T Nation

Stock Market Thread II


#1

We've seen quite the run over the last six months. I think it's time to have another one of these. Here's the last two, it's kind of interesting to reread the thread and see how some of use faired:

http://tnation.tmuscle.com/free_online_forum/world_news_war/best_stocks_to_purchase_and_hold?id=2858328&pageNo=1

http://tnation.tmuscle.com/free_online_forum/world_news_war/the_stock_market_thread

So let's hear it, what are your picks?

I was very bullish earlier this year and it has paid off greatly with a 150% return year to date, but my optimism has faded. I am in the process of converting to a heavy bond portfolio with my retirement accounts, as I just don't see much potential for growth with our current administration. What we have seen this year was mostly just another correction after the over correction last fall. The potential for another slide is too great for me to keep much in stocks.

As for my taxable accounts, I am content with my current holdings but don't see much growth and am not the type to hold just for the dividends, as I am also trying to expand my real estate portfolio and/or start/buy a business.

Anybody have a diamond in the rough? Or at least a stock they feel confident will gain 10% or more in the next year?


#2

Cash. Given that all of the financial advisors are pumping corporate bonds from outfits like PIMCO also, I'd avoid those like the plague too.

The best money I made was the money I didn't lose. I bought some ATT, but that went lower and didn't recover.

Profits are down 30-40% across the board. Once people realize that, they'll wonder why the stock market went up at all. Once they wonder that, it will go back down. I'd take profits right now if I were you.


#3

I'm still pulling hard for Ford. Bought at $1.50 now it hovers around $7 and within a few years should be up in the $40+ range.

My other choices is to buy Dollar General when their stock hits the market in the next few weeks. They are making a fucking killing and I want to get a piece of that action.

A few ETFs and real estate funds have my interest peaked but other than that Harley Davidson is the only other specific stock I'd recommend. I've had HOG for almost 2 decades and during this time they've had a 2 for 1 split at least 3 times. I think I'm up roughly 1600% at roughly an 80% increase each year. This is mainly attributed to the few awesome years and the rest of the years I've held it just being a modest return.

Anywho, buy all the market up while this shit is cheap.


#4

You could take a look at the reverse and double reverse ETF's. SDS for the S&P. QID for the Nas 100. Be careful though. Double ETF's are tricky in that they are designed to mimic an index over the course of one day, not over the course of extended time. Therefore you have slippage. They might be better for day trading. The single ETF's, DIA, SPY, QQQQ, mimic over the long haul and don't have slippage.

Look up Bear Spreads if you think the market will go down (as I do). Limited downside while still employing leverage.

Of course all of this is said with the speculative portion of your portfolio in mind. In the end, I agree with PRCaldude. I believe this is a bear market rally that is "long in the tooth." The safest place to be right now is in cash.


#5

Things I am investing in:

International mutual funds, particularly with a lot of Asian market exposure. In the next 5-10 years China, Japan, etc. are going to out perform the US stock market hands down.

Mutual funds with precious metal and mineral exposure. With all the money that is being printed these assets are bound to increase in value.

Energy mutual funds or ETFs. As the world economies start to recover gas, oil, electricity, etc prices are going to start rising again.

Stay out of the US stock market as the pain isn't over yet. If all this government stimulus continues, we are going to see big inflation. Once the stimulus stops or we just can't afford it anymore housing sales will drop, cars sales will drop, sales in general will drop, well you get the picture.