T Nation

The Brexit Effect


#82

It’s similar to 2014, when Obama and Democrats got pummeled in the midterms. Bam bitched about the low turnout, he didn’t give them reason to turn out.


#83

Because the world economy is on the fast track “forward”. Just so happens “forward” is right off a cliff.

We need a downturn, and a seriously debilitating one, because we’ve tried to keep covering up and “fixing” all the small ones that have come up.

We literally need a global depression in order to get the economy healthy again. [quote=“Ironwarrior25, post:61, topic:218846”]
now we do have complete freedom. I guess most of my views come from an economic standpoint.
[/quote]

Economics will work out fine, and are a short term issue.

Freedom is lasting. [quote=“Legalsteel, post:74, topic:218846, full:true”]
Also, as the contrarian I am, I enjoy how many liberals are going through the seven stages of grief at the minute.

Crying into their muesli, concerned about whether the prices of lattes will go up.
[/quote]

lol. These people hate freedom, the word “liberal” has been co-opted and destroyed.

It’s like 1984[quote=“Legalsteel, post:76, topic:218846, full:true”]
What annoys me more is the remainers complaining that the youth were not heard. Yeah, well, if 50% of the youth won’t turn out to vote, I have one thing to say to that:

Tough titties. You don’t get to demand a minority veto to a plebiscite. Pardon my french, but go and fuck yourselves.
[/quote]

Same people will declare “democracy” as the best system, until they are the sheep, being voted on to be eaten by the 3 wolves.


#84

Ehh

“Schulz: “The British have violated the rules. It is not the EU philosophy that the crowd can decide its fate”.”

From:

That’s fucked up man. And a lot more than minimal sovereignty


#85

It seemed to me the EU liked to think they were in control but most every time they tried to impose over Britain’s legal system it didn’t work out for them. While a “Free Britain” may make for a nice headline I still think this was more a reflection on protectionist economic policy and isolationist immigration policy. Protectionism seems to be sweeping over the western world right now, that’s the only reason I’m hesitant to celebrate for the British.


#86

Brexit will prove to be detrimental to the interests of the United States, the European Union, and, above all, the United Kingdom. Without Britain’s having a seat at the table, the US will have less influence in the EU. While the UK may recover somewhat economically, it will forfeit the full extent of the enormous trade benefits it enjoys with EU member states. In addition, Britain will no longer be a party to the international trade treaties negotiated by the EU.

The political and strategic losses, however, will be both deep and lasting. Liberal economic and collective security regimes have been the foundation of the American made post-war era. Britain’s exit from the institution may be a harbinger to the disintegration of a the EU, an unprecedented source of peace and prosperity for a continent that was once synonymous with power politics. Brexit will be prove to be a geopolitical windfall for an expansionist and revanchist Russia. Scotland, which held its own referendum to leave the UK not too long ago, will soon have another vote. This time around, it will be a question of when, not if, Scotland will leave the UK. This will mean farewell to Faslane naval base, home to Briton’s vanguard class submarines, which maintain its trident nuclear deterrent. 3 out of 5 of the RAF’s combat squadrons are also located in Scotland. In addition, Britain’s strategically vital early-warning radar systems lie to the north. It will be difficult to maintain the E.U. Common Security and Defence Policy. Improving it will be even more difficult.

Overall, the myopic decision to leave the EU will prove to be source of extreme instability and uncertainty for the EU, NATO, and the international economy. We aren’t witnessing a county asserting its [misplaced sense of] sovereignty against out of touch elitists, but an erstwhile great power that already began to abandon its historic role as an influential offshore balancer committing geopolitical suicide based on archaic protectionism and isolationism. The same people cheering this outcome in the US are the same that believe the US would be better off without participation in the UN, WTO, or NATO.


#87

I found this interesting.


#88

lmao… Yeah.

I’m sure the UK is going to end up a third world shit hole because it doesn’t help fund the bloated welfare states of the rest of the EU anymore.

Your entire post is devoid of the reality that money talks and bullshit walks. The EU needs the UK, and the UK will still enjoy the vast majority of the economic benefits of the EU, except have control of it’s borders and final say in its laws and regulations.

This whole chicken little sky is falling drone by the political left is both hilarious and embarrassing at the same time. ZOMG, people have freedom, the world is going to end as we know it !!!11!!1!!!


#89

At least you didn’t play the race card the way most of the Left is on this issue. Things will be unstable for awhile, but that will level off, and life will continue.

You speak as if an asteroid is coming, and Bruce Willis is our only hope.


#90

Something like half the United Kingdom’s laws are unchangeable / difficult to modify due to the EU.

Start with the very basic question: Who will have your country’s interest most at heart? The people in your country or the people in another country (Belgium) ?


#91

I think your post is mostly overly pessimistic. Yes, this is exactly what we are witnessing. Britain opposed 72 economic measures against the EU and went 0-72. All of them against Britain and more than that they’re unchangeable as long as Britain remains in the EU. That’s just the tip of the iceberg.

Britain is the world’s 5th largest economy. They now have more flexibility in how they pursue trade deals and who they pursue them with rather than being leashed by the EU. Furthermore, IF they play their cards right (which is not guaranteed), they will still have the EU playing friendly with them. The EU needs Britain’s money, and it is in their best interests to keep the open door friendly during the exit. Finally they have an individual voice at the WTO now.

The forces working on tearing the EU apart may pick up steam but it is not at all for certain that the UK’s economy is in a downward spiral. Anybody who has any experience with business knows that as one door closes, others open up if you have the ability to look for opportunities.


#92

This is what I’ve been saying about it. It remains to be seen what will happen economically but, whatever happens, it will be in the hands of the people it’s happening to. Good or bad, they write their own future.


#93

Smug mofo. lmao… Damn


#94

The Common Market that Britain was originally conned into joining with the lie that it would never become the EU was never a good deal for Britain. Part of the deal to join was Britain had to turn it’s back on the trade block it already was in, the British Commonwealth.

The Common Market was a trade block of developed industrial economies that all made the same things and had very little to offer each other as far as demand goes. The Commonwealth had developing economies and raw material suppliers that created demand in Britain for it’s manufactured goods.

The biggest industrial loss that happened during the last forty years was the death of the British automobile industry. It is a stark testimony to how British industry was fucked that Britain has the worlds best automotive engineers but no automobile companies, while Germany has the worlds largest automobile company, Volkswagen, Daimler, BMW, Italy has Fiat and Renault has Renault.

China and Japan devalue their currency to help their exports. The whole reason why Germany tolerates Greece in the Euro is Greeks keep their currency depressed so the Germans can keep exporting manufactured goods. Devaluing the pound would help Britain with it’s balance of payments which right now massively favors the EU.


#95

The…double middle finger, mic drop of the year.


#96

There’s nothing like the Brits for artful ways of verbally giving the finger to anybody who has gotten on their bad side


#97

I saw this on Facebook last night and shared it with my sad, weird, suicidal, lefty British friends. Boo hoo.

As for myself, I nearly pulled my larynx repeating yes so many times as I watched it.

Good show.


#98

This…

This is what I have been in awe about. When have we ever seen such a major change without amassing armies to get the change. Whatever the effect, this is a major win for democracy itself. We can make major changes with a vote. That’s a beautiful thing.


#99

Read my post again.

“Money talks and bullshit walks” is about as reductionist as discussions of global economics get. Your post is entirely devoid of the reality of international political economy, whose literature indicates that:

“Britain was already in a weak negotiating position”

“Britain will have a tough time getting an attractive exit deal from the E.U”

“The E.U. will be very different without Britain”

This [(Brexit)] has implications for other international cooperation

The myth of a better deal holds that Britian will somehow be able to magically maintain or even improve upon the enormous economic benefits it derived from membership in the EU while no longer contributing to the international organization. Rest assured the constituent states of the EU (Germany chief among them) will not allow a free riding UK to have its cake and eat it too.

P.S., you (along with the be posters who echoed your sentiments) completely side stepped what I wrote regarding the deep and lasting political and strategic losses that Brexit will incur, which I wrote much more on than the economic losses. Brexit will prove detrimental to Britain, the United States, and Europe while it will benefit a revanchist Russia.


#100

European leaders have stated that the best deal they could offer Britain would be akin to Norway’s relationship with the EU. A non-EU member, Norway must comply with most EU regulations and rules in order to access the lucrative markets of the international organization. Most relevantly, Norway must allow the free movement of labor between its territory and that of EU states, which flies in the face of a core goal of the Leave campaign.

The road to WTO membership will hardly be a cheap affair:


#101

Britain has more leverage than Norway and will be able to achieve a better trade deal.

At any rate, I am torn. I agree with some of what you’ve said and some of what Bean’s has said. The implications of Brexit are not easy to project.