Who takes it?
Mauricio didn't look at his best in the Griffin fight. Though, of course, everyone said that when he squeaked by Coleman, and he proceeded to dominate Chuck and give Machida a serious run for his money. His striking is clearly superior, but if Dan wants to close the distance and clinch, Shogun is hitting the floor.
I'm leaning towards Shogun in this. I think if he can come in peaked for this fight he can pick Dan apart and get to his feet when he needs to.
To add to that, Henderson isn't the most cerebral of fighters. He tends to 'fall in love' with his right hand and doesn't mix things up (striking and otherwise). I don't think he will KO Shogun.... but I think he can.