[quote]countingbeans wrote:
[quote]Headhunter wrote:
[quote]Bill Roberts wrote:
If one takes the Clinton-era bubble as being an anomaly that likely won’t be repeated anytime soon, then no time in the last 70 years has the P/E ratio been much higher than presently.
And if you exclude the peak of the Roaring 20’s, then it’s never been much higher than presently, and usually lower.
With regard to future earnings – which are ultimately, other than the possibility of sale for assets, what yields return on the investment – there is a political party in power that favors higher corporate taxation, higher costs of employing persons, things such as carbon taxes, and higher taxation of capital gains and dividends.
Thus giving reason to expect less cash in the pocket from each share of stock owned.
If the reverse were true, then I’d have an expectation of stock values rising, even after inflation.[/quote]
I’m leaning this way, because the PE IS historically pretty high. Wanted to get a consensus. It seems that waiting for a PE of 12 or so greatly increases the odds in my favor.
I got into gold heavily at $270 (metals and the stocks), btw. Been thinking of just slightly reducing our position and going to TIPS.[/quote]
I guess I’m somewhat shocked you would buy into our government.
It really is your generation that is taking it in the ass with this meltdown.
EDIT:
CPI (as of October) was still down from last year though. We are up from 2007 less than 3% but pretty much flat from 2008.[/quote]
Gold has had a great run and the dollar has been beaten up pretty bad. Being long the dollar in TIPS wouldn’t be too bad, IMHO.
Its also kind of the case of: “What do I do with the money NOW?” Nothing stands out except perhaps agri-business.