by EU eases away, I think it will be mostly business as usual between the UK and the EU. There may be some outliers, but having more control over their economy and their borders is something that they will overall be pleased about.

I think is shows people don’t want globalization, they want home. And they want home to be home they way they are familiar with. That’s just human. It’s a very basic primal instinct.
A little mix in the cake adds flavor, to much ruins it.

The UK didn’t decide because of economics, they decided that their southern most border wasn’t a porous weak border, bound up next to the most dangerous region in the entire world. Now their southern border can go back to being the Cliffs of Dover.


#137

Germany exiting EU?


#138

Even if we accept the above as true, do you believe that the UK will have the same free access to the rich markets of the EU as it did when it was still a member without submitting to some of the same rules and regulations it did when it was not a free-rider? The EU will not accept a Britain that wants to have its cake and eat it too, and its leaders have said as much.


#139

You’re not following my argument. Brexit isn’t the end of the world (or the UK), but no one has a cause to celebrate it but the West’s adversaries.

Brexit will be bad for the UK’s economy.

US influence in the EU will diminish if the UK goes through with Brexit. Without a tempering voice at the table, transatlanticism will suffer.

While its economy will get a black eye, Britain will be ok economically. The political and strategic consequences, however, will be deep and lasting. It will become a question of when and not if when Scotland leaves the UK. Britain will lose its base for its vanguard class submarines, which establish its trident nuclear deterence. 60% of its combat squadrons will have to move away from a strategically vital area. It’s vitally important early detection radar systems will also be lost. It will lose a division of soldiers. All these losses will carry a steep price tag. In addition to the material losses and setbacks, Britain will continue to become more withdrawn from the world as it wrestles over internal economic and political quandaries.


#140

International economics is not accounting or finance, and expertise in one area does not carry over to another. For all his name calling, his posts have not been based on an iota of what decades of research in international political economy show.

“Britain was already in a weak negotiating position”

“Britain will have a tough time getting an attractive exit deal from the E.U”

See my post above.


#141

It’s what I do too…

I’m interested to see how the EU/Japan trade talks end up as I think the UK will be able to strike a similar deal. I agree with Beans that economically speaking the UK will ultimately be fine.

The more I’ve read the more I think the timing is damn near perfect for the UK really. The EU is in rough shape especially with Italy’s GDP/debt at something like 130%. France is also in rough shape. The EU will need the inflows from the UK. I also don’t think the UK will split up so some of the strategic implications are not as likely as I originally thought.

At any rate, the next couple of years will be interesting.