T Nation

Stock Bulls And Bears


#1

I got the investing bug big time. I'm absorbing everything of relevance like a sponge just like I did when I first got into weightlifting - and I did that very well.

If you're in stocks throw out there. This is not an advice forum, it's just a spot to show off what you got and why it flies:

UNH - United Health Services: Medicare reform legislation passed in 2003 is starting to kick in and provides drug coverage to the baby boom generation, a very large customer base. Companies like UNH and Aetna will provide that coverage and receive per-member government subsidies as well as monthly premiums paid by the member. UNH is the only publicly traded player present in all 50 states offering that coverage, it is the biggest player and it just got bigger after acquiring one of the big competitors in the medicare arena - Pacificare - for 10 Billion dollars. It's P/E isn't as low as you'd like but you pay up for top quality and growth - and UNH has the best growth prospects in its sector. It has more current liabilities than current assets, but strong cash flow... and the best growth prospects in its sector. I think it goes up!

BA - Boeing: The aerospace sector is in a big upward trend, and Boeing has already received big order from China for 70 planes and the United Arab Emirates among others. Its does have more current liabilities than assets, but with good positive cash flow, and did I mention a big upward trend in the Aerospace sector? Even with a slashed defense sector I think Boeing goes up.

AMTD - Ameritrade: Online brokerages are seeing increased demand as more individual investors flock into the market. It is less vulnerable to the fed interest rates, but even the Feds seem almost done with the rate hikes. ALl the financials are up big over the past month and taking a breather. Over the next year I think Ameritrade goes higher, just like all other financials, as the Feds signal they're nearly done with the rate hikes.

NBR - Nabors Industries: Energy crunch need I say more? With the Oil and Gas shock we've seen this past year, along with HUGE profits in the industry, new drilling and exploration efforts will be ramped up - and that's what Nabors does. They've locked in contracts through 2007 - according to thestreet.com, so don't quote me on that - at today's high prices. As temperatures finally cool down in the Northeast - which uses 80% of heating oil in the US - Oil and Driller stocks are bound to jump up, just as they have this week.

TM - Toyota Motors: They will be chomping down on GM's market share this coming years. It is a big play on energy sky-high prices, as they're one of the more successful hybrid vehicle manufaturers. No stock here, just 3 Jan. Calls. Laugh all you want, I'll be taking the last laugh when my Toyota calls are up a couple bucks by Jan 21! This is my first play in Options, and I think I could've done better doing my research, but ultimately I think I will be right.

Got stocks? Options? Bonds? Mutual Funds? Hedge Funds? A penny piggy? Add your stuff down below!


#2

CHK - Chesapeake Energy
UNH - United Health
IBN - Icici Bank (an Indian Bank)
AAPL - Apple Computer
TIE - Titanium Metals
ELN - Elan Corp (a drug company)

Just sold CKCM - Click Commerce ~2 weeks ago.


#3

You want to know all my holdings??? Damn, that would take too long...but my portfolio darlings are:

QCOM (Qualcomm)
AMCC (Applied Micro)
WMB (Williams Cos)
JNPR (Juniper)
MESA (Mesa Airlines)


#4

APPX-American Pharmaceutical Partners on the rise, underbought, nice trough right now.

IMGN- Immunogen underbought, cheap and has nice peaks but bad technical indicators. With a few thousand dollars, you can buy a few thousand shares, looks like it should rise about 60 cents-$1.00/share in the next month. A good one to use a volume multiplier on for a quick hit, but too volatile.

AOB- American Oriental Boiengineering Also may be a good one in the short term,same as IMGN, may take off nicely, but also may not.


#5

PDLI Protein Design
AGI Alliance Gaming
AIG American Insurance General
PNK Pinnacle Entertainment
JPM JP Morgan Chas
RAI Reynolds
WYNN Wynn Las Vegas
LVS Las Vegas Sands
IGT International Gaming Tech
CVX Chevron Texaco
PDX Pediatrix

Vanguard Total Bond Market Index Fund
Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund
Vanguard REIT Index Fund Investor Shares
Vanguard Emerging Markets Stock Index Fund


#6

has someone been watching mr cramer? these are all very good plays. keep an eye out for a pullback on starbucks to get in and watch it steadily climb with its china expansion. 1800 stores in the next 2 years.

also look at nvidia with the launch of PS3 next year as well.

i also like conoco phillips and transocean for my oil/rig plays.

i currently hold Pike electronic (PEC) and starbucks (SBUX)


#7

Diogenes, I'm jealous of your portfolio!
I wish I'd picked up CHK after October's correction - even though there're rumours of a likely sell-off in oil and gas next week as mutual funds take their profits.

I wish I'd spotted TIE LOOONG ago. That stock is friggin phenomenal! Getting in now would give me vertigo, butI'm keeping my eye on another titanium play, RTI.

You gotta remember dude, Aerospace accounts for a lot of titanium consumption and Aerospace is in a big upswing - meaning big time demand for the metal over the coming years.

I can see how the titanium producers might be doing very well over the next year and I'll try to get my hands on the best Titanium producer on the next correction (yeah I like to buy strength on weakness)

Another is Apple. I held for a while until I took my profit at 59 - sounds pretty pathetic does't it? You must have absolutely loved the stock over the past few weeks as it took flight in the 4th quarter rally.

I couldn't bear looking at it any longer as I held onto my Nabors Industries and my Ameritrade and my Boeing and my Microsoft - all of which were doing pretty good... but they weren't going up 4% each day!

Ahhh, but today was Nabors day. Today was Schlumberger day and today was Haliburton day as Oil Drillers took off! NBR up 4.5% baby!

Still, those Toyota Motors Jan calls. Dude, talk about weight hanging over your head! I know ultimately I WILL be right, and 2006 WILL be Toyota's year. The question is, will the big fish see that before Bell-strike on Jan 21?

Another lesson learned, next time buy options that expire FAR-out, not 45 days later! Considering the profit taking we've seen this past week, I think we may just see a decent end to the 4th quarter rally before year end when investors decide to put that money to work and see all the great companies that have been put on sale this past week - companies like Toyota and Bear Stearns (although Financials may need more time to budge).

You got to admit UNH is just a beauty of a company right now though. Sure Aetna is going to benefit from Medicare drug coverage, but we want the best right here - and the best is UNH!

It's good to see some of you are putting your money to work for you - and doing your own homework!


#8

Trailer, can you EVEN be in the market and not know about Cramer? I love that guy! He's entertaining, even when he's wrong.

In fact, I must confess, every single one of my stocks have been mentioned in his show. Shameless, I know - but none were bought before I did my own research on them and made sure they agree with me.

I'll tell you this, I'm impressed with the portfolios I'm seeing from the other guys here - pretty diversified with very strong companies. You can't go wrong with the 'Best-Of-Breeds' in the good sectors.

Financials have been dumped over this past week's correction, BUT believe it, they will get their run as we get closer to the Feds end-of-rate-hikes.

I already initiated a position on Ameritrade, which is more aloof to interest rate hikes, but I wish I had more capital to put to work on Goldman Sachs or Lehman Brothers or Bear Stearns. All are expected to report very strong quarters, particularly Goldman Sachs and Lehman Brothers.

Aerospace is another sector I am absolutely loving. Aircraft manufacturers and parts suppliers are bound to do well over the coming year, all other things equal. I am waiting for a chance to get in on Titanium suppliers, which is widely used in aircraft parts - and Aerospace is in an upswing!

I'm not very keen of Defense plays with the government breathing down their necks with budget cuts. Boeing is a defense play but it is mostly an Aerospace play.

I'll probably get a couple options - a few calls with an expiration date no earlier than May or June of next year - just to make sure I don't miss a big upside in some strong companies. I don't have the capital to get in all of them, so deep-in-the-money calls will offer a safe way of ensuring I miss an opportunity here as we enar the Feds end of rate hikes.


#9

Skyzy, do you have any dirt on IMGN? Do they have something up their sleeve which would sent the stock up?
I see how IMGN would be a good speculative play if they have somcething in the works, but looking at their data, I'd have a foot in the door just in case.

They haven't made a penny since 1996 as shown by their perennially negative cash flows, and they are in a difficult and volatile sector (where lawsuits are always a possibility, since these are drug manufacturers).
They do have nearly $100 million in current assets including cash - which is 10x their current liabilities - and they're burning cash at a rate of $6 million per year, which gives them over a decade to get things right.

They look risky as a long-term holding, but if they have something in the works which could cause a lot excitement - like an avian flu vaccine, or terrorim drug play... - then it could send the stock up big time. Just look at Capstone Turbine which went from over a buck to over 6 bucks in 2 months, simply because they manufacture energy-efficient generators which use alternative fuels during a time when Oil was sky-rocketing! The company hasn't made a dime in 5 years!

Speculative plays like that where financials spell impending bad news scares me though, particularly since these small companies don't atract the big bucks of mutual funds and big investors - and because of their small size they're very vulnerable to price manipulations where a few fish pump the price up, get everybody excited and then dump it. Uggh. We saw that in Capstone too where it collapsed back to 2.5 after kissing 6 goodbye, although it trades back at 3.5. Good luck!


#10

I would highly recommend going to fool.com for articles/advice/info on investing. It has some really good information and where I learned a lot of things.


#11

North American natural gas plays are the way to go this winter. But it is very volatile. A 5% haircut on a single day should not be suprising.

Also, be sure to look forward to $3 gas again next summer.

It's all just so transparent..

Oil Execs, Congressional Hearings
http://money.cnn.com/2005/11/09/news/economy/oil_hearing/?cnn=yes
(11-9-05 gas drops to $1.97 Minneapolis/St. Paul. Now $2.25.)

Natural Gas Shut-In in the Gulf
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2005/12/08/AR2005120801166.html

A Cold Winter Ahead
http://news.cincypost.com/apps/pbcs.dll/article?AID=/20051205/BIZ/512050349/1001


#12

GM- shorted this one, with rising gas prices and GM's inablility/inddiference to cope they will lose long term. They may even be bought out in 10 years or so , therefore i should get out while the going is good.

ADM - ARCHER DANIELS MIDLAND - They make agricultural products they also are a big producer of ethanol which is set to be a gasoline substitute soon. As the prices of gas go up so will this stock.

WMT - WALMART - Again as gas prices go up, people will congregate to the stores where they can get everything. They are a growth stock even without this though they just add more and more stores all the time.

Intel- INTC - the next few years are supposedly bumper years for tech.

These are all just from my investopedia play portfolio. Its just for entertainment and im concentrating my portfolio on the assumption that gas prices will go higher and higher which i think wall street hasn't really gotten in their heads yet.


#13

Yup. They make a cancer targetting compound that is used with other cancer fighting drugs to increase their effectiveness. I could pull up a bunch of stuff on it but I'm playing that one on pattern, recent support, stochastic,macd, and ma. With a crappy price pattern, it may not even break the ma.
That aside, it is totaly a pump and dump.Short term only and as soon as it shows signs of dropping, dump it. Its volume has come up slightly since yesterday, and if it behaves as it has in the past on 3 green it should spike a good bit then tapper down.


#14

Since I'm not too good with words, here is the scoop on Immunogen.

Market guide snapshot report:
For the three months ended 30 September 2005, ImmunoGen, Inc.'s revenues decreased 14% to $7.8M. Net loss increased 90% to $4.7M. Revenues reflect an decrease in clinical materials reimbursement and development fees. Higher losses also reflect an increase in R&D expenses and general & administrative expenses. The Company develops, produces and markets commercial anti-cancer and other biopharmaceutical products based on molecular immunology.

Recent release from comtex:

Ridgeland, MS, NOV 16, 2005 (EventX/Knobias.com via COMTEX) -- ImmunoGen, Inc.
(IMGN) announced the presentation of encouraging clinical findings with the
Company's huN901-DM1 Tumor-Activated Prodrug (TAP) compound at the
AACR-NCI-EORTC International Conference on Molecular Targets and Cancer
Therapeutics underway in Philadelphia, PA. As reported, clinical activity seen
with HuN901-DM1 in this study includes a complete remission lasting at least 15
weeks and stable disease lasting up to 18 weeks.


#15

in case anyone cares, here is my IPO pick for early next year.

Chipotle

it is going public on its own and it has a lot of growth potential. i used to live in MD where there are a couple and now i live in PA where there are none. If baltimore has only 1 chipotle and i have never seen ANY in towns like harrisburg and Philly then there is a LOT of room for growth. and those of you who have had the food you know it beats the pants off of baja fresh. it wont beat taco bell for the late night greasy drunk trip but when it comes to lunch chipotle will win hands down.
i have downloaded the prospectus and an reading it now to see how everything stacks up but i do think this will be a good growth story for a couple of years.

and yes, i too like cramer. that guy has helped me understand the market more than anything else. his book is in human terms and his show is a riot!!!


#16

Diogenes, my deep condolences for TIE. I knew it gave me vertigo, and this is why.
Down from an all-time high $78 to a limping 62.31 in after-hours trading. OUCH!!! It sizzles! I didn't want to touch it with 10 ft stick.

You had a very peculiar condition going on in TIE in that it remained overbought for too long. It's almost as if the Profit takers never showed up, waiting for a better shot. Now everybody's rushing out at the same time - and I kind of think thestreet.com's article on profit taking had something to do with it. Sure, TIE had been downgraded a few weeks back, but notice this because it's a bit too much coincidence:

thestreet.com published an article on profit taking at 11:30 this friday.
At the same time, after rushing from aroun 75 to an all time high of roughly 78, profit takers rushed in, and volume nearly trippled by the end of the day - and it all happened at just about 11-12 that friday!

I'd be playing with thestreet.com voodoo dolls, but I still gotta say it WAS overbought for too long, and the stock was TOO extended and in dire need of a healthy correction. Except there is nothing healthy about THIS correction after everybody broke the doors on the way out.

I see nothing going other than profit taking. No headlines, other than the downgrade. Titanium is still going very strong as far as I know, and I'm a bit perked up to whether this is a great buying opportunity right here, just like Apple was a great buying opportunity after crashing on earnings reports, and just like Sandisk deeply corrected after Intel announced plans to compete in Sandisk's arena - both these companies proved emotional profit takers wrong a few days later.

It's interesting to note that the article published DID note there is no reason to dump TIE right here. But it did very strongly encourage profit-taking, and I think all the profit takers that didn't show up over the past month showed up at the same time this week and raked in a few more emotional sellers trying to spare their profit.

Apple is still doing GREAT - and I still wish I'd held onto it - but I have the same vertigo here. It's a growth stock that is very extended, and very very vulnerable to negative speculation and negative reports - as last earnings report showed, even though results WERE pretty good.
That's probably why I kinda veer more towards middle of the road between Value and Growth stocks. I like them a bit undervalued with good earnings growth. I like them to be a 'buyers' choice' but I don't want them to be in the media every day - and nothing freaks me out more than having the hottest stock on wall street. When profit takers come, they don't just come - they gush and fuck you on the way out!

I AM being proven right on my Toyota Motors Calls though, and that is making me very happy! I new buyers had to rush in as profit takers put it up for sale. I just wish I'd been more patient and waited for the stock to come down from being overbought before I got my hands on it.

Also sold UNH on overbought conditions, and was proved right! Bought it righ back today though, even though I think it has more way down before going up. I'm not a daytrader, but I just can't resist skipping a small correction in the stock, and this marks the 4th time I've timed these small peaks right before small, healthy corrections take place! Some stocks - particularly UNH - have very clear stochastic patterns, and once the stochastics reach an overbought condition, it corrects until it becomes very oversold and buyers rush in on the opportunity. These corrections usually cost a few dollars on the way down, which is no biggie, I just like to time them! Another one I bet on is NBR, which is giving very clear oversold conditions and is due for a healthy correction right here.
TIE is showing very oversold conditions right here, along with absolutely NO headlines to justify it, NO change in the Titanium industry, NO bad company news like CFOs and CEOs leaving...zip, nada...and the stock crashes 15-20% in 2 days? As oversold as it is and as strong as the company and industry is, I don't think I'll be able to resist getting my paws on it right here. Good luck though!


#17

VTSS- A semi. stock which has re-invented itself from the $100+ days of the internet bubble to today where it was beaten down to rediculous levels. A good company with huge upside potential in my opinion. Very cheap right now.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?d=t&s=VTSS


#18

I did it, I got some TIE! Me so horny baby, me love you long TIE!
What a great catch that was. I was a bit nervous, but the stock crashed too much for no reason, was very oversold, and it just seemed to be emotional selling. Today is proving me right. Hopefully the long run will do the same.

I straightened up my portfolio. Swallowed my pride and took a big hit by getting rid of my options - jan calls. I simply couldn't take the agony any longer. I will not be trading options again, and do not recommend it unless you're VERY VERY VERY VERY VERY good at it. Even if you do pick some big tripple digit winners, an options portfolio is going to have its share of double and triple digit losers. Some options pros rake in an avg annual return of 12%, not bad but not great.

My new portfolio, designed to do well over the next 12 mos, but prepapred to take some profit:

1.UNH - United Health (health plans)
2.WTR - Aqua America (water utility)
3.BA - Boeing (aerospace and defense)
4.MSFT - Microsoft (tech)
5.TIE - Titanium metals (Basic matls, a play on titanium and aerospace - as aerospace is a huge consumer of titanium and is on a big upswing)

I have my eye on MO with a good 4% dividend and good prospects in the long term; I want to get a financial as we near an end to fed rate hikes - I like Banc of America with its 4.4% dividend; I like Archer Daniels Midland a lot as a defensive play with its food product business and as a strong play in Ethanol's rise. I'll allow no more than 1 extra stock, and ADM will probably it. I like too many stocks, but I can't have too much tech or too much financials, or too much oil. Oh, I will definitely be coming back to pick Nabors back up.


#19

Dude, giving financial advise is alot like giving advise in the gym. You just shouldn't do it. BUT, sometimes in the gym you see a 14 year old doing deadlifts like he's vomiting over the toilet and you can't help but go over and try to straighten him out.

I can't help but try to straighten you out right now. You don't belong in stocks. You don't have the experience. You can't develop a plan and then not bail out when there's a little dip. It's like peeing your pants because you heard a loud noise.

I think you should sell out of everything and put your $ in a good mutual fund. I recommend Hussman Strategic Growth Fund. It wont make you rich over night but it will make you money in bull & bear markets.

In the mean time you can spend a few years managing pretend money (like one of the previous posters) and develop the skills and nerve you need do play this game.

Having said this, I know you won't take my advise. What you will do is continue on this reckless course and in 3 mos or 3 years the market will tank and you will buy all the way down, sell out at the bottom and have losts 80% of your portfolio. I already feel for ya.

Oh yeah, you won't make all that much in the 3 months to 3 years.