I know I might get thrashed for this, but I'm having really hard time seeing how this could be a close fight if Shogun comes in healthy and 100%.
Lets start with the fighters condition since I already mentioned it. What we don't know is weather Shogun has been able to train 100% and if his knee is okay. Against Machida he was able to go 5 rounds, so no reason to doubt his conditioning for this fight if he has been able to train healthy. What we do know, is that Bones won't be coming in 100%.
Managing the weight cut and recovering from the previous fight is going to make it very difficult for Bones to show up at his full potential, which is really a big minus when one of his biggest weapons is his freakish strength for LHW. Conditioning is not going to be 100% either, no way in hell he is going to be able to train specifically for 5 round fight in the short notice he had. There was a good atricle at MMAJunkie about weather it was a smart move for Bones to accept this fight on such short notice, but can't find it right now.
Bones's biggest strength's are obviously his strength and wrestling. He doesn't have a black belt in BJJ, and as far as I know he hasn't faced any BB's either. He hasn't really faced any strikers the same caliber as Shogun either. Shogun has did display some pretty flashy moves earlier in his carrier as well, so I don't think he is going to have much of an problem with Bones, even though Shogun doesn't have that much time to train for Bones either. Shogun has been training to face a wrestler all this time, Bones trained for Bader and fought Bader, but Shogun is totally different kind of a fighter.
Shoguns standup is arguably the best in 205, and definitely up there among the P4P best strikers in MMA today. Bones is going to have a reach advantage, but Shogun being the master at closing the reach I don't really see it being a problem. On the ground Bones is probably going to end up on top, but Shogun is very good of his back.
Beating guys like Randleman and Arona, I'm not going to shit myself even if Shogun gets taken down early in the fight. As I mentioned earlier, Shogun is the first BJJ BB Bones is facing so it'll definitely be a huge step up the competition on the mat as well.
Only way I see Bones beating a healthy Shogun is by getting him down and using those vicious fightending elbows. The chances that is happening I don't think are very big, but we'll find out next weekend. I'm having my money on Shogun for some (hopefully) easy money, lets see how it plays out.