Sarin Gas Attack in Syria

And here lies the problem - if we redraw these countries according to religious lines (Kurds are for all practical purposes a separate groups despite being sunni), it means the Shiites realized their millennia old goal - a connected sliver of territory from the Zargoz mountains in Iran through the Fertile Crescent to the shores of the of the Mediterranean.

And nominal US allies - Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Kuwait want to prevent this exact scenario by having sunnis (whether they’re “moderate” rebels or ISIS) control the Western part of Syria (“useful Syria” according to French colonial officers) and threaten infidel (shia) territory in Lebanon and the Mediterranean coast. Remember, radical sunni Islamists (and their Gulf financiers) hate the West with a passion, but the real doctrinal hatred is reserved for heretic infidels (Shiites) who learned the word of God and then apostatized by following a false prophet.

This geopolitical goal of the peoples inhabiting the Zargoz highlands (Persians, Medeans, Parthians) predates Islam by more than a thousand years - the Persian Empire undertook repeated invasion of the Roman province of Syria to try to reach the shores of the Mediterranean.

That’s why Turkey launched the Euphrates Shield invasion, not to fight ISIS but prevent the Iranians having an unbroken link with the Mediterranean through the Kurdish-held territory.

Just look at the map and how the Turks (grayish) drove a wedge between two parts of Kurdish territory (yellow) to thwart the Shiites. That’s why Aleppo, Hama and Homs are so important strategically - you can see the major highway connecting the coastline (Tartus and Latakia) and the Shiite Hezbollah strongholds through Assad-held territory (red) to the Kurds and further east to shia-dominated Iraq and Iran.

The Iranians struck a deal with the Kurds - I guess the Kurds got tired of being slaughtered by their nominal coreligionists, whether they’re Turks, ISIS or “moderate rebels”.

The Turks are livid because any form of Kurdish statehood/autonomy clashes with their neo-Ottoman ambitions and serves as a rallying point for millions of Kurds living inside Turkey - the main tenet of Turkish foreign policy in the near-abroad is “no Kurdish controlled territory”.

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My first reaction when I first even heard of ISIS was “arm these guys and sent them to fight Iran”. Maybe it’s really what’s going on. ISIS would have benefited from not attacking the West. They took on way to many enemies all at once so the whole world is pretty much against them: Iran and it’s allies, the West, Russia, China even though they have their differences.

My problem with this whole thing is the so-called War on Terror is it could have allied a lot of old Cold War enemies and forged new alliances, but, like I said above, sometimes we are fighting terrorists, other times we are helping them. And by terrorists I mean the Sunni, al-qaeda, ISIS brand at this point. The guys who attacked New York and their ideological offspring. Since they are at war with the world and not just focusing on irradiating Israel, they seem to me to be the logical global terrorist enemy.

I can answer the question of temporary power. NATO or UN will probably be running the show until most of the people can agree with a style of leadership for them.
After that, who ever or how ever they rule, they will be west friendly. They don’t have to embrace our values, but they have to respect them.

There is definitely a cold war by proxy going on. It is different though.
We were who we were back then and so are ‘they’. But we wouldn’t be at each other’s throat had it not been for those islamafacists declaring there stupid jihad. That problem has to be dealt with first.

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Who gives a shit. He never hid who he was. He never pledged isolationism. ‘America first’ never meant America only. So fuck them.

Good info loppar. I appreciate your regional knowledge.

I was just posting an article that pertained to the thread. I imagine Trump will give a shit if he starts bleeding his base though…many of who obviously felt that he meant “America only”. He may pick up a few new supporters though.

Like a hooker, Pat…only as long as huge amounts of American resources, money and blood continue to be sent their way.

Otherwise, it won’t happen.

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Every time the UN has become involved in the “peace process” whether it was in Lebanon in the 80’s or Iraq in the 00’s they have been attacked by terrorists and their hq’s destroyed, and employees kidnapped and killed. These animals have no respect for the UN.

I found this list of questions helpful.

I gotcha. No offense intended.

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Lol… good analogy. It’s going to et way uglier before it gets better. There is no side stepping Syria and there never was. Syria is the key to the ME. What happens there will define the rest of ME policy.
Morr blood, more bombs, more war. Be ready, it is inevitable. It was the moment Assad started murdering protesters.

Actually, no. Assad(s) have been murdering protesters for decades. Them being really good at murdering people kept Assad Sr. and later Assad Jr. in power. You don’t think that a quasi-heretic Shiite sect like the Alawites who made up roughly 10 percent of pre-war Syrian population could cling to power without some serious murdering?

And in the Assad clan, this is the go-to guy for killing a lot of poor, pious sunni Muslims:

Syria it at the religious fault line, it’s just that Hafez and Rifaat al-Assad were better at the whole murdering thing. They killed up to 40k people in Hama in 1982.

1.) All of them
2.) Murica
3.) see above
4.) Don’t matter
5.) see above
6.) see above
7.) all of the countries that want to be invited to our July 4th party
8.) trivial-what matters is that we go to war
9.) ain’t none
10.) Murica and tons of dead Russians/Costs don’t matter
11.) We should use nuclear weapons right now.
12.) Murica x 3
13.) Constitution
14.) Murica don’t fail

Perceptive list.
Astute and insightful.
Really taking the long view.
Hawkish but, like a really, really smart fox-hawk who understands war.
Nick, you should be on the National Security Council.

Number seven, points given for humor. Very funny.

It’s a good list of questions, right?

For people trying to match up the questions with Nick’s very astute analysis and answer key. Here they are, from The Federalist article.

Here are 14 questions that proponents of war in Syria must answer before anyone considers whether military intervention to remove Assad is the best course of action for the American people.

  1. What national security interest, rather than pure humanitarian interest, is served by the use of American military power to depose Assad’s regime?

  2. How will deposing Assad make America safer?

  3. What does final political victory in Syria look like (be specific), and how long will it take for that political victory to be achieved? Do you consider victory to be destabilization of Assad, the removal of Assad, the creation of a stable government that can protect itself and its people without additional assistance from the United States, etc.?

  4. What military resources (e.g., ground troops), diplomatic resources, and financial resources will be required to achieve this political victory?

  5. How long will it take to achieve political victory?

  6. What costs, in terms of lives (both military and civilian), dollars, and forgone options elsewhere as a result of resource deployment in Syria, will be required to achieve political victory?

  7. What other countries will join the United States in deposing Assad, in terms of military, monetary, or diplomatic resources?

  8. Should explicit congressional authorization for the use of military force in Syria be required, or should the president take action without congressional approval?

  9. What is the risk of wider conflict with Russia, given that nation’s presence and stake in Syria, if the United States chooses to invade and depose Assad, a key Russian ally in the Middle East?

  10. If U.S. intervention in Syria does spark a larger war with Russia, what does political victory in that scenario look like, and what costs will it entail?

  11. Given that Assad has already demonstrated a willingness to use chemical weapons, how should the United States respond if the Assad regime deploys chemical, biological, or nuclear weapons against the United States?

  12. Assuming the Assad regime is successfully removed from power, what type of government structure will be used to replace Assad, who will select that government, and how will that government establish and maintain stability going forward?

  13. Given that a change in political power in the United States radically altered the American position in Iraq in 2009, how will you mitigate or address the risk of a similar political dynamic upending your preferred strategy in Syria, either in 2018, 2020, or beyond?

  14. What lessons did you learn from America’s failure to achieve and maintain political victory following the removal of governments in Iraq and Libya, and how will you apply those lessons to a potential war in Syria?

Until these questions are answered with specificity, and until the U.S. government is open and honest with the American people about the potential risks and likely costs of a war to remove Assad from power in Syria, it makes little sense to discuss the idea further.

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  1. Syria, or the fertile coast of Syria - the only part of it that matters - can be either Shiite/Alawite or Sunni. If it’s Sunni (rebels), it means it will be much, much conservative and under Saudi/Qatari influence. Future breeding ground for radical Islam

If it’s Shiite and Kurds (still) have a deal with Iran and control Rojava, Iranian has access to the Mediterranean.

Choose the lesser evil.

  1. Dunno. The problem of radical salafi Islam should be resolved in Riyadh, not Damascus.

  2. Syria can be either Sunni or Shiite, with the former more probable - unless you try to “freeze” the partition with some quasi peace plan charade.

  3. Turkey and every other Gulf State, unless Turkey cuts a very generous deal with Russia and gets a free hand against the Kurds. All Kurds.

  4. Putin will try to bluff and probably start another crisis in Europe. Mind you, Putin would sell out Assad today if he’s offered a good deal in Europe.

  5. Assad is not a religiously motivated terrorist. He’s a bloodthirsty dictator, and like all dictators he prefers to kill his own subjects as it’s less risky. He’s not a religious fanatic and he still hopes he can get out of this alive, and live out his retirement in France, like his uncle. He knows he’d be dead if he tried anything against the US.

  6. Gulf states will push for Sunni-dominated elections, surviving Christians will flee and Alawites are fucked.

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@loppar
Did Assad exhibit these genocidal tendencies in the past? Without research, I was thinking he was a dentist in London and removed from the psychopathy of his father.

Has he gone nutty or is he more of figurehead?

I would be very interested to hear his take as well, although I am not sure its nuttiness so much as power lust combined with a desire not to end up on the end of a noose.

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First of all, he’s not nutty. It’s just that, like his father and other ME/African dictators he simply doesn’t care about civilians, including women and children, from the “other side”, meaning sunnis.

Assad and his tribe are fighting for their very survival. If Assad loses, they’re finished and pretty much face extermination. This of course doesn’t justify genocide and his gassing of women and children, but I’m just saying how things stand - it’s simply cold, brutal logic that’s foreign to Western sensibilities.

Another inconvenient fact is that Syrian Christians, who threw their lot with Assad because they had no other option, are on the sunni " kill them all" list.

That’s why Arab Christians are extremely angry at the US, as they believe US foreign policy is aligned with Saudi interests, which includes extermination and/or ethnic cleansing of “infidels” everywhere.

To illustrate how Assad’s regime is considered an anomaly in the ME, here’s a excerpt from Wikipedia:

In 1970 Air Force General Hafez al-Assad, an Alawite, took power and instigated a “Correctionist Movement” in the Ba’ath Party. The coup of 1970 ended the political instability which had existed since independence. Robert D. Kaplan compared Hafez al-Assad’s coming to power to “an untouchable becoming maharajah in India or a Jew becoming tsar in Russia—an unprecedented development shocking to the Sunni majority population which had monopolized power for so many centuries”. In 1971 al-Assad declared himself president of Syria, a position the constitution at the time permitted only for Sunni Muslims. In 1973 a new constitution was adopted, replacing Islam as the state religion with a mandate that the president’s religion be Islam, and protests erupted. In 1974, to satisfy this constitutional requirement, Musa as-Sadr (a leader of the Twelvers of Lebanon and founder of the Amal Movement, who had unsuccessfully sought to unite Lebanese Alawites and Shiites under the Supreme Islamic Shiite Council) issued a fatwa that Alawites were a community of Twelver Shiite Muslims.

Under the authoritarian, secular Assad government, religious minorities were tolerated more than before but political dissidents were not. In 1982, when the Muslim Brotherhood mounted an anti-government Islamist insurgency, Hafez Assad staged a military offensive against them known as the Hama massacre.

In Hama Hafez killed up to 40k Sunnis. Sunnis duly noted their casualties and raised their sons to remember and wait for the chance to strike back against the Alawite heretics - and they got the chance 32 years later.

Also from Wikipedia:

In 1936, six Alawi notables fearing persecution of their religion, petitioned the French colonialists not to merge their Alawi enclave with the rest of Syria, insisting that “the spirit of hatred and fanaticism embedded in the hearts of the Arab Muslims against everything that is non-Muslim has been perpetually nurtured by the Islamic religion.” According to Worth, later fatwas declaring Alawi to be part of the Shia community were by Shia clerics “eager for Syrian Patronage” from Syria’s Alawi president Hafez al-Assad who was eager for Islamic legitimacy in the face of the hostility of Syria’s Muslim majority.

So the only difference, as I stated before, is that Assad Jr. is less competent at killing people, otherwise he would have efficiently quashed the Sunni protests like his father - with mass murder and Soviet-style purges.

There are many reasons why Syria exploded now - radicalization of the Sunni majority, economic problems in the inefficient socialist economy, but the main reason is that the collapse of the Soviet Union left Syria without a major power to prop them up.

Assad and the Baathist Party enthusiastically embraced socialism in the 60ies, partially because it was trendy in the Arab world and partly to get Soviet backing.

When USSR collapsed, Syria was left out in the open, with the Sunnis slowly sharpening their proverbial knives for the big showdown with Alawite heretics.

So the secular Assad family suddenly declared themselves super religious and remembered that they’re a rogue Shiite sect - they were desperately looking for allies and who was available? The Shiite power Iran.

Iranians weren’t too thrilled about accepting into their fold rogue heretics, but as they themselves were numerically and economically inferior to the Sunnis and collapsing under the sanctions they were willing to put religious differences aside, as there aren’t any other potential allies.

At the start of the Syrian civil war, Assad’s Army showed themselves spectacularly incompetent - remember, it’s not that Assad Jr. is more bloodthirsty than his father, it’s just that he’s not good at effectively killing people.

Press ganged Sunni conscripts started deserting Assad’s Army and the Alawites suffered catastrophic losses - allegedly up to a third Alawite military age men were killed. So the regime lashed out like all regimes do when facing imminent collapse - by killing civilians, either with chlorine or barrel bombs.

Seeing the collapse of the regime, Iran immediately dispatched Hezbollah fighters and the Revolutionary Guard to prop up Assad and his Alawites. And that’s where we stand now…

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